Is Kyle Lowry the answer for upset-minded Raptors?

BySHARON KATZ AND BEN ALAMAR
May 17, 2016, 3:15 PM

— -- Despite winning a franchise-record 56 games in the regular season, the Toronto Raptors are the lone mystery team left in the playoffs. While the Golden State Warriors, Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder combined boast four of the top five players in the 2016 NBA MVP voting, the most famous person associated with the Raptors (with respect to Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan) is Drake.

In preparation for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals ( 8:30 ET, ESPN/WatchESPN), here's a guide to how the Raptors have gotten to this point and what to expect in their series against the Cavaliers.

In the new-age, pace-and-space era of the NBA, the Raptors have more of an old-school mentality. They are the second-slowest paced team and have the lowest assist rate in the NBA. Toronto also uses picks, isolations and drives at a rate unlike any other team, but that doesn't mean it is any less efficient. In the regular season, the Raptors averaged 107 points per 100 possession, which was good for fifth-best in the league.

The Raptors' offense begins and ends with the dynamic backcourt of Lowry and DeRozan. The duo scored or assisted on 59 percent of the Raptors' points in the regular season, and they increased that share to about two-thirds in their Eastern Conference semifinals series against the Heat. Although the Raptors' All-Star guards struggled early in the playoffs, they've turned a corner with a combined 181 points and 48.3 effective field goal percentage in Toronto's last three games.

The bread and butter of the Raptors' offense is their ability to put the ball on the floor and get to the rim, whether off an isolation or pick-and-roll. Toronto is averaging 0.96 points per chance off direct drives -- defined as a drive ending in a shot, foul, turnover or pass to a player who shoots within one dribble -- which ranks as one of the five most efficient teams on a per-drive basis. DeRozan, Lowry and Cory Joseph are the primary ball handlers, with DeRozan as one of the most frequent (23.8 drives per 100 possessions) and efficient (1.03 points per direct drive) drivers in the NBA.

Toronto's proficiency getting to the rim is a major reason it had the third-highest free throw rate in the regular season, and DeRozan ranked third in the league in attempts. Although DeRozan has taken more midrange jumpers than any other player, he isn't particularly effective on such shots (38.1 effective field goal percentage), so although it sounds obvious, the Cavaliers needs to force him to pull up off his drives.

Defensively, Toronto is fairly average in most statistical categories, ranking 11th in points per 100 possessions and 14th in effective field goal percentage allowed. Lowry is among the most proficient players at forcing steals and Bismack Biyombo acts as a vital rim protector. In the playoffs alone, opponents have a field goal percentage that is 18 percentage points lower in the restricted area with Biyombo on the court, as compared to when he is on the bench.

The biggest question for the Raptors heading into their series with the Cavs is health. At some point in the Heat series, there were questions about the health of Jonas Valanciunas (ankle), DeMarre Carroll (wrist), DeRozan (thumb) and Lowry (elbow). Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are well rested and healthy after playing a mere eight games in the last 30 days.

If Valanciunas remains out of the lineup, which it appears he will at least for Game 1, the Cavaliers can afford to go small with Kevin Love or Channing Frye as the five, which is the lineup that has been raining 3-pointers in these playoffs. Without a true center, the Cavs are averaging an unreal 1.25 points per possession with a 61.8 effective field goal percentage in their first two series. This lineup could also force Biyombo to the bench, which would open up the lane for LeBron James or Kyrie Irving to drive and shoot or drive and kick -- a play that has yielded 1.3 points per possession this postseason.

Now, a three-game sample certainly is too small to make rash conclusions, especially when factoring in the number of players (Irving, Timofey Mozgov, Matthew Dellavedova, Iman Shumpert, and Valanciunas) missing when Toronto and Cleveland met on November 25. Nonetheless, the Raptors won two of three against the Cavaliers in the regular season, including both games at home.

How did they do it? Kyle Lowry.

In the three games against Cleveland, Lowry averaged 31 points, 8.3 assists and posted his best player efficiency rating against any opponent this season. From the Cavaliers' perspective, Lowry's effective field goal percentage of 73.0 was the highest by any player who took at least 40 shots against them. Lowry excelled against almost every Cleveland defender, but he got his highest quality shots against Irving and converted shots at the highest rate when matched up against Shumpert.

The key for Lowry was his driving ability; the Raptors outscored the Cavs by 58 points off drives, and the team shot 69.4 percent and averaged 1.7 points per chance directly off of Lowry's drives. He could again exploit this weakness if matched up against Irving, who is allowing the third-most points per direct drive among point guards this season (minimum 500 plays).

The Cavs are shooting lights-out in these playoffs, but given the quality of their shots, they should be expected to come back to earth. The ultimate decider in this series could be if the Raptors can limit LeBron's playmaking ability. Cleveland's quantified shots quality (qSQ), or their expected field goal percentage given a number of factors that impact the shots, is about 2.2 percentage points higher with LeBron on the court than with him on the bench. He is essentially the difference between Cleveland getting the fifth-best shots in the league and getting below-average shot quality.

The Raptors' top priority should remain limiting LeBron's playmaking ability with Carroll and others, which is obviously easier said than done. On the other end of the court, Lowry and DeRozan must look to drive and not settle for pull-up 2-point jumpers. Accomplish those feats and the Raptors may be on their way to their first NBA Finals in franchise history.