How Ohio State can beat Clemson in the College Football Playoff

BySTEVE MUENCH AND KEVIN WEIDL
December 29, 2016, 3:12 PM

— -- The College Football Playoff committee had Clemson ranked No. 2 in its final rankings. Vegas thinks No. 3 Ohio State is a slight favorite for this weekend's PlayStation Fiesta Bowl.

So who wins? Our Scouts Inc. analysts, Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl, came up with the perfect game plans for both teams (Weidl took Ohio State).

Here's what Urban Meyer and Dabo Swinney ought to be scheming to reach?the CFP title game.

Weidl: What Ohio State's offense needs to do

Get the ball to Samuel

There is no doubt Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables will have a big focus on trying to contain Curtis Samuel. So Ohio State will need to get creative in getting Samuel his touches. He brings excellent versatility with the ability to hurt teams in multiple ways. In fact, Samuel is the only player in the FBS with more than 800 yards receiving and 700-plus yards rushing. His ability to line up all over the field will allow the Buckeyes to keep the Tigers' defense on its toes.

Look for Ohio State to get Samuel on the perimeter, where he has been most effective, whether it be out of the backfield or on fly sweeps and reverses when lined up at receiver. In the passing game, the Buckeyes may look to get him in motion before the snap to seek out some favorable matchups while also dialing up combinations or rub routes in an attempt to get him some separation. Ohio State has started to get Samuel more involved as a punt returner late in the season -- look for that to continue, with him perhaps even getting some kickoff return opportunities.

Force Clemson to communicate in coverage

While Venables has been successful dialing up blitzes and generating pressure, that has also left the Tigers vulnerable for big plays in the back end. Coverage breakdowns and cutting receivers loose have both been issues for a Clemson secondary that replaced three out of four starters from last season. The Pitt game film is a perfect window into those struggles. The Panthers drew up a lot of pre-snap shifts and motions, which allowed them to manufacture several big plays throughout the contest. Ohio State would be smart to take a page from Pitt and utilize similar window dressing before the snap, which will force the Tigers to make coverage checks in an effort to create confusion. This would also help generate some separation for the Buckeyes receivers.

Provide help to Isaiah Prince

The Buckeyes' offensive line has not been exceptional in pass protection, particularly on the right side. Ohio State allowed a combined 14 sacks against Penn State and Michigan, who were the two best pass-rushing teams the Buckeyes have faced all season. Isaiah Prince really struggled protecting the edge and was often late recognizing pressures in those games. Things won't get any easier for Prince against Clemson, as he will be going up against a pair of talented defensive ends in Austin Bryant and Christian Wilkins, who has freakish athleticism for a 300-pound defensive end.

The Buckeyes could provide help for Prince by either sliding protection his way, or chipping Wilkins or Bryant with a running back, or tight end Marcus Baugh before releasing into his route. The offensive line isn't fully responsible for the Buckeyes' struggles against pressure. QB J.T. Barrett has shown some vulnerability in this area, holding the ball for too long at times, while the receivers -- outside of Samuel -- have struggled to consistently create separation. Venables has been aggressive dialing up blitzes, and?the Tigers have recorded 46 sacks this season, which trails only Florida State (47 sacks) among the best pass-rushing teams in the country. Bottom line: How well the Buckeyes can handle pressure will be one of the biggest factors in who wins?this game.

Muench: What Clemson's defense needs to do

Be aggressive with run blitzes

The top priority for any defense facing Ohio State is to slow down a run game that averages 258 yards per game. But Clemson's front four -- starting with Wilkins -- is capable of winning the battle in the trenches. Controlling the line of scrimmage helps, but it's not the biggest obstacle in defending the Buckeyes. That would be a dynamic backfield that features three talented runners: Barrett, running back/slot receiver Samuel and running back Mike Weber.

