Pelicans made right call by firing Monty Williams

— -- The New Orleans Pelicans surprised the NBA by firing coach Monty Williams on Tuesday, a little over two weeks after their season ended in a sweep at the hands of the Golden State Warriors and less than a month removed from beating the San Antonio Spurs on the final night of the regular season to clinch their first playoff trip in four years.

Was the decision a good one? Because of the difficulty in evaluating coaching -- something statistical analysis has been able to shed little light on -- it's possible to make cases both for and against Williams remaining as the Pelicans' coach. Let's take a look.

The case against Williams

One thing we do know about coaching is that coaches have more influence at the defensive end of the floor, and that's where Williams was least effective. During his five years in New Orleans, the Pelicans boasted an above-average defensive rating just one time -- 2010-11, his first season as head coach, when New Orleans actually improved from 22nd in defensive rating to ninth.

After the Pelicans traded Chris Paul and began rebuilding, they were unable to repeat that defensive success, slipping to 16th in 2011-12, 28th in 2012-13, 25th in 2013-14 and 22nd this season. In that context, it's hardly a surprise that Williams lost his job. Of the bottom 10 teams in defense during 2013-14, eight have now fired those coaches -- everyone but the Philadelphia 76ers (who improved to 13th this season under Brett Brown) and the Dallas Mavericks (who improved to 18th under longtime coach Rick Carlisle).

Williams can't necessarily blame personnel for New Orleans' defensive shortcomings. While the Pelicans' perimeter defense has been an issue, the front office attempted to compensate by adding rim protector Omer Asik to go along with star Anthony Davis, who finished fourth in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Despite the upgrade, Pelicans made only marginal progress defensively, and were still dismal when it came to protecting the paint. No team allowed more attempts at the rim, per SportVU tracking available on NBA.com/Stats, and even with Asik and Davis the Pelicans were 20th in opponents' shooting percentage on those shots.

Asik was much less effective protecting the rim in New Orleans than he had been with the Houston Rockets, and because he spent so much time on the perimeter, Davis contested just 7.1 shots per game at the rim -- 34th in the league, far below most of the NBA's premier shot blockers.

The case for Williams

On its own, the Pelicans making the playoffs doesn't qualify as a positive for Williams, just as it shouldn't have been held against him had the Oklahoma City Thunder won one additional game and claimed the eighth seed in the Western Conference. Good organizations don't leave their fate in the hands of such random outcomes, and making the playoffs alone should not have secured Williams' job going forward.

At the same time, the way New Orleans got to 45 wins is relevant in evaluating Williams. The Pelicans played much of the second half of the season without starting point guard Jrue Holiday, who missed 41 games before returning for the final week of the regular season, and key reserve Ryan Anderson, who was limited to 11 games after the All-Star break due to a sprained MCL. Yet New Orleans never missed a beat, with Williams integrating players like Norris Cole, Dante Cunningham and Quincy Pondexter midseason and getting better production than they had provided in past stops.

To me, the defining moment of the Pelicans' 2014-15 season wasn't their win over San Antonio in the season finale but the five games they played just after the break without Anderson, Holiday and Davis, who was briefly sidelined by a shoulder sprain. New Orleans went 4-1 in that stretch, getting quality production from journeymen Alexis Ajinca (14.6 points and 7.8 rebounds per game) and Luke Babbitt (7.8 PPG in 19.5 minutes per game).

Getting the most out of limited players was a hallmark of Williams' tenure with the Pelicans, and if his teams' slow pace (they were 27th in possessions per 48 minutes this season) masked how ineffective Williams' teams were defensively, it also helped hide how effectively they scored. New Orleans finished ninth in offensive rating this season, impressive given the personnel on hand after injuries.

The verdict

While cobbling together a solid lineup out of role players can help a team make the playoffs, it does little to benefit them when the quality of opposition improves dramatically. The Pelicans were able to hang around for long stretches of their series with the Warriors, but the finality of the 4-0 sweep and Golden State's stunning comeback in the fourth quarter of Game 3 at New Orleans revealed how far the Pelicans have to go to compete with the West's best teams.

Since the Pelicans will have a hard time upgrading their roster in the short term, the easiest way to improve will be finding a defensive-minded coach who can improve them at that end of the floor. While I'm intrigued by my Insider colleague Tom Haberstroh's plan to hire Mike D'Antoni and unleash Davis, possibly as a stretch 5, New Orleans can only get so much better offensively. The Pelicans have far more defensive upside as Davis grows into one of the league's most versatile defenders.

If the Chicago Bulls indeed fire Tom Thibodeau at season's end, he'll be an obvious candidate for New Orleans who could provide the immediate results the Pelicans seem to desire. At the same time, trusting a player as valuable as Davis to Thibodeau could create the same kind of tensions that might spell doom for Thibodeau in Chicago.

Scott Brooks might make more sense. While Brooks isn't considered a defensive genius, he built top-10 defenses four times in his last six years with the Oklahoma City Thunder, and found a way to make power forward Serge Ibaka a presence defensively in the paint unlike Davis under Williams. (Ibaka defended 9.3 shots per game at the rim, per NBA.com/Stats, while averaging fewer minutes than Davis.)

The good news is New Orleans should have its pick of replacements for Williams. The chance to coach the league's best young player is one any coach would desire, especially in comparison to the question marks that surround the other available jobs in Denver and Orlando. The Pelicans have a chance to upgrade on the sidelines if they make the right call in replacing Williams.