Ranking the superstar Hall of Fame candidates from the NBA

ByKEVIN PELTON
December 21, 2017, 3:29 PM

— -- Which NBA players from this year's loaded class of Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame candidates most deserve to be enshrined in Springfield?

The Hall of Fame's decision to allow players to become eligible during their fourth year of retirement, announced Thursday, added Ray Allen, Chauncey Billups and Steve Nash to a pool of first-time candidates that already included Grant Hill and Jason Kidd. Add in the holdover players who were already eligible and this is perhaps the deepest group of Hall of Fame contenders we've ever seen from the NBA.

So let's rank the most deserving candidates and their chances of enshrinement.

1. Jason Kidd

2. Steve Nash

The eligibility changes mean two of the 10 best point guards in NBA history will both be eligible this year. They should both be shoo-ins.

While ESPN's all-time #NBArank gave Nash the slight nod over Kidd, I'd reverse that order. Kidd has a huge edge in terms of longevity, having been productive all 19 seasons he played in the NBA (Kidd never posted fewer than 5.3 wins above replacement player by my WARP metric in any season), whereas Nash didn't establish himself as a valuable player until age 27.

Once defense is factored in, I'm skeptical that Nash's MVP seasons were better than Kidd's best years. Three times, Kidd had more WARP in a season than Nash's career high, and other all-in-one metrics give him a similar edge. So while it's a fascinating debate between two point guards who were once teammates on the Phoenix Suns, I favor Kidd over Nash.

3. Ray Allen

Allen is the third no-brainer, first-ballot Hall of Famer in this year's class. While his best seasons weren't at the level of Kidd and Nash -- Allen never made an All-NBA first team and was picked to an All-NBA team only twice -- his longevity wasn't far behind Kidd's. Allen topped five WARP 15 consecutive seasons, from his second year in the league to his final season wearing a? Boston Celtics?uniform.

Like Kidd, Allen was a 10-time All-Star. He's the NBA's all-time leader in 3-pointers, having been ahead of his time in incorporating the 3 as a go-to scorer. After spending much of his prime stuck on .500 teams, Allen made a huge playoff impact with the Celtics and Miami Heat during the second half of his career, including making perhaps the greatest shot in NBA history to help the Heat avoid elimination and win the 2013 NBA Finals -- one he practiced just in case.

4. Chauncey Billups

After Allen, the candidates move from obvious first-ballot selections to those who will likely merit selection at some point but may not be enshrined this year. Though there are no limits on how many players can be chosen in a single year, unlike in baseball, in practice the deep class will probably divide support for any single one player.

My choice for the next-best candidate might be a bit of a surprise. Billups made just five All-Star teams, a below-average total for a Hall of Famer, and finished with fewer than 16,000 career points. But his reliance on the 3 and ability to get to the free throw line made Billups an efficient scorer despite a low shooting percentage, and he was at his best in the playoffs (including the 2004 NBA Finals, when he was chosen MVP).

Remarkably, Billups' 0.5 championships added in the playoffs ranks 20th in NBA history by my career value metric.

5. Grant Hill

On NBA value alone, Hill is a marginal Hall of Fame pick because he lost the better part of three seasons during his 20s to ankle injuries that nearly ended his career. Hill had relatively little playoff impact -- 2010, when he and Nash helped the Suns to the conference finals, was the only time in his career his team advanced beyond the first round -- and his career totals are modest.

Still, in addition to Hill's All-NBA peak (he made a first team once and second team four times with Detroit), we must consider his contributions at other levels. Hill won a pair of national championships at Duke and was also part of the 1996 U.S. Olympic team that won gold on home soil in Atlanta. Taking that into account, Hill is a worthy choice, and I suspect he's got the best chance of joining the three no-brainers in Springfield next September.

6. Ben Wallace

Among returning players on the ballot, I think Wallace is the best candidate, even though he wasn't even a finalist a year ago.

Wallace was a four-time Defensive Player of the Year, and while his offensive contributions were limited, my championships added metric still ranks him 68th in NBA history -- second best for eligible players who haven't yet been selected behind only Horace Grant, who is not one of this year's Hall of Fame candidates.

7. Chris Webber

Largely because of his tendency to perform worse in the playoffs, Webber rates poorly by championships added, coming in 123rd all time -- right on the fringe of what typically translates into Hall of Fame selection. I think that underrates Webber a bit, since his regular-season performance was elite. (Just two eligible players with more WARP than Webber have yet to be voted in.)

Still, I don't think Webber should be first in line among holdover candidates.

8. Jack Sikma

I've previously made the case that Sikma is the best pre-2000s candidate for the Hall of Fame.

9. Tim Hardaway

10. Kevin Johnson

Along with Maurice Cheeks, Hardaway and Johnson have been on the fringe of Hall of Fame consideration the last few years. I broke down their respective cases in a recent mailbag question, giving Hardaway the narrow edge and also including Terry Porter, who has not been a candidate in recent years.