It's a no-win situation for linebackers. If they get caught guessing, that creates a seam. If they hesitate and try to decipher everything, that makes it easier for Ohio State blockers to get to them. Meanwhile, 235-pound weak-side linebacker Ben Boulware and 230-pound inside linebacker Kendall Joseph are more effective attacking and getting into gaps than they are sitting and anchoring. By being aggressive on downs with run-heavy tendencies, Venables plays to the strengths of his linebackers, which would make it tougher for Barrett to get a clear read when the Buckeyes go with the run option. The one issue here is making sure that players stay on the same page in terms of gap responsibilities and that they keep outside contain, especially when Samuel gets the ball.

Make cornerback Ryan Carter become Curtis Samuel's worst nightmare

It seems as though there's no?college safety or linebacker with the cover skills to consistently shadow Samuel in man coverage. Clemson has a few options to minimize the impact of Samuel. The Tigers could line up strong-side linebacker Dorian O'Daniel?across from him, or put a safety over Samuel and play soft zone or off man when he lines up in the slot. But that's risky. It gives Samuels space to get open underneath and asks the Tigers to tackle him one on one.

Using Ryan Carter?is the better option. He?has the quickness and athletic ability to compete with Samuel. While Carter is an effective No. 2 corner and has started 11 games this season, cornerbacks Marcus Edmonds and Mark Fields have also played well. In addition, the Buckeyes lack a true No. 2 receiver, so using Carter to shadow Samuels doesn't hurt them as much as it would against some teams. It's not ideal to play?three defensive backs against Ohio State, which?runs the ball?well, but Venables doesn't have to play five defensive backs, either -- he can play one safety high (most likely playmaker Jadar Johnson) and have the other guy match up with the receiver opposite Noah Brown.

It's also worth pointing out that Ohio State's tempo will make it tough to situationally match up with Samuel.

Drop seven on passing downs

Barrett is at his best when he recognizes a favorable matchup, gets the ball out quickly and puts his receivers in position to produce after the catch. He shows the ability to get through his progressions and locate the open man when he gets time, but he also has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long. Dropping seven and forcing him to throw into tighter windows should give the Clemson pass rush more time to get to the quarterback.

In addition, Ohio State's front five is going to have a hard time holding up against the Tigers' front four, so Venables shouldn't have to rush more than four to pressure Barrett. He can still keep Ohio State off balance by stunting and mixing in zone blitzes. It doesn't mean the Tigers can't be aggressive in coverage, either. In fact, their corners should crowd the line of scrimmage and take the occasional gamble knowing they have help over the top.

Muench: What Clemson's offense needs to do

Use option packages

Deshaun Watson has an excellent feel for when to give the ball to running back Wayne Gallman and when to keep it in Clemson's read-option package. His ability to neutralize the read by making quick, sound decisions creates favorable numbers for his blockers. Ohio State can't key in on Watson or Gallman, either. Clemson will make it difficult for Ohio State to adjust schematically and test the Buckeyes' ability to make one-on-one tackles in space by running run-pass options that give Watson the ability to throw outside.

Keep Jordan Leggett busy

Jordan Leggett?takes what the defense gives him -- he can't forget Ohio State has intercepted 19 passes this season and returned seven of them for touchdowns. That said, Leggett causes more problems for Ohio State than any other pass-catcher on the Tigers' roster, especially considering that Watson's favorite target, wide receiver Mike Williams, is going to have his hands full going up against Ohio State corner Marshon Lattimore.

Listed at 6-foot-5 and 260 pounds, Leggett is a versatile weapon who moves around the formation. His strength and athletic ability will present problems to 235-pound outside linebacker Chris Worley when he lines up in the slot, releases out of the backfield or from the traditional tight end spot. His frame will be an even greater issue for the Buckeyes if they try to match up with a defensive back when Leggett lines up out wide or in the slot. Don't be surprised to see Clemson try to isolate him out wide in the red zone with that in mind. And 6-foot-2, 200-pound safety Malik Hooker is a ball hawk with six interceptions, so Watson has to be careful not to give him an opportunity to play the ball when he's looking for Leggett. However, Leggett has a substantial size advantage, which allows him to shield smaller defenders underneath and gives him the edge in 50-50 situations downfield. So it's a matchup that Watson can exploit as long as he's accurate.

