MLB daily notes: Fantasy rankings for Wednesday

ByTODD ZOLA
May 11, 2016, 10:15 AM

— -- In an effort to serve daily fantasy players and season-long fantasy players who use daily lineup settings, we present daily notes each day of the season. It's a daily version of our Fantasy Forecaster in which we project the best pitcher game scores, as well as the best team hitting matchups based upon a number of factors.

Pitching

Elite

While there is no doubt that Noah Syndergaard has emerged as one of the top pitchers in the league, he's not above having a fault, at least in terms of DFS potential. Granted, this might change as the season progresses, but through his first six outings, Thor is averaging 6 1/3 innings per start. This is above the league average of six frames but still an out or two short of the true elite level. That might not seem like much but when you're paying the price tag associated with Syndergaard, you want every point you can get. Going deeper into the game also improves Syndergaard's chances to pick up a win. With respect to Wednesday's road date against Kenta Maeda and the Los Angeles Dodgers, runs should be scarce, giving Syndergaard motivation to get those extra outs (and DFS points). The righty sports an impressive 11.5 K/9, which will come in handy against a club that fans at an above-average 22-percent clip against right-handers.

Something has to give in the nation's capital as the Detroit Tigers continue an interleague tussle with Max Scherzer and the Washington Nationals. Scherzer has contracted a bad case of gopheritis, and the Tigers rank in the top third of the league in home run percent against right-handers. On the flip-side, the men from Motown whiff at a 24-percent rate against righties. Scherzer hasn't been nearly as sharp as usual, carrying a 9.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 into this contest, which makes him a risky cash candidate but strong GPP option.

In the most intriguing affair on the docket, the Toronto Blue Jays go from facing veteran right-handers past their prime to a southpaw in the midst of it. Madison Bumgarner will take the hill at AT&T Park to face the underperforming but still dangerous righty-heavy Blue Jays. The visitors are whiffing at a healthy 24-percent pace against southpaws, which meshes with Bumgarner's hefty 11.5 K/9. Plus, the venue suppresses power, which makes the San Francisco Giants ace a definite tournament option.

Continuing the theme of strikeout potential but risky matchup, Danny Salazar toes the Minute Maid Park rubber as the Cleveland Indians visit the Houston Astros. Regular readers of this space know the drill; Houston is among the league leaders in strikeouts facing right-handers, but they're also capable of scoring runs in bunches. Add Salazar to the list of GPP choices.

Solid

Fret not, cash-game players: You also have some strong options. However, two of the better ones are mound foes as Chris Archer leads the Tampa Bay Rays into Safeco Field to challenge Taijuan Walker and the Seattle Mariners. Strictly going by early season numbers, Walker is in the better spot as the visitors are toting a below-average 0.297 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against right-handers along with a generous 27 percent strikeout rate. That said, most consider Archer to be the superior pitcher, but he's facing a squad with 0.328 wOBA against righties in tandem with a league-average strikeout rate. Given home-field advantage, let's give Walker the edge and call him a solid choice for both cash and tournament action.

Jerad Eickhoff has pitched better than his 4.21 ERA suggests, as he has been victimized by a low left-on-base percentage. Depending on the DFS site's pricing algorithm, the sage DFS player can use this to their advantage as the salary is often out of sync with the hurler's true potential. Factor in that Eickhoff will face the suspect Atlanta Braves in Turner Field, and the Philadelphia Phillies curveball specialist is ideal for cash action.

John Lackey already has an attractive matchup against the strikeout-prone San Diego Padres in Wrigley Field. But because he's working in the nightcap of a split twin bill, the visitors may opt to sit some regulars, rendering an already non-daunting lineup even less threatening. Regardless, the Chicago Cubs veteran right-hander is in the mix for all DFS formats.

Streamers

Don't be discouraged by  Wei-Yin Chen's low 5.9 K/9. Previous to his whiff-less, five-inning stint against the Philadelphia Phillies last time out, the Miami Marlins lefty was sporting a more reasonable 7.1 mark. Chen is in a good spot to push that back up with a home date against the Milwaukee Brewers on the docket. Chen checks in with 58 percent ESPN ownership so hurry and check your waiver wire if you want a nice mid-week streaming option.

As has been alluded to in past notes, the main advantage to a systematic ranking approach is that spreadsheets don't get overly influenced by recency bias. Lately, Rick Porcello has been really, really good. In fact, dating to last season's All-Star break, the Boston Red Sox right-hander has recorded a nifty 9.0 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 spanning 17 starts, 11 of which lasted at least seven innings. The only wart is a high home run rate, which is what is tempering his projected game score. On paper, that shouldn't be an issue as the opposing Oakland Athletics are below average with respect to homers against right-handers, and while O. Co. Coliseum has something to do with that, Fenway Park depresses lefty power even more.

Speaking of high home run rates,  Jhoulys Chacin's 9.1 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 are quite good but he's sporting a 5.40 ERA primarily due to a 1.4 HR/9. The Philadelphia Phillies visit Turner Field to take on the Atlanta Braves, bringing along one of the league's lowest home run rates against righties.

Avoid

Your mileage may vary but there's something uneasy about  Phil Hughes' fly-ball offerings against the Baltimore Orioles, even in Target Field.

As expected, once Mat Latos started facing more formidable offenses, especially on the road, the regression monster was going to reveal his ugly head. With an away date in Arlington against the Texas Rangers, the correction continues.

Remember when the humidor was a thing? Coors Field, Chad Bettis and Robbie Ray, you know the drill.

Small-sample-size alert: Eric Surkamp has walked 12 while punching out only nine in 19 1/3 innings. Still, even though the Boston Red Sox have had issues with southpaws, Surkamp is far too risky to tempt fate.

Hitting

To be honest, there aren't a lot of opportunities for team stacks Wednesday, which means looking for a couple of players on a team to pair or eschewing stacks and finding individual hitters in great spots.

Of course, Coors Field is the exception, which means high ownership for the Rockies and Diamondbacks. With right-handers Chad Bettis on the bump for the home team, lefty swingers Jake Lamb and David Peralta (if healthy, he has been sidelined because of a sore forearm) will be popular. One way to counter is eschew the platoon edge and use Brandon Drury, Welington Castillo or of course, Paul Goldschmidt. Similarly, Colorado Rockies righties Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story and Mark Reynolds will be heavily owned against southpaw Robbie Ray, so the swerve is going against the grain with the rare lefty-on-lefty play of  Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon or Gerardo Parra.

Those fading Coors probably will land in Fenway Park to stack Red Sox right-handers Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez and possibly Chris Young against lefty Eric Surkamp.

A Miami Marlins' mini-stack including left-handers Derek Dietrich, Christian Yelich and Justin Bour should be effective versus Milwaukee Brewers righty Chase Anderson in Marlins Park.

Most likely to hit a home run: Let's call this perhaps not the most likely to hit a home run but a great spot to use a contrarian option in a good spot while others are stacking. Jhoulys Chacin's issues with the long ball were previously discussed. Ryan Howard might not be doing much these days, but he does have seven homers and is in a decent position to add another.

Most likely to steal a base: Chase Utley might not be fleet afoot, but he's still a smart baserunner, capable of swiping a bag in the right situation. With Syndergaard on the hill, the situation is perfect as the Mets' righty has already witnessed 14 successful pilfers against him this season.