Player profiles: Projecting Towns, Dunn, Rubio and the Wolves
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How will Karl-Anthony Towns, Kris Dunn, Ricky Rubio and the Timberwolves do in 2016-17?
Here are our player scouting reports and analysis.
Projected starters
Ricky Rubio
Position: Guard
Experience: 5 years
Age: 25
Scouting report
+ Elite playmaking and defensive point guard limited by poor shooting
+ Decent standstill jumper with slow release but low-percentage finisher
+ Big for a point guard and has exceptionally quick hands
But there's that one, big thing Rubio doesn't know: how to make baskets. He actually made a career-high 62 3-pointers last season at a 32.6 percent clip, but opposing guards can comfortably play off him because Rubio's release is so slow. More than his outside shooting, though -- Rubio has actually become fairly adept at the pull-up jumper off the dribble -- his finishing is a problem. Amazingly, Rubio's 51.7 percent accuracy within three feet was a career high, per Basketball-Reference.com (league average is 62.4 percent). And he has no in-between game to speak of, making less than 30 percent of his attempts between three and 16 feet, so it's no surprise Rubio drives to pass rather than to score.
At this point, the book is out and defenses won't overreact to Rubio penetration, daring him to beat them as a scorer. If and when Minnesota becomes a playoff team, defenses might aggressively play off Rubio, cramping the floor for everyone else. As a result, it's an open question whether Rubio will still be around at that point. With rookie Kris Dunn as a potential replacement, the Timberwolves might look to get value for Rubio, who has three years and $42 million left on a reasonable contract extension that kicked in last season.
Zach LaVine
Position: Guard
Experience: 2 years
Age: 21
Scouting report
+ Uber-athletic combo guard who is two-time defending slam dunk champion
+ Doesn't have a point guard mentality and played better after moving off the ball
+ Noncompetitive defender who will be challenged to do more by Tom Thibodeau
Analysis
February 2016 was a big month for LaVine, and not only because he reached deep in his bag of tricks to beat Aaron Gordon for his second consecutive slam dunk championship. After spending the first year and a half of his NBA career trying to make him a point guard, Minnesota wised up and moved LaVine into the starting lineup alongside Rubio. He averaged 16.4 points with a .595 true shooting percentage after the All-Star break, and the Timberwolves' new starting five outscored opponents by 3.9 points per 100 possessions according to NBA.com/Stats.
Despite his strong handle, LaVine was never asked to create shots for teammates before reaching the NBA because he was so good at creating them for himself. That's not necessarily the case at this level. While LaVine's leaping makes him a good finisher when he gets to the basket, he tends to take too many off-balance shots off the dribble, many of them long 2-pointers (he shot just 35.1 percent on 2-point jumpers beyond 16 feet, per Basketball-Reference.com, in hoisting 3.4 per game. But LaVine is an excellent spot-up shooter whose 64.9 percent effective field-goal percentage on such shots ranked sixth among players with at least 100 attempts according to Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats. Those 3-pointers (he shot 43.7 percent after the break) and easy looks generated by running the floor made LaVine an efficient scorer at shooting guard.
The next step in LaVine's development will come at the defensive end after he ranked in the NBA's bottom 10 in defensive RPM. While LaVine's 6-foot-8-plus wingspan should make him effective defending shooting guards, his effort and focus are lax. Thibodeau won't stand for that, and LaVine will either make strides or he won't play.
Andrew Wiggins
Position: Forward
Experience: 2 years
Age: 21
Scouting report
+ Ultratalented former No. 1 pick who has yet to become more than volume scorer
+ Good at creating his own shot one-on-one but poor passer and outside shooter
+ Has physical tools to be elite defender but needs to improve focus
Analysis
If Rubio's a basketball fox, Wiggins might be the basketball hedgehog -- for now. The one big thing Wiggins knows is how to score. In his second season, the 2014 No. 1 overall pick and 2014-15 Rookie of the Year averaged 20.7 points, making him the youngest player in the league's top 20 in scoring. Yet the rest of Wiggins' game hasn't developed as expected, making this a critical season to determine whether he's actually on track for superstardom.
Wiggins made important strides as a scorer in Year 2, boosting his usage rate from 22.6 percent of Minnesota's plays to 27.2 percent while improving his true shooting percentage from .517 to .543 (slightly better than league average). Save Wiggins' even younger teammate Karl-Anthony Towns, every player who has used more than a quarter of his team's plays with above-average true shooting in a season began at age 20 or younger has become an All-Star.
As an isolation scorer, Wiggins was fairly average despite a quick first step because those plays tended to result in lots of long 2-pointers. But he was excellent at posting up wing defenders (his 208 points on post-ups led all perimeter players, per Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats) -- something that might be more difficult now that LaVine's emergence has bumped him to small forward -- and Wiggins excels at drawing contact and getting to the free throw line. The 565 free throws Wiggins shot ranked seventh in the league and helped pad his efficiency.
The next step for Wiggins is making plays for others. Among 20-point scorers, only forward/center Anthony Davis averaged fewer assists per game than Wiggins' 2.0. He should probably drive to score but can develop the ability to make the cross-court pass when he sees defenses cheating toward him in isolations. Wiggins is also still working on his 3-point shot. He made more 3s (57) than he did as a rookie (39) but saw his accuracy drop slightly from 31.0 percent to 30.0 percent.
