GameDay Kickoff: New playoff contenders ready to emerge
— -- This is the last Saturday to make a September statement.
Week 4 features four games between ranked opponents, a lineup that can send teams into October with strong playoff hopes or spiraling into the shadows. The College Football Playoff selection committee takes into account the "full body of work," so how teams fare now will resonate in November. The SEC takes center stage with the most meaningful matchups this week, but each Power 5 conference has at least one key game that will affect the playoff picture heading into the heart of conference play.
Here's a look at what's at stake in Week 4, in order of importance to each Power 5 conference's playoff picture:
SEC
No. 19 Florida at No. 14 Tennessee
What it means for the winner:?Welcome to the top of the SEC East, where playoff hopes survive. The winner emerges as the front-runner to win the division, with a chance to knock off a ranked West team -- most likely defending national champ Alabama -- in the SEC title game. The pressure is on Tennessee, which put together a complete performance against Virginia Tech but struggled in wins over Appalachian State and Ohio. Florida has been here before, winning 11 straight against the Vols. The Gators won the SEC East title last season and will legitimize their chances of doing so again if they extend that streak to 12.
What it means for the loser: A loss to Florida likely isn't going to cost Butch Jones his job, but it would be the very definition of misery. Tennessee would enter October 0-1 in league play, facing back-to-back road games against Georgia and Texas A&M before coming home to play Alabama. Good luck. A Florida loss puts the Gators back to .500 at 1-1 in the SEC, and they slide out of the immediate playoff picture but certainly aren't out of it, considering the Vols' upcoming stretch.
No. 17 Arkansas vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
What it means for the winner:?The winner emerges as the No. 2 team in the conference and the SEC's best hope at dethroning the Tide. Arkansas' double-overtime win at TCU put the Razorbacks on the radar, but in order for it to mean anything, the team has to be a factor in the SEC West. A win in Arlington, and Arkansas should be 5-0 heading into a home game against Bama. The Aggies are no stranger to strong starts -- they've started 3-0 for three straight seasons -- but they tend to unravel in October. This would help give them some momentum, with something still to prove next month.
What it means for the loser:?It would be only the first loss of the season for each team, so it's not a make-or-break game for playoff hopes. Both teams still have a shot at Alabama but would definitely need to win that game to get back into the SEC race. Don't forget: Alabama has been to the playoff twice -- despite holding one loss to Ole Miss each year.
No. 12 Georgia at No. 23 Ole Miss:
What it means for the winner:?A Georgia win would cement the Bulldogs as contenders in the East after pedestrian performances in wins over Nicholls and Missouri. Georgia has a solid Power 5 nonconference win against North Carolina, which the committee will like, and a road win against an SEC West opponent would only strengthen that r?sum?. If the Rebels win, they will keep their hopes alive for a 10-win season and a shot at a New Year's Six bowl. They'll need Alabama to lose twice, though, to get back into the SEC race.
What it means for the loser: You can officially write off Ole Miss with a loss, which would drop the Rebels to 1-3 before we hit October. Georgia would be looking up at the winner of the Tennessee-Florida game in the SEC East standings and would fade into the background of the playoff conversation but not be eliminated entirely.
Big Ten
No. 11 Wisconsin at No. 8 Michigan State
What it means for the winner:?The Big Ten goes deeper than Ohio State and Michigan, and one of these two teams will emerge as the league's best shot to upend the front-runners. Wisconsin has been here before, in 2014, when it lost to the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game. The Badgers can take another step in separating themselves from Nebraska in the West division. By surviving a tough crossover game,?Michigan State proves its upset of Notre Dame wasn't a one-hit wonder.
What it means for the loser: The implications are huge for both, only because of their upcoming schedules. One loss certainly won't keep a team out of the playoff, but Michigan State still has to play Michigan and Ohio State. The Badgers have it even more difficult, as they go right from East Lansing into back-to-back games against Michigan and Ohio State, and they still have to play Nebraska.
Big 12
Oklahoma State at No. 16 Baylor
What it means for the winner:?The Big 12 has been written off in the court of public opinion, but it still has a playoff pulse. The Cowboys' only loss was due to a controversial call in a nonconference game -- a situation the selection committee will be aware of -- and they still have a shot to win the Big 12. This game is huge for undefeated Baylor, as a win could propel the Bears -- who have Iowa State and Kansas after the Cowboys -- to a 6-0 start heading into the Texas game on Oct. 29.
What it means for the loser: A loss would likely unofficially eliminate Oklahoma State from the playoff race because it will be difficult for a two-loss Big 12 champ to crack the top four without an otherwise impeccable r?sum? and a conference championship game. Baylor's margin for error of course would shrink drastically, and the Big 12's reputation would take another hit, as its highest-ranked teams would have lost in September.
Pac-12
No. 7 Stanford at UCLA
What it means to the winner:?This is a chance for Stanford to show the selection committee it can win on the road and reassert itself as the team to beat in the conference and the state, after already defeating USC last week. It's the first of back-to-back road games for the Cardinal, who face No. 9 Washington next week. Why isn't UCLA ranked? The Bruins' only loss came on the road in overtime to an undefeated A&M team in the hunt for the SEC West title. A win Saturday could get them back into the Top 25 and the playoff conversation.
What it means to the loser: A two-loss conference champion can't be ruled out of the playoff, but Stanford can attest to the difficulty of getting into the top four after losing to Northwestern and Oregon last season. The Cardinal would still have hope after starting league play 1-1 but would be under tremendous pressure heading into a game against Washington. UCLA would have two losses and still the rest of the conference schedule to play, which would leave its playoff hopes on life support.
Week 4 superlatives
Most intriguing mascot battle: The West Virginia Mountaineer vs. BYU's Cosmo the Cougar. You've seen the mountain man and his musket. Can cuddly Cosmo show he's a Big 12-caliber mascot? His team will certainly be auditioning for a spot in the league.
Can-miss game: San Jose State at Iowa State. These programs are a combined 1-5, and the Cyclones have an FCS loss on their r?sum?.
Player in the spotlight:?Florida QB Austin Appleby. Gators QB Luke Del Rio suffered a left knee sprain last week against North Texas, so Appleby, a graduate transfer out of Purdue, will start in his place. Appleby was 2-9 in 11 starts for the Boilermakers. He threw 19 touchdowns with 19 interceptions and ran for nine scores.
Matchup to watch:?Texas A&M rushing defense vs. Arkansas ground game. The Aggies appear to have made significant improvements from last season, when they allowed Arkansas 232 rushing yards. After three games, the Aggies are allowing only 131 rushing yards per game (3.2 per carry), but the Razorbacks' Rawleigh Williams ranks third in the SEC in rushing and has a Power 5-best 25 rushes on which he has gained at least 3 yards after contact.
Under the radar: Florida State at South Florida. The Noles can't let their loss to Louisville beat them twice. The Bulls are currently 23rd in ESPN's Football Power Index, the highest FPI ranking by a Group of 5 school (Houston is No. 28).
Must-win game: LSU at Auburn. The Tigers already have a loss to Wisconsin, and Auburn is trying to avoid a 1-3 start heading into October. Both of these teams should be feeling the heat.
Don't forget about:?Michigan's first Big Ten game. Expectations are soaring, but the Wolverines can't get to the playoff without first winning the Big Ten East, and it starts this weekend against Penn State. It certainly isn't a gimme, but the Wolverines are favored.
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