Fantasy football cheat sheet: Start, sit and more tips for Week 13
— -- Some things you can't predict -- like the Dallas Cowboys losing by one in the opener and then rattling off 11 wins in a row with a rookie fourth-round quarterback leading the way.
The Cowboys did it again Thursday night, escaping with a 17-15 win on the road in Minnesota to keep the win streak alive. It was a game that didn't feature huge stats by anyone, but Ezekiel Elliott (86 yards rushing and a touchdown) and Dez Bryant (four catches, 84 yards and a touchdown) both came out just fine.
For those things that are a little easier to predict than the magical Cowboys season, our team of Insiders has a whole bunch of tips and nuggets you don't want to miss.
Also, be sure to take advantage of our Roster Advisor tool to get an edge on your opponents. And for those taking part in the Eliminator Challenge, you can get an edge here, too, with the Survivor Guide.
Our weekly ESPN Insider cheat sheet provides a rundown of the greatest hits from all of our Insider fantasy football content. In this file, you'll find answers to the top questions of the week, along with injury updates, matchup advantages and wild-card plays from Eric Karabell, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Matt Bowen, Scott Kacsmar and Mike Clay. It's all the best tips, distilled into one handy file.
Here's what our experts are saying about Week 13:
Top tips
Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers
When Kaepernick took over the 49ers' starting job in the middle of the season, few would have expected him to ever emerge as a legitimate fantasy option in a weak San Francisco offense that lacks playmakers. But Matt Bowen took a closer look at the 29-year-old's recent success and expects it to continue this week and beyond.
"In Week 13, Kaepernick gets the Bears, a unit beaten down by injuries that is giving up an average of 16.4 points per game to opposing quarterbacks," Bowen writes. "In Week 14, it's an underachieving Jets defense that is giving up 16.1 points per game. Those are two pretty good matchups for the 49ers quarterback in my opinion, and that's before he sees the Falcons in Week 15. That Atlanta defense? Yeah, they are down their No.1 cornerback in Desmond Trufant and they rank dead last in the NFL vs. opposing quarterbacks, giving up an average of 20.4 points per game."
Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears
The rookie has averaged 5.1 yards per carry this season and capitalized on the opportunity to take over as the starting running back, which is bad news for the visiting 49ers this week. Scott Kacsmar sees big things for the former Indiana star.
"The 49ers have moved up to 30th in run defense but still are a good candidate to allow a big game to Howard, who has had an up-and-down fantasy season," he writes. "With the Bears missing so many offensive starters, Howard should be featured more in this matchup, one week after Matt Barkley had to throw 54 passes in a catch-up effort."
Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders
Carr's pinkie injury likely won't keep Carr from playing in Week 13 against Buffalo, but can we expect him to play like the quarterback we've relied on time and time again this season? Tristant H. Cockcroft thinks so.
"A dislocated right pinkie finger is reportedly not expected to sideline Carr for Week 13, and he'll draw one of the most favorable matchups for a quarterback, which helps to ease any performance concerns," he writes. "The past five weeks, the Bills have surrendered 91 fantasy points in four games, including 13 to Blake Bortles on his 26 pass attempts in Week 12. The Bills' cornerbacks have struggled this season, which strengthens the matchups for Carr's top two targets, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, and there's a chance Buffalo could be without Ronald Darby (concussion) this week."
Playing the matchups
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Jones didn't catch a touchdown in either of Atlanta's past two games (against Philadelphia and Arizona), but Mike Clay writes that the mini-drought has a good chance of being snapped on Sunday against Kansas City.
"The Chiefs have a quality defense, but it's no fluke that they've allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers since Week 6," writes Clay. " Marcus Peters is a quality, young corner, but the team has very little behind him at the position. Additionally, Peters does not shadow, instead lining up at left corner on 93 percent of his routes. This week, that means the likes of Phillip Gaines, Kenneth Acker and Steven Nelson will be asked to cover Jones on upward of 75 percent of his routes. If Nelson returns from injury, Jones will see Gaines on roughly half his routes, and he has been one of the league's worst cornerbacks this season. Especially off the down week against Patrick Peterson, Jones is an excellent target in DFS. Meanwhile, red-hot Taylor Gabriel will see a lot of Peters and should be downgraded."
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Rodgers looked like his old self in the Monday night road win over Philadelphia, connecting for two touchdowns with Davante Adams on his way to 313 yards passing. This week he returns home to play an undermanned Houston defense, which is one matchup Kacsmar highlights in his best daily fantasy sports matchups of the week.
"Under normal circumstances, there would never be a need to question Rodgers' fantasy prospects. However, his consistency has been lacking for the past calendar year," notes Kacsmar. "What we saw Monday night from Rodgers in Philadelphia, however, was the return of the big plays, the deadly efficiency and the pinpoint throws.
"If that Rodgers is indeed back for good, then any defense is at risk for a long day. The Houston defense minus J.J. Watt is just not a dominant unit, and Rodgers should have a field day at extending the play at home. Stack him with Jordy Nelson and hope for the return of the long touchdown bomb from those two. Only one of Rodgers' passing touchdowns this season has gained at least 30 yards, and that was a 31-yard screen to James Starks on which Washington blew the coverage."