Beat the pass rush with Watson's legs

Clemson has allowed just 14 sacks this season, while Ohio State finished tied for eighth in the Big Ten with 26 sacks. The point? Keeping Watson upright, with time to find the open man, doesn't seem like a significant issue for the Tigers on paper. However, the Buckeyes' pass rush heated up down the stretch, and the game tape raises some concern about the ability of Clemson's front five to hold up. The worries start with Ohio State's personnel on downs with pass-heavy tendencies.

Defensive ends Sam Hubbard, Tyquan Lewis, Jalyn Holmes and Nick Bosa are dangerous pass-rushers with the ability to win one-on-one matchups, and playing the four of them together makes it tough to adjust the protection to help one or two offensive linemen. However, there are two ways Clemson can help its offensive line against this personnel grouping. The first is having Watson take advantage when these players get caught out of their lanes. It's important that he keeps his eyes downfield as he moves around, though, so he can decide between trying to run for the first down and finding a receiver downfield if the Buckeyes' coverage players are too quick to step up in run support.

The other way to help the offensive line is dictating tempo. Getting up to the line will make it tough for Ohio State to get their pass-rush personnel on the field. This option isn't without risk; Clemson wants to make sure it also has the right personnel on the field and makes the right play call in these situations. In addition, Watson and his receivers must stay on the same page and make sound adjustments when defensive coordinator Luke Fickell brings pressure. Holding onto the ball and using dummy counts to entice the Buckeyes to give away pressure pre-snap should help in that area.

Weidl: What Ohio State's defense needs to do

Disguise coverages

Ohio State has excellent depth and versatility in the secondary, including a pair of talented CBs in Lattimore and Gareon Conley?who provide the Buckeyes with the ability to change up and mask coverages. Turnovers are going to play a big role in the outcome of this game, and the Buckeyes have been great in that department all season. Watson has had some issues of making pre-determined reads, which has played a role in a career-high 15 interceptions this season. That said, by mixing up and disguising coverages, Ohio State will have a chance to create some momentum-shifting interceptions and potentially turn them into points.

Match up Lattimore with WR Mike Williams

The Buckeyes' back seven will match up with the explosive Tigers perimeter as well as anyone all season. While the Buckeyes' DBs are young, they have improved throughout the season and have an excellent blend of athleticism, speed and playmaking ability. Lattimore is arguably the top cover cornerback in the country, and getting him matched up with Williams as much as possible makes sense. Williams has been a headache for opposing defenses all season outside the hashes with his size (6-foot-3, 225 pounds) and strength combination to win in contested situations. Lattimore should be able to limit separation, and he has the size and ball skills to contest with Williams in jump-ball situations.

Watson has other weapons at his disposal, but he has leaned on Williams far more than anyone else this season. And if Ohio State is able to limit his impact, it would go a long way in slowing down their offense. From a scouting perspective, this battle will be arguably the best in-game matchup. Both Lattimore and Williams currently hold first-round grades, and they are at the top of their respective positions in our rankings.

Make Watson one-dimensional

Ohio State has quality depth on the defensive line, especially at defensive end. The Buckeyes will look to take advantage of this depth on third-down passing situations, in which they will get all four defensive ends on the field --?their "Rushmen" package. This should allow them to take advantage of their speed and athleticism to generate pressure on Watson.

However, in doing so, they must pay extra attention to maintaining gap integrity with their rush lanes in an attempt to keep the athletic Watson in the pocket. Late in the season, Watson has used his mobility more, and if he is able to break contain and apply stress on the Buckeyes with his legs, slowing down?this offense?will become significantly tougher, particularly in the back end.