Final four ready to settle Chase

ByJOHN OREOVICZ
November 15, 2014, 5:33 PM

— -- HOMESTEAD, Fla. -- Stock car fans have two races to follow Sunday.

The Ford EcoBoost 400 (3 p.m. ET, ESPN and WatchESPN) is the 36th and final race of the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season.

But there's a race within that race: the Championship Round of the NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup, a best-finisher-takes-all battle pitting four drivers who advanced to this point through a controversial and sometimes contentious new elimination process over the past nine weeks.

NASCAR hopes those two races converge at the front of the field, with Chase-eligible contenders Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano and Ryan Newman racing for the overall win rather than just mirror driving, trying to stay ahead of their rivals.

Most observers expect the Chase cream to rise to the top.

"I do think whoever comes out as champion on Sunday probably needs to think about winning the race," remarked NASCAR chairman and CEO Brian France. "If you go through past years, those teams will be elevating their game against everybody else and those will be the teams that will be running up front most of the day.

 

"As Kevin Harvick said last week, he thought he had to win the race to get it done," France added. "I think that would probably be what you'd be expecting on Sunday."

There's no doubt that the focus Sunday will be on the championship four, but they'll have plenty of competition from the other 39 drivers in the race -- some of whom are racing with a chip on their shoulder after being eliminated from the Chase.

Chief among those is Jeff Gordon, who endured the heartbreak of being nudged out of the final four literally on the last lap of last week's race at Phoenix when Newman made a successful bump-and-run pass of Kyle Larson to secure the position he needed to advance.

Gordon claimed pole position for Sunday's 267-lap race (the 200th Cup Series pole for Hendrick Motorsports), and the four-time Cup Series champion admits he is highly motivated.

"I think even if we win this race on Sunday, that's only going to make it hurt a little more in some ways because we would have won the championship if we were [eligible]," Gordon said.

"No matter what kind of format there is, everybody's goal is to come in here and sort of spoil the championship by winning this race," he added. "There's a lot on the line for those guys, and we want to be the spoiler. There's no doubt about that."

Harvick qualified best among the four championship protagonists, slotting his Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet fifth on the grid. Brad Keselowski (Team Penske Ford) and Matt Kenseth (Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota) will start directly in front of Harvick on the second row.

Hamlin will start eighth in the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, one place ahead of Logano in a Team Penske Ford. Newman struggled in qualifying, managing only the 21st-fastest speed in his Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet.

Harvick was also fast in race trim, pacing the first of two Saturday practice sessions and running eighth in the final Happy Hour, just behind Logano. Logano incurred a flat right-front tire in the second session but recognized something was amiss and pitted before his Ford incurred any damage. Jimmie Johnson, who will start 12th, was fastest in Happy Hour.

Outside front row qualifier Kurt Busch believes his Stewart-Haas teammate is the man to beat Sunday.

"The 4 car [Harvick] has had raw speed all year," he said. "The 22 [Logano] is going to be his toughest competitor. The 11 car will surprise you, though; Hamlin is good here. And then Newman punched his ticket with consistency.

"With this new program, I think you have to go for the win, and that's where the 4, the 22 and the 11 seem to have shown more strength."

Indeed, Newman has faced scrutiny over the way he barged into the final four after a consistent but unspectacular season. He led just 41 laps all year (Harvick led 2,083 and Logano nearly 1,000) and has just four top-5 finishes with a best of third.

Logano won five races this year, Harvick four and Hamlin one.

Having survived to this point, Newman isn't giving up now.

"We've got good equipment, good cars, good people," he said. "Our pit stops have gotten better.

"It's going to be a crazy race, I think, with some crazy restarts," he continued. "I don't think your starting position defines who's going to finish there."

Despite his five wins, Logano is probably regarded as the No. 3 seed because this is his first time in a Cup Series championship showdown. At 24, Logano is at least nine years younger than his other Chase competitors, who range from 33 (Hamlin) to 38 (Harvick).

Whoever prevails will be a first-time Sprint Cup champion.

Hamlin has a mixed record at Homestead, with two Cup race wins. Last year he cruised to a dominant victory, but -- more famously -- in 2010 he struggled to a 14th-place finish and lost the championship to Jimmie Johnson after arriving in South Florida with a 15-point lead.

This year he doesn't even have that luxury, as all four Chase contenders start Sunday's race on level ground. The highest finisher in the race is the Cup Series champion.

"Really all weekend, right from the first lap of unloading, I felt like it's got the feeling that it needs to be successful on Sunday," Hamlin said.

Considered the favorite by many, Harvick has never won at Homestead, but he has finished in the top 10 for five consecutive years and has the best average finish position at the track of 8.2.

Harvick has run at or near the front of the field all season, and there's no reason to expect that to change Sunday.

"Our biggest goal is just to keep doing what we've done all year," Harvick said. "I think you have to be aggressive, and I think you also have to be smart about where you put your car and who you are around.

"You're safer in front of the pack," he added. "You have more opportunity to have a good strategy at the front of the pack and see what everybody else is doing throughout the day."

Harvick expects it to be a long and difficult race, with changing conditions thanks to the midafternoon start and a finish under cooler and darker evening skies.

"There's going to be a lot of ups and downs throughout the day, and you have to manage the things that go right and wrong all at the same time," he said. "You just keep grinding away lap after lap, and hopefully, in the end, you're where you want to be."

There's been plenty of talk for almost a year now about whether NASCAR's elimination style Chase will crown a worthy champion. By 7 o'clock Sunday evening -- weather permitting -- we'll finally have an answer.