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Fitzgerald was targeted a season-low four times in the loss to the Falcons last week and his last touchdown came way back in Week 5 against San Francisco. So why is Fitzgerald still a money play this week? Clay provides the answer.
" Josh Norman occasionally shadows on the perimeter, but he rarely travels to the slot," writes Clay. "It's there that Fitzgerald has lined up on 65 percent of his routes this season. Instead, Fitzgerald will run roughly two-thirds of his routes against the rookie [Kendall] Fuller. Fuller has struggled in coverage this season, including recent rough displays against Stefon Diggs, Randall Cobb and Dez Bryant. Fitzgerald will draw Norman at least occasionally on the perimeter, but that is more than offset by his matchup with Fuller and the occasional route against struggling Bashaud Breeland. Fitzgerald is a WR1 in season-long leagues this week and a quality DFS play."
Injury impact
Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
The shocking news on Thursday of Gronk's need for back surgery means that the star tight end is almost surely done for the season, leaving the Patriots to turn to veteran Martellus Bennett.
"It doesn't help losing great players, and to not have Gronk out there -- one of our best players and one of our most dependable, consistent players -- makes things challenging for us," quarterback Tom Brady told Westwood One Radio on Thursday night. "But that's what the NFL season is about. It's about overcoming challenges, adversities."
See the "big question of the week" below for more on Bennett's value going forward.
Trevor Siemian, QB, Denver Broncos
Siemian was officially ruled out for Sunday's game against Jacksonville due to a left foot injury, leaving the Broncos to go with rookie Paxton Lynch for his second NFL start.
"On Friday, Siemian removed the walking boot and did some brief work on the field with head trainer Steve Antonopulos so the Broncos could determine if the quarterback should try to practice," writes Broncos NFL Nation reporter Jeff Legwold. "After the short workout, the Broncos decided that Lynch will start against the Jaguars."
John Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Brown's production has markedly fallen off over the past month and he's listed as questionable for Arizona's home game against Washington. Arizona's NFL Nation reporter Josh Weinfuss explains:
"He was listed as questionable after going through a second straight practice limited after cramping resulting from the sickle-cell trait that sidelined him at halftime of Sunday's loss at Atlanta and for Wednesday's practice. Arians said Brown practiced 12 to 15 plays on Friday and the cramping did not reoccur. Because of the nature of the sickle-cell trait, Brown could suffer symptoms at any moment."
Lottery tickets
Willie Snead, WR, New Orleans Saints
Brandin Cooks and Michael Thomas tend to get more attention in fantasy circles than Snead, who is used to being? overlooked after going undrafted out of Ball State in 2014, but this is a week to lock in on Snead, according to Clay.
"Thomas had the better matchup and delivered last week, but expect Snead to be the more productive Saints receiver this time around," he writes. "Thomas and Cooks will see a lot of Nevin Lawson and Darius Slay on the perimeter, both of whom have played at a high level this season. Snead runs 80 percent of his routes from the slot and will thus see struggling Lions slot corner [Quandre] Diggs in coverage throughout most of Sunday's game. Diggs was lined up in the slot on every single one of his 249 routes faced this season. Snead gets a big upgrade this week, but Thomas and Cooks should be dinged only slightly."
Quincy Enunwa, WR, New York Jets
The Jets aren't exactly coveted in fantasy this season, but one player who has emerged is Enunwa, and Cockcroft believes he can keep it going against Indianapolis this week.
"He has scored double-digit fantasy points in three of his past five games, and this matchup gives him an outstanding chance at making it four out of six," Cockcroft writes. "Enunwa has run a team-high 89 of his 120 routes out of the slot, and the opposing Indianapolis Colts have allowed 41 fantasy points combined to slot receivers in their past four games. Overall, the Colts have served up 131 fantasy points to all wide receivers the past five weeks, fourth most in the league, despite being on bye (Week 10) for one of them."
Ladarius Green, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
Green is another player on Cockcroft's list, and the reason is the chance of a heavier workload against the New York Giants this week.
"Although he has yet to see his snap count rise significantly since his return from an ankle injury -- he played 10, eight and 12 his first three games back -- Green could finally be due for a larger role in Week 13," writes Cockcroft. "He ran 10 routes in Week 12, drew targets on three of them and caught two -- each greater than 20 yards in length. Now he'll face a New York Giants team that has allowed 9.8 fantasy points per game to tight ends the past five weeks, fifth most in the league, with their 1.35 points afforded per target third most. If you're in a pinch at tight end, Green's upside this week makes him worth the pickup."
Big question of the week
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
Brady lost his favorite target with Gronkowski likely done for the year. Now what? And how much does Brady's stock fall without Gronk? Karabell writes that the Patriots still have plenty to work with offensively, including another fine tight end.
"Brady sure isn't lacking in weaponry, so even with Gronkowski done -- yeah, in this case I'd actually cut him in fantasy re-draft formats -- they'll be fine," he writes. "Martellus Bennett is an obvious beneficiary, though let's not all go too overboard, either. He's not in my top five for this week or the rest of the season, and watching him play has been interesting. Oh, he's clearly talented. He's a big guy, fast enough, good hands, but it doesn't always seem like he wants to run awesome routes or block. There's a reason he's well traveled. Bennett is good, but I'm stopping short of expecting similar usage to Gronkowski because Brady has other choices."
