Rookie of the Year debate: Has Gary Sanchez caught Michael Fulmer?
— -- For much of the season, Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Michael Fulmer has appeared to be the overwhelming favorite for the American League Rookie of the Year award. Then August rolled in, and the (late) summer of? Gary Sanchez ?began.
Has the? New York Yankees catcher, in just 44 games, done enough to unseat Fulmer -- not to mention the rest of 2016's rookie class? Yankees beat writer Andrew Marchand and ESPN Stats & Information's Mark Simon debate.
Read their arguments -- then vote below.
Marchand: Sanchez's start unmatched in history
The main knock against Sanchez's candidacy is attendance. He has not been in the majors for very long, so how can you give him the Rookie of the Year award? On Thursday, Sanchez played in his 44th game this season. Some say that is a disqualifying figure.
However, Fulmer has appeared in 24 games. That's it. So if your argument is that Sanchez hasn't played enough, then the facts seem to trump that. Well, you say, Fulmer is a starting pitcher, so his impact is different. Maybe so, but it hasn't been greater than Sanchez's.
Fulmer is 10-7 with a 3.03 ERA, which is very good. However, a deeper look at the numbers show he has trended in the wrong direction. In the first half, he was awesome, going 9-2 with a 2.11 ERA in 13 starts. In the second half, he is 1-5 with a 4.00 ERA in 11 starts. If you favor Fulmer over Sanchez, you're handing out the Rookie of the First Half award.
Meanwhile, Sanchez might be having the greatest start to a career in the history of baseball. His 19 homers through the first 45 games of his career (43 games this year, plus two games last season) have never been matched in the history of the game. The next best home run start belongs to the Boston Braves' Wally Berger, who needed 51 games to reach 19, way back in 1930.
Sanchez is also exceptional on defense, with maybe baseball's best arm and a knack for pitch-calling and blocking balls. Sanchez has nearly single-handedly given the Yankees a chance to make the playoffs. He deserves the award over Fulmer or any of the other leading candidates, including Cleveland's Tyler Naquin.
Fulmer has had a very good year, but Sanchez has been better. And the fact he has made such an impact in so few games is a credit to him.
Simon: Fulmer has been here all year
Over a 14-start stretch spanning late May to mid-August, Fulmer pitched 93? innings and recorded a 1.44 ERA. He started that run by becoming the second pitcher in major league history to make four straight scoreless starts of at least six innings while allowing three hits or fewer, according to Elias Sports Bureau research. In those 93? innings pitched, he held opponents to a .176 batting average. For 2? months, he made opposing hitters look barely better than pitchers at the plate.
Fulmer was a legit Cy Young contender until his recent fade (he has allowed six runs twice in his past five starts). He throws hard, and, after some early struggles, began throwing his changeup with greater frequency, which directly correlated to his run of success. You would want a Rookie of the Year to be a good learner, right?
If we use Wins Above Replacement as our metric of choice, Fulmer is at 4.7 WAR, according to baseball-reference.com. That's the same as Cole Hamels and a hair lower than Chris Sale. It ranks tied for sixth among AL pitchers. Sanchez is at 3.2 WAR.
You could make the case for pro-rating Sanchez over a larger number of games, which would basically put his numbers on a Ruthian level. But that would presume he maintains his current level of production, which seems a faulty presumption. But is it faulty to presume that, had Fulmer made 30 starts instead of his 24, he would be a 6-WAR pitcher instead of a borderline 5-WAR pitcher? Maybe, maybe not, but it's at least plausible.
Point being: I wouldn't have a problem with Sanchez winning the AL Rookie of the Year award. But -- at the moment -- Fulmer is legitimately deserving, and he earned his way to that honor over virtually the entire season.
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