NFL Week 3 upset picks

Here's one of the best-kept secrets of the football world over the past couple of years: The Washington Redskins are not a bad football team.

Two years ago, Washington went 8-7-1 and ranked in the top 10 by Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings ( explained here). Washington looked worse than it really was because of a difficult schedule, ranked No. 3 in the NFL by average DVOA of opponent.

Last season, Washington dropped to 7-9 but was still ranked 16th by Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings. Once again, Washington looked worse than it really was because of the No. 3-toughest schedule.

This year, Washington has started 1-1. The schedule is not an issue this season, but the Redskins rank 17th in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings through two weeks.

Washington is not a bad football team -- it's a mediocre team that can steal some games at home. So can the Redskins pull off a shocker on Sunday, even against a great quarterback in  Aaron Rodgers?

Upset watch: Washington Redskins (+3) vs. Green Bay Packers

Here's a surprise: Through the first two games of the season, Washington ranks higher in DVOA than Green Bay, which is only 23rd. The Packers have played two close games and, while they managed a win and a tie, they had the lower DVOA rating in each contest.

The gap between the Packers and the Vikings was particularly strong. Minnesota gained 7.1 net yards per play and converted 50 percent of third-down opportunities. Green Bay gained just 5 net yards per play and converted 31 percent of third-down opportunities.

Green Bay built its lead, in part, with a great blocked punt that turned into a touchdown. This is what we at Football Outsiders call a "non-repeatable" play. There are some huge plays in football that don't have any predictive value for the future. That doesn't mean these plays are "lucky" -- that blocked punt took plenty of skill. But blocked punts are so rare that having one doesn't indicate that Green Bay is much more likely than any other team to have a blocked punt in the future.

The Packers also took advantage of three missed field goals by kicker Daniel Carlson. Defense really has no control over missed field goals unless they are blocked.

Despite all of this, it's still fair to believe that Green Bay is a better team than Washington. The Packers have played tougher opponents than Washington so far this season, and nearly all preseason projections had Green Bay as the better team. In the Football Outsiders DAVE ratings, which combine our preseason projections with play so far, the Packers are No. 10 and Washington is No. 15. That's enough to make Green Bay a favorite on a neutral field, but it's not enough to make the Packers the favorite on the road, let alone to give them three points.

To pull off the upset, Washington needs to do two things: improve play in the red zone and get pressure on Rodgers.

So far this season, Washington's DVOA in the red zone ranks 27th on offense and 24th on defense. Its DVOA on the other 80 yards of the field ranks 18th on offense and fourth on defense. Red zone performance is much more variable than performance overall, so those ranks are likely to improve for Washington in future weeks.

This is particularly true on defense. Against Indianapolis, Washington forced four three-and-outs and snagged two interceptions. The problem was that most of the Colts' yards were packed into three 75-yard touchdown drives. Imagine if the Colts' successful plays were more evenly distributed throughout their drives. That would mean more long drives but more drives that stalled out with punts or field goals. If Washington's defense plays a more even game against Green Bay, it'll do more to prevent scoring.

Washington also needs to dial up the pressure like it did last season.

Last year, according to ESPN Stats & Information, the Redskins led the NFL with a 34.1 percent pressure rate. So far this year, they are tied for 11th with pressure on 30 percent of dropbacks. The good news is that the Packers' offensive line will allow pressure. Last year, the Packers were 29th in pressure allowed -- 34.1 percent of dropbacks to match Washington's defensive rate exactly. So far this year, the Packers are 24th, with a 31.5 percent pressure rate allowed.

Cover watch: Arizona Cardinals (+6) vs. Chicago Bears

This pick is more about the balance between what we knew about teams going into this season and how teams have played in the first two weeks of 2018. Through Week 2, the Arizona defense ranks 26th in DVOA, but the Cardinals are probably not really this bad. Arizona has been a top-four defense by DVOA for three straight years. Our projections had the Cardinals 12th in defense before the season, because of personnel changes and learning a new scheme with new head coach Steve Wilks, but 12th would be a lot better than 26th. Arizona should be a better defensive team in the long run, and that should start this week with slowing down the Chicago offense, which has ranked just 21st in offensive DVOA so far this season.

Will the high-pressure Chicago defense shut down the impotent Arizona offense? Almost assuredly, yes. Our numbers estimate that Chicago is the definite favorite, even on the road, but we estimate this line should be closer to 3 or 3.5 points. There's a good chance for a close defensive battle that could lead to Arizona covering, even if it can't win outright.