Rating good and bad deals on Day 2 of NBA free agency
— -- Which teams have improved the most early in free agency, and what is still to come?
Team-by-team analysis of the major and minor deals:
Updates on each deal will be posted here throughout the day. ?Latest additions: Jodie Meeks to Washington and? Taj Gibson to Minnesota.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Agreed to a reported two-year, $28 million deal with forward Taj Gibson
A reunion for Gibson with his former Chicago Bulls coach, Tom Thibodeau, in Minnesota was one of this offseason's most predictable outcomes. Gibson's tough defense was a perfect fit for Thibodeau's system, and the Timberwolves were looking for another big man to round out a rotation that also includes incumbent starters Gorgui Dieng and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Gibson will be a major upgrade at the defensive end of the court, where despite Thibodeau's arrival Minnesota struggled last season, ranking 26th in the league in defensive rating. Importing Gibson and fellow former Bull Jimmy Butler should help the Timberwolves dramatically on defense. I'd expect Minnesota to defend at a rate better than league average in 2017-18.
The Timberwolves may pay an offensive price for Gibson's defense. For a big man who uses plays at a below-average rate, Gibson has long been an inefficient scorer in large part because he's a sub-40 percent career shooter beyond 3 feet. Adding a capable 3-point shooter at power forward could have opened up space for Butler, Jeff Teague and Andrew Wiggins to create on offense and made Minnesota an elite attack. Instead, somewhat predictably, Thibodeau is aiming for a stronger defense and weaker offense.
Holding the line for Gibson at two years was wise for the Timberwolves, who could see their payroll balloon by the summer of 2019 with extensions for Wiggins and Towns and hopefully a new contract for Butler, who can become a free agent that season. A three-year contract could have all but guaranteed Minnesota paying the luxury tax in 2019-20 if Butler returns.
On the downside, a $14 million annual salary for Gibson swallows up almost all of the Timberwolves' cap space. If they decide to start Teague's contract at its peak and have it descend, Minnesota would in fact be right at the cap.
I suspect the Timberwolves may ultimately regret investing so much of their resources into the two frontcourt positions. Despite already having Towns, Dieng (starting a four-year extension) and backups Cole Aldrich (who could be waived and stretched to create a little more cap space) and Nemanja Bjelica (who is coming off a fractured foot), they paid Gibson and used the No. 16 pick of this year's draft on center Justin Patton. That could leave Minnesota thin on the perimeter.
As things stand, the Timberwolves may have only the $4.3 million room exception and minimum salaries to fill out a roster that currently has just two wings (Butler and Wiggins), since this signing will surely require Minnesota to renounce the rights to restricted free agent Shabazz Muhammad.
Toronto Raptors
Agreed to a reported three-year, $65 million deal with forward Serge Ibaka
Having acquired Ibaka at the trade deadline in the final season of his contract, the Raptors are now preparing to pay him like an above-average starting power forward. Of the players who have come to terms so far on deals longer than one year, Ibaka's contract ranks fourth in average annual value behind that of? Stephen Curry ($40.2 million), Blake Griffin ($34.4 million) and Jrue Holiday ($25.2 million, not including incentives). While there will certainly be other players who make more, including Ibaka's Toronto teammate Kyle Lowry, I'm not sure Ibaka belongs in that class anymore.
There was no question that Ibaka qualified as an above-average starter a few seasons ago, when he combined elite shot-blocking with floor-spacing and frequent finishes at the rim. The floor-spacing is still there -- Ibaka hit a career-high 124 3-pointers last season at a 39.1 percent clip -- but he's declined in the other two areas.
For a power forward, Ibaka is still an excellent rim protector. As compared to centers, however, his block rate is only a little better than average. And where 32.7 percent of his shot attempts came inside 3 feet as recently as 2013-14, according to Basketball-Reference.com, that's declined all the way to 14.6 percent. That might solely be a function of role -- Ibaka can't be stretching the floor beyond the 3-point line and finishing at the rim at once -- but it helps explain why his efficiency hasn't improved with his development as a shooter. Ibaka's .533 true shooting percentage in 2015-16 was a career low, and last season's bounce-back (.566) brought him only to his career average (.567).
As a result, my multiyear projections estimate Ibaka providing about $46.5 million value over the next three seasons, during which Toronto will pay him about $20 million more. Since they place more weight on ESPN's real plus-minus than I do, FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO projections are even more pessimistic, pegging Ibaka's value over that span at about $30 million.
The extra money is important to a Raptors team staring at a sizable tax bill presuming it re-signs Lowry. (And, as ESPN's Zach Lowe noted on Twitter, there's little reason to spend so much money on Ibaka if Toronto doesn't plan to bring Lowry back.) Already, ESPN's Chris Haynes has confirmed a report by Michael Scotto of BasketballInsiders.com that the Raptors are discussing trading backup point guard Cory Joseph to the Indiana Pacers to shed some payroll.
Washington Wizards
1.?Agreed to a reported two-year, $7 million deal with Jodie Meeks
Because a max contract for restricted free agent Otto Porter would put them into the luxury tax, the Wizards had to shop the bargain aisle in free agency. Meeks could be a good find there, presuming he's able to stay healthy. A Jones fracture of the fifth metatarsal in his right foot cost Meeks the majority of the 2015-16 season and 19 games when it recurred last year. Later, Meeks missed 26 games with a sprained thumb, which is less of a long-term concern.
When he was on the court last season, Meeks shot 40.9 percent from 3-point range. He's a career 37.6 percent 3-point shooter who should benefit from John Wall's ability to set up corner 3s when they play together. For a shooting specialist, Meeks is a solid defender and an upgrade on Bojan Bogdanovic in that regard. Washington may view Meeks as a lower-cost alternative to Bogdanovic, who is a restricted free agent. If healthy, I'd rather have Meeks.
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