How could home-schooling affect LaMelo Ball's future draft stock?

ByJONATHAN GIVONY
December 4, 2017, 5:35 PM

— -- How will LaMelo Ball's withdrawal from Chino Hills High School affect his future NBA draft stock?

Ball's NCAA amateurism status was already put in jeopardy by his father's decision to create a signature shoe for him through the family's Big Baller Brand. His academic eligibility will also be scrutinized by the NCAA when the time comes, but the recent growth of the online education industry makes keeping him on track for successfully enrolling in college easier than ever.

Because he was born in 2001, Ball isn't eligible to enter the NBA draft until 2020, the calendar year in which he turns 19 years old. Being cleared by the NCAA to play at UCLA is crucial, as NBA teams are not allowed to attend high school or AAU games due to strict no-contact rules, and thus they will likely have no baseline on which to evaluate him prior to college.

There is little doubt that his brother Lonzo Ball's highly competitive schedule at Chino Hills played a role in his development as a basketball player, something from which LaMelo Ball will not benefit. Lonzo Ball played at the Adidas Nations camp in the summers of 2014 and 2015 and also was named a McDonald's All-American in 2016, all platforms at which NBA teams were able to scout and monitor his progress. LaMelo Ball may not get to play at any similar events depending on how things shake out over the next couple years.

Some of Ball's development depends on where he plays, as he's far from a can't-miss talent. Current NBA players such as the Sacramento Kings' Justin Jackson and the New York Knicks' Michael Beasley were homeschooled in high school, but they still played in competitive leagues that allowed them to test themselves weekly against their peers and continue to grow.

From what Ball showed this summer on the AAU circuit, he still has quite a bit of room to improve before he can be considered a sure-fire NBA player. His physical tools are far from elite, as he's just an average athlete, lacking great explosiveness, something that likely has a lot to do with his frail frame, which could certainly fill out in time.

Ball is fluid and shifty, playing with a natural pace while doing a nice job of changing speeds and keeping defenses off balance, with advanced ball skills and impressive footwork and creativity. However, he struggles to create his own shot effectively in the half court against better defenders, relying far too heavily on difficult floaters from well outside the restricted area.

Ball's greatest virtue, and something that will give him a chance to play at the highest levels down the road, is his tremendous shot-making ability. He has excellent balance, footwork and touch, showing the ability to make jumpers with his feet set or off the dribble from NBA range -- and even half court at times -- with impressive ease. He gets into his pull-ups out of hang dribbles naturally, showing advanced scoring instincts and unlimited confidence in his shooting ability.

That same confidence is also one of his biggest weaknesses, as he has no conscience whatsoever for when to pull up off the bounce, often settling for the first shot he can find. That wouldn't be much of a problem if he wasn't so streaky, but his jumper doesn't fall anywhere near the rate you would hope considering how selfishly he plays. Ball converted just 20 percent (14-for-69) of the jumpers he took at the Adidas Summer Championship in Las Vegas in July according to Synergy Sports Technology, struggling in particular to make shots off the bounce (4-of-27, 15 percent) in six logged games.

The low and unorthodox release point on Ball's jumper is one of the reasons for his struggles, as well as his shot selection. He has a difficult time getting his shot off when closely contested, which is one of the reasons he often prefers to take shots from such great distances, leading to his lackluster percentages.

Ball doesn't do enough other things at this stage to compensate for his all-around streakiness on nights in which his jumper isn't falling. He's a last-resort passer who wants to go into iso mode virtually every time he touches the ball, ignoring wide open teammates to take difficult shots off the dribble. This is where he most differs from his brother Lonzo Ball, who is incredibly unselfish with the ball, loves to empower his teammates and changes the game with his passing ability.

LaMelo Ball is also a highly indifferent defender with poor fundamentals, not showing much of a will to stop his opponent. He's far too focused on leaking out in transition and often doesn't get back at all after a missed shot. This is where LaVar Ball's refusal to allow him to get real coaching may hamper his development the most, as he has bad habits that will be difficult to shake by the time he arrives in college (if deemed eligible by the NCAA).

What's interesting is that LaMelo Ball has excellent natural instincts, which he shows at times by getting in the passing lanes with strong anticipation skills, coming up with blocks and finding teammates creatively on the move. He just doesn't have enough substance to his game at this stage, preferring to look for highlight-reel plays instead of trying to make winning plays, something that he may be able to develop in time.

Ball is undoubtedly a talented young player, but there are real question marks about the environment he's in and whether he'll be able to develop the all-around game he needs to reach his full potential. Some of that will depend on whether his body grows and fills out (he only turned 16 six weeks ago) and the type of coaching he receives. The next three years will be extremely important for Ball's development as a basketball player, and we'll have to see how much the distractions around him affect that.