When Wiggins was drafted, scouts touted him as an elite wing defender. That hasn't yet materialized. Given his athleticism, Wiggins gets relatively few steals and blocks, and he's an awful defensive rebounder for a wing. (Rubio grabbed defensive boards nearly twice as often.) Timberwolves color analyst Jim Petersen has pointed to Wiggins not being in a defensive stance off the ball, which makes it difficult for him to explode into action to pursue loose balls. Wiggins actually does fairly well defending one-on-one, providing Thibodeau a base to work with defensively.
Karl-Anthony Towns
Position: Forward
Experience: 1 year
Age: 20
Scouting report
+ Uniquely versatile big man with MVP potential after winning Rookie of the Year
+ Accurate outside shooter who's also effective scoring in the post
+ Fluid defender at home both on the perimeter and protecting the rim
Analysis
Before his 20th birthday, Towns served notice of his potential to the league with a 28-point, 14-rebound effort in his second NBA game. After the No. 1 pick of the 2015 draft was unanimously named Rookie of the Year, I made the case that he's the best prospect at his age since LeBron James. Towns' 12.4 wins above replacement player (WARP), the most by a rookie since Blake Griffin in 2010-11 (12.5), were second to James among players who started a season as teenagers. That suggests big things to come.
John Calipari accelerated Towns' development during his one season at Kentucky by forcing him inside. Towns retains the soft touch from the perimeter that made him such a promising prep prospect. He shot a below-average 34.1 percent from 3-point range but his 50.6 percent accuracy on 2-pointers beyond 16 feet ranked second among players with at least 100 attempts, per Basketball-Reference.com. Thanks to Calipari forcing him inside, Towns is also dangerous in the post using hooks with either hand and a fadeaway jump shot. His 231 points on post-ups ranked in the league's top 20, per Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats. And when Towns draws fouls, he's an excellent free throw shooter for a big man (81.1 percent), boosting his strong .590 true shooting percentage.
Towns' potential is equally great at the defensive end. He blocked shots at an above-average rate as a center, though he still has improvement to make as a rim protector. Yet Towns also moves his feet well enough to comfortably defend power forwards and even switch onto guards. He offered a hint at his potential in a late-season road win over the Golden State Warriors, switching out on MVP Stephen Curry and holding him in check. That kind of flexibility should be a major weapon in Thibodeau's defense.
Gorgui Dieng
Position: Center
Experience: 3 years
Age: 26
Scouting report
+ High-post center who is also a good finisher around basket
+ Solid midrange shooter with ability to find teammates as passer
+ Frequent shot blocks haven't translated into effective rim protection
Analysis
Not long before LaVine moved into the starting lineup at shooting guard, Dieng replaced the injured Kevin Garnett as a starter, moving Towns to power forward. Dieng averaged 12.5 points and 7.9 rebounds in a starting role, setting him up well entering the final season of his rookie contract. Dieng can be a restricted free agent next summer, and Minnesota might hold off on an extension to take advantage of Dieng's small cap hold.
The Timberwolves' offense flourished with a pair of centers on the court because both Dieng and Towns are comfortable playing away from the basket. In fact, though Dieng is a good finisher, he's probably best in the high post. He shot a respectable 43.4 percent on 2-point attempts beyond 16 feet according to Basketball-Reference.com and is a good passer for a center, averaging 2.3 assists per 36 minutes (more than Wiggins). After unleashing one of the league's most exaggerated pump fakes, Dieng will occasionally drive from the perimeter, and he also has worked on a corner 3 (making six triples in 20 attempts).
Drafted primarily on the strength of his defense, Dieng has been something of a disappointment there. While he generally has blocked shots at an average rate for a center -- it dipped last season playing alongside Towns -- it hasn't translated into rim protection. Opponents shot 52.6 percent inside five feet against Dieng, per SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats, putting him in the bottom quarter of qualifying centers. We'll see whether that improves in Thibodeau's system.
Reserves Nikola Pekovic Position: Center Experience: 6 years Age: 30
Scouting report
+ Burly, surprisingly agile center with good touch around the basket
+ Limited to 12 games last season by career-threatening Achilles injury
Analysis
A troublesome Achilles might end Pekovic's career. It has already ended his entire 2016-17 season, after the team announced Sept. 25 that he will miss the season due to recurring right ankle pain. The big man, a fixture in Minnesota's starting five as recently as 2014-15, underwent a debridement procedure on his right Achilles in April 2015. He returned in January and played 156 minutes over 12 games before the Timberwolves shut him down just after the All-Star break to continue his rehabilitation. Pekovic, who has two years and nearly $24 million left on his contract, is unlikely to see that contract out.
When Pekovic was on the court, he was a shadow of his former self. A 53.5 percent shooter his first four seasons, Pekovic dropped to 42.4 percent from the field in 2014-15 and 38.0 percent in last year's small sample. The rest of Pekovic's game remained reasonably strong before the surgery, but last year he rebounded like a guard and failed to block a shot. So even if Pekovic is physically able to play, with Minnesota flush at center he's a long shot to rejoin the rotation.
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