Fantasy baseball daily notes for April 7
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In an effort to serve daily fantasy players and season-long fantasy players who use daily lineup settings, we present daily notes each day of the season. It's a daily version of our Fantasy Forecaster in which we project the best pitcher game scores as well as the best team hitting matchups based upon a number of factors.
The first week of the baseball season is unique in that each team's starting rotation is more or less on the same schedule, with all of the aces pitching early in the week and the lesser hurlers following in the days after. By the time we get to Thursday, the elite tier is a wasteland. Only one hurler cracks the 60 Game Score threshold, and only two come in above 51. But you need not worry -- you'll have to be a little more creative when filling out those DFS lineups and plucking streamers off the waiver wire. Let's dive in.
Pitching
Elite
Sorry, folks. Nothing to see here.
Solid
With a 61 Game Score for his home start against the Red Sox, Danny Salazar is the closest you'll get to an elite option on Thursday. The Red Sox make a lot of contact, but the Indians right-hander can miss bats with best of them, so his ceiling remains high. His 25.8 strikeout percentage ranked top-five in the American League last year. Pitching at Progressive Field, where he held a 2.98 ERA in 2015, Salazar is the clear-cut top option of the day. Given the lack of high-end options on the rest of the slate, there's little reason not to spend up for him in cash games.
The Yankees scored the second-most runs in baseball last season, and aside from the addition of Starlin Castro at second base, the starting lineup is largely unchanged. That presents a tough matchup for Mike Fiers, who has never faced the Bronx Bombers in his career. Still, Fiers did a good job neutralizing left-handed bats in 2015 (.287 wOBA), which sets him up well against a Yankees lineup that features seven left-handed and switch-hitters. If he can avoid the long ball, which is no easy feat at Minute Maid Park, he's a fine midtier option who has whiffed more than a batter per inning in his career.
John Lackey will make his Cubs debut Thursday. With a road outing against a Diamondbacks team that scored the second-most runs in the National League last year, he's got his work cut out for him. The right-hander figures to show some regression this season after posting an unrepeatable 83 percent strand rate last year that was the second highest in baseball, but the skills are still solid and he limits damage by limiting walks. On a normal slate, Lackey would likely get lost in the shuffle, but today he's one of the stronger DFS options. However, it's worth noting that, over the course of his career, April has been Lackey's worst month, as he sports a 4.53 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 47 April starts.
The Angels lineup struggled against left-handed pitching last season (.293 wOBA) and doesn't offer much thump after Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, so Derek Holland looks to be in a favorable spot on Thursday. But there's risk, too. The left-hander has been hit hard by the Angels in his career (5.32 ERA), and his hard-contact percentage of 35 percent in 2015 would've ranked second worst in all of baseball had he qualified. With a 6.2 K/9 the last two seasons, the strikeout potential is also lacking. If you drafted Holland, there's nothing wrong with throwing him out there in deeper seasonal leagues, but the DFS appeal is limited.
Ubaldo Jimenez actually pitched better at Camden Yards in 2015 (3.68 home ERA vs. 4.44 road ERA), and he features plenty of strikeout potential against a Twins lineup that fanned 21.2 percent of the time versus righties last year and added free-swinger Byung Ho Park over the offseason. With a career 4.1 walk rate, Jimenez can't be considered safe, but he displayed improved control and did a good job limiting hard contact in 2015, so he'll be a quality option if he can carry those gains into this season.
Spot starters and streamers
Hector Santiago just narrowly misses the Solid tier for his home outing against the Rangers. With Santiago, there's always some risk because he doesn't have great control and can be hurt by the long ball because he gives up so many fly balls. On the other hand, he generates solid strikeout totals and pitches in a friendly home environment, where he posted a 2.65 ERA last season. A matchup versus a lesser offense would be more ideal, but Thursday's pickings are slim.
A popular sleeper pick in drafts, Adam Conley gets a tough road start against the Nationals, a team that sported the best wOBA (.327) in the National League against left-handed pitching in 2015. Although he has only 67 career big league innings under his belt, he's pitched well in that limited exposure, sporting a 7.9 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. More impressively, he allowed only 21.7 percent hard contact, which would have ranked second in baseball behind only Dallas Keuchel had he pitched enough innings to qualify. Conley isn't the safest of streamers given the opponent and lack of track record, but he's still a decent option in deeper formats.
Squaring off at AT&T Park are Jake Peavy and Alex Wood, both of whom register identical 48 Game Scores. Peavy's strikeout rate has been dwindling for years, which leaves his upside non-existent in both seasonal and daily leagues. However, he has great control and thrives at AT&T, where owns a 2.43 ERA over his last 17 starts. Wood has also seen his strikeout rate dip, but he produced a career high ground ball rate (50 percent) in 2015 is facing a Giants team that was middle-of-the-road against lefties last year. It's a coin flip if you're chasing wins, but both are decent bets for quality outings.
He's strictly a GPP play, but Rubby De La Rosa has swing-and-miss stuff when he's on his game, and the Cubs are a swing-and-miss team, striking out at an MLB-worst 24 percent clip in 2015. Of course, De La Rosa has trouble getting lefties out, and the Cubs lineup is left-handed heavy, so this one also has the potential to get ugly.
Hitting
With Anthony DeSclafani sidelined with an oblique injury, the Reds are calling up Robert Stephenson to start Thursday. While Stephenson is a highly regarded prospect, he's a potential liability in the big leagues right now, as he's failed to show even average control in the upper minors, sporting a 4.7 walk rate between Double- and Triple-A in 2015. The Phillies don't have an overpowering lineup, but they could put up plenty of runs if Stephenson has trouble finding the plate.
Stephenson's opponent on Thursday, Charlie Morton, is another starting pitcher to target. Left-handed batters blasted him to the tune of a .384 wOBA in 2015, making Joey Votto and Jay Bruce intriguing DFS plays. Morton does generate plenty of grounders, which limits the home run potential a bit, but this is still a guy who was one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball last year with a 4.81 ERA over 23 starts. The Reds batters will get their licks in.
De la Rosa surrendered a .404 wOBA to left-handed hitters in 2015, including 20 home runs allowed, and the Cubs lineup is full batters that hit from the left side. This is also a matchup that takes place at the hitter-friendly Chase Field. In other words, this is a prime stacking opportunity. Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber are all in play here.
Most likely to go yard: Anthony Rizzo. As noted above, left-handed batters tend to tee off against Rubby de la Rosa, who has trouble keeping the ball in the park. He allowed 32 dingers in 2015, including 20 to lefty hitters. Multiple Cubs could go in this spot, but the nod goes to Rizzo, who's whacked five homers in Chase Field over the last two years.
Most likely to swipe a bag: Jean Segura. The Diamondbacks get the highest SB score of the day (9) against the Cubs, and Segura is the most likely to take advantage. If he gets on base, he'll get the opportunity to test catcher Miguel Montero, who sported a 20.2 caught stealing percentage in 2015, the second-worst mark in baseball.
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