If healthy, Josh Donaldson could be just what Indians need

ByBRADFORD DOOLITTLE
September 1, 2018, 12:46 AM

Let's start this by taking a trip to an parallel universe, one where Josh Donaldson was fit as a fiddle in spring training and remained so throughout the 2018 big league season. Here's what a dispatch from that universe might look like this evening:

CLEVELAND (AU) -- The Cleveland Indians supercharged their quest to end the franchise's 70-year World Series drought by acquiring perennial All-Star Josh Donaldson and cash from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for fringe prospects you've never heard of but the Blue Jays are very excited about.

Donaldson, 32, who won the American League MVP award just three years ago, hit .266/.369/.517 with 29 home runs and 80 RBIs for Toronto, which has entered into a rebuilding phase and has hotshot prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the pipeline as the heir apparent at third base.

Donaldson, who will be a free agent after this season, is arguably the most productive power bat to change teams during the 2018 season.

OK, back to reality. Donaldson's actual numbers this season are .234/.333/.423 with five homers and 16 RBIs. His season, which should have been a platform campaign in advance of a massive free-agent payoff, has been upended by a sore shoulder and a calf injury that has been painfully slow to heal, no pun intended. He hasn't played in a big league game since May 28, and didn't play at all until a two-game stint with Class A Dunedin, Florida, earlier this week. There's no way to know if or when Donaldson will be able to take the field for Cleveland, and we certainly don't know which version of Donaldson the Indians will see when he gets to the big club.

But the version of Donaldson presented in that fantasy news dispatch is who Cleveland just traded for. If he remains the guy who can't stay on the field, can't throw or can't run without yanking a muscle in the back of his leg, there's nothing really lost. The Indians' shot at winning the AL Central before Friday's deal was 100 percent, per my projection system. Spoiler alert: After landing Donaldson, who ranked second to Mike Trout in runs created among AL players during the five-year stretch from 2013 through last season, Cleveland's division-title probability is still 100 percent.

That's a long way of saying that bringing in Donaldson was all about setting up the Indians for October. If Cleveland can get its pitching staff up to full functionality by the postseason, the Indians will match up with anybody on that side of the ball. Cleveland will be able to roll out Cy Young candidates Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber, along with the vicious Carlos Carrasco and the underrated Mike Clevinger -- the favorite big league pitcher of skateboarding legend Tony Hawk. (Or so one would guess.)

In addition to that, the Indians can roll out a bullpen led by Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, who helped carry the Tribe to the 2016 World Series, along with in-season acquisition Brad Hand, who has 30 saves this season between San Diego and Cleveland.

It's a pretty picture that has a few smeared brush strokes, since Miller keeps ending up on the disabled list and Allen keeps struggling for clean outings. Any hopes the Indians have to snap that title drought probably still depend on that bullpen coming together, and they have a month to make it happen.

But even if it does, then Cleveland will be looking to match up with the power rosters of Boston, New York and Houston in the AL bracket -- all clubs with few roster holes to exploit. The Indians, on the other hand, have been more than a little top-heavy when it comes to their position-player group. Infielders Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor are both MVP candidates and form one of the best left-side-of-the-infield tandems we've had in the majors for some time. However, Cleveland ranks 22nd in WAR at second base, per Baseball-Reference.com, 28th in center field and 27th in right field.

Now, let's get back to our fantasy news blurb. The numbers there weren't pulled from the ether. The slash stats are precisely the projections published before the season in the 2018 Bill James Handbook, while the homer and RBI counts are also taken from that book but have been discounted by 17 percent to reflect how much time is left in the regular season. That version of Donaldson would be tied with Lindor for second on the Indians in homers, would rank third in RBIs behind Ramirez and Edwin Encarnacion -- his former Blue Jays bash brother -- and his slugging percentage would be third behind Ramirez and Lindor.

Donaldson's bat, the healthy version anyway, gives Cleveland a 1-through-6 lineup of Lindor, Michael Brantley, Ramirez, Donaldson, Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso. It's an order that stacks up nicely with that of any of the other elite teams. If Donaldson's shoulder holds up and he can play at near his old level at the hot corner, then the dynamic Ramirez can bump over to second base. That would move veteran Jason Kipnis to the bench where, to be blunt about it, he probably belongs. Kipnis has hit .230/.306/.391 since the beginning of last season and is minus-7 in defensive runs saved at the keystone during that time.

