Hall of Fame Stock Watch: Dustin Pedroia up, King Felix down

— -- Last week, I tweeted out something to the effect of, "No player has improved his Hall of Fame chances more this year than Dustin Pedroia."

Now, that was a potentially careless tweet, as I hadn't actually studied the issue. But here's the thinking:

-- Pedroia's first 10 seasons contained a lot of Hall of Fame positives: He won an MVP award, a Rookie of the Year award, was an integral member of two World Series winners, won four Gold Gloves, made four All-Star teams and finished in the top 10 of the MVP voting two other seasons.

-- With 45.1 WAR through age 31, he was already getting close to entering the gray area of Hall of Fame candidacy. In broad terms, 70 career WAR makes you a Hall of Famer, 60 makes you a strong borderline candidate and 50 means you have to buy a ticket to get in. This isn't a strict breakdown --? Mike Mussina (83.0) and Curt Schilling (79.9) are well above the 70 threshold and haven't come close to election yet, but that's a reflection that voters haven't figured out how to properly evaluate recent starting pitchers; they're a little more generous with position players.

For example, second basemen Ryne Sandberg (67.5), Roberto Alomar (66.8) and Craig Biggio (65.1) have all made it with less than 70 WAR. Of course, WAR isn't the only consideration here and I don't imply to suggest that's the case. It's just a good starting point for discussion.

Another way to measure Pedroia's candidacy is to look at the old Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor. I don't know if the method -- he devised it decades ago -- still works, but it's a fun toy. The system awards points for various accomplishments -- 100 RBIs, MVP Awards, Gold Gloves, career milestones, etc. On his scale, 100 is a certain Hall of Famer and 70 makes him a viable candidate. Pedroia entered 2016 with 49 points, one less than Hanley Ramirez and Justin Verlander, one more than Joey Votto (all players born the same year).

In Pedroia's case, he was coming off an injury-plagued 2015 in which he played only 93 games. At age 32, he was entering the potential decline phase of his career. He'd hit .300 only once in four seasons, dropping his career average to .300. He needed a big season to re-establish himself as a potential Hall of Famer. Pedroia has responded not only with a healthy season, but an excellent one. He's contending for the batting title, will soar past 100 runs, is playing his usual superb defense and the Red Sox look as if they'll win the AL East. With 5.5 WAR, he has exceeded 5 WAR for the sixth time; all eligible second basemen with at least five such seasons except Bobby Grich are in Cooperstown.

More important, we can see that there's still fuel left in the tank. He's over 50 WAR and two more big seasons puts him at or close to 60. From there, it's hanging around long enough to compile the necessary counting stats that look impressive if not necessarily adding much more value. He's no lock -- and a knock against him will be that Robinson Cano is considered the premier second baseman of his generation (Sandberg, Alomar and Biggio hold that description as well).

On Twitter, several people mentioned Adrian Beltre and David Ortiz as two others who have helped their case. I'd suggest those two were already Hall of Fame locks and have only enhanced their reputations. As Beltre closes in on 3,000 hits, he's not only a lock but looking like a potential first-ballot selection.

So in addition to Pedroia, here are a few others who helped their Hall of Fame cases this year:

• Justin Verlander. After a poor 2014 and injury-shortened 2015, Verlander might have been on the downturn but has re-established himself as one of the league's top starters. He's up to 172 wins and will be 34 next season but should have several good years left.

• Evan Longoria. Like Pedroia, the metrics love his defense, and it remains to be seen how Hall of Fame voters will view that, but with a 36-homer season and closing in an 100 RBIs, Longoria is up to 46.5 WAR and is two years younger than Pedroia.
• Cole Hamels. I wrote about this earlier, although that was when he was still a Cy Young candidate. He has a ways to go but has been durable, has had postseason success and is up to 135 wins, giving him a good chance at 200-plus. Another World Series title would help a lot.
• Robinson Cano. He was already a 79 on the Bill James Monitor, but a 6.2-WAR season and counting has pushed him over 60 career with plenty left in the tank.
• Ian Kinsler. He's kind of a deep sleeper as he never has finished higher than 11th in the MVP voting and his all-around game is tough to measure, but he's one of those second basemen with six 5-WAR seasons. He's at 51.9 career WAR but is two years older than Pedroia.

And a few players who saw their chances hurt the most:

• David Wright. Injuries have wrecked what once seemed like a future Hall of Famer. His career longevity just won't be there.

• Joe Mauer. He had a Hall of Fame peak as a catcher that was good as any backstop, but the move to first base turned him into a borderline candidate. He hasn't been able to take advantage of baseball's home run explosion and is hitting just .263 with 11 home runs.
• Andrew McCutchen. If this is a true decline in ability, his five-year run as one of the game's best players won't be enough.
• Jonathan Papelbon. It's hard to know how closers will be viewed, and Papelbon is ninth on the all-time saves list with a 2.44 career ERA, but he looks done as a closer and 368 saves won't be enough.
• Felix Hernandez. This one hurts. He's only 30, but he clearly pitched with diminished stuff this year and you wonder how many innings are left in that arm. There's no doubt he has the peak value needed, and maybe 6-7 more seasons of being just OK would be enough.