Should LeBron pick Cavs or Heat?

ByTOM HABERSTROH
July 9, 2014, 11:44 AM

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Indiana Pacers. (Note: the Cavs' projection included Zeller, who was only expected to produce about a win for the Cavs' bottom line. That could be replenished with a veteran at a minimum deal.)

In the aftermath of the Spurs' brilliant Finals performance, we're quick to dismiss the Heat's season as a total train wreck. But they posted the fourth-best point differential in the league last season and cruised into the Finals with relative ease. If a trip to the Finals is a failure, 28 other teams would kill for that failure.

Looking past next season, the Cavaliers might offer James more upside. Indeed, Pelton's projections have the Cavaliers eclipsing the Heat in 2015-16 as Wade and Bosh age, but there's way too much uncertainty a year from now to make any hard conclusions in the data. In terms of basketball talent, the smart move for James might be to re-up with the Heat for a one-year deal and then revisit his situation next summer after he has seen what Bennett, Wiggins and Irving can do under Blatt's leadership. Cavs fans would be wise to postpone the Cleveland homecoming festivities.