Last season, Terry Francona shifted Kipnis to center field to help address a hole at that position, one that still exists since another in-season acquisition -- Leonys Martin -- is out for the year. However, Kipnis doesn't help much defensively there, either, and his bat doesn't play anywhere given his recent percentages. The Indians have other, more versatile bench options in players like Erik Gonzalez and Yandy Diaz. That is to say, if Donaldson plays well and Kipnis doesn't get going, there might not be an obvious postseason roster spot for the longtime second baseman. His career seems to have hit a wall, which unfortunately is a fate that has befallen a lot of very good keystone players when they hit their early 30s.

You might have noticed the word "if" a lot in this analysis, because any scenario you cook up is utterly dependent on Donaldson returning to the field and doing at least a decent impression of the MVP-level performer he was in the very recent past. It might not happen. It might be the case that Donaldson tries to ramp up to postseason-type intensity and his rebellious muscles simply betray him once again.

Even if that happens, Friday's trade was a master stroke by the Indians' front office. If the deal pans out, they've added an MVP as a finishing piece to a title puzzle that is very close to complete. If it doesn't, they've still got a roster that has been good enough to lead its division by 14 games entering the final month of the season. The Indians didn't have to trade for Josh Donaldson, but there is nothing but upside in the decision to do it.

Other Friday trades

Brewers acquire LHP Gio Gonzalez, LHP Xavier Cedeno and OF Curtis Granderson. Milwaukee badly needed another starting pitcher and in Gonzalez, they added a veteran who last season was one of the top left-handers in the game. This season hasn't been so kind, as Gonzalez's walks have spiked even more than his strikeouts have fallen. His accelerating propensity for nibbling has helped keep his homers down, but Gonzalez will be moving to baseball's worst home-run park for left-handed pitchers. That said, Gonzalez was the best Milwaukee could hope to do at this juncture of the baseball calendar, and pitching coach Derek Johnson has done an amazing job of helping players brought in from elsewhere to find the best versions of themselves.

As for Cedeno, he's come out of nowhere to bolster a White Sox relief staff that has had so many transient pieces the past couple of years that the bullpen gate should have a permanent "Help Wanted" sign affixed to it. With Chicago deep into its rebuilding phase, every time a reliever displays any sign of big league competence, he's quickly handed a valise and pointed toward the nearest O'Hare-bound Uber. Many of those relievers end up in Milwaukee. Last year, it was Anthony Swarzak. This year, it's been Dan Jennings, Joakim Soria and Cedeno, 32, who has 2.84 ERA this season and has held opposing hitters to a .204 average. Jennings has struggled of late, so Milwaukee needed another lefty in back of relief ace Josh Hader.

Granderson didn't fare well after being traded to the Dodgers last season, but he still provides power and patience from the left side of the dish and fits into any clubhouse, anywhere.

Athletics acquire RHP Cory Gearrin. A week ago, you'd have thought this deal superfluous. But this week's injuries to starters Sean Manaea and Brett Anderson have left Oakland scrambling to fill innings. The A's bullpen is as deep as they come, but now some of those relievers are going to be picking up innings that had been going to the rotation. Gearrin is a journeyman, but he's thrown well for the Rangers this season, so why not?

Dodgers acquire RHP Ryan Madson. Los Angeles is scrambling to prop up a bullpen that has teetered on the edge of collapse in recent weeks. The Dodgers have been able to find relief solutions in unlikely places for years, but so far in 2018, it just hasn't worked out. By L.A. standards, Madson is a pretty high-profile fireman. He's saved 91 games during a big league career that began in 2003. He's pitched in 46 postseason games and played for championship teams in both Philadelphia and Kansas City. However, Madson fell off dramatically this season in Washington, with a 5.28 ERA that is his worst since 2006. His ERA over his past three outings is 20.25. Madson's Statcast metrics suggest those unsightly ERA numbers have been entirely justified. Madson is a proven name, but at this point, bringing him in looks like a desperation move. Of course, when it comes to middle relief, the Dodgers are nothing if not desperate, so we'll see if longtime pitching coach Rick Honeycutt can work some magic.