Who is Stanley Johnson? Is he the LeBron stopper?
— -- ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton continue their series of rookie and sophomore evaluations with a closer look at Detroit's brash 19-year-old rookie, Stanley Johnson.
Kevin Pelton: On Wednesday night Pistons rookie Stanley Johnson made news for his comments about LeBron James. "I'm definitely in his head, that's for sure," Johnson said after the Pistons' Game 2 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
As part of a deep rookie class, Johnson, the No. 8 overall pick, has flown under the radar most of his first season coming off the bench for Detroit. That has changed in a big way this week, with Johnson drawing attention for defending James, the four-time MVP, and then declaring he was in LeBron's head.
Johnson's comments came just after the Cavs had won 107-90 to take a 2-0 lead in the series. LeBron finished with 27 points and, according to ESPN Stats & Information, was 6-for-6 against Johnson as his primary defender.
What should we make of Johnson? Casual NBA fans who don't follow the Pistons closely might not have seen much of Johnson this season, so let's talk about his game, his future ... and of course his trash talk.
I don't think Johnson's comments would come as a huge surprise to the Arizona coaching staff, since his brash personality was a challenge at times during Johnson's one college season in Tucson. Is this just who he is as a player and person?
The scouting report on Johnson
Chad Ford: From a personality perspective, none of this is a surprise. Johnson won four state titles in high school. Ultra-competitiveness and confidence have always been his strengths, along with a NBA-ready body.
It's the other things -- lack of a consistent 3-point shot, an inability to finish at the rim over athletic defenders and questionable shot selection -- that caused scouts to debate just how good he'd be.
Earlier this month (and in December) we ranked the top 10 rookies in terms of long-term potential. Neither of us included Johnson in our rankings. What were the issues you or the stats saw, Kevin?
Pelton: Yeah, that scouting report matches up well with why Johnson didn't rate well statistically as a rookie. His big shortcoming was an inability to score efficiently.
Johnson made just 30.7 percent of his 3-point attempts (his 3-of-6 shooting from downtown so far in this series has been uncharacteristic) and wasn't much better (41.0 percent) inside the arc. The sprained shoulder Johnson suffered just after the All-Star break did appear to hamper him, and his shooting numbers were even worse in the second half. But even before the All-Star break, Johnson's true shooting percentage of 47.4 percent was below the Antoine Walker Line (50 percent).
Johnson probably needs to cut long 2-pointers out of his game, having shot just 26.5 percent on shots between 16 feet and the 3-point line according to Basketball-Reference.com (and taken more than 10 percent of his shots from that range).
Johnson's athleticism
Pelton: Still, as you noted, he's not an accurate finisher around the basket, making a below-average 53.9 percent of his shots inside three feet.
His size and strength should allow him to finish better than that, right?
Ford: You'd think. But he had the same problem at the college level. While Johnson looks the part of an elite athlete, I don't actually think he has the explosiveness vertically or laterally to be an elite finisher in the NBA.
I also think that hampers him on the defensive end. I know Johnson thinks he's in LeBron's head, but I don't see it. He's strong and he competes, but I think that lack of athleticism (combined with being 19 years old) will keep him from being an elite defender.
Stanley a stopper?
Ford: What do you see? Perhaps the numbers tell a different story about his defensive prowess.
Pelton: I think it's more about being 19 than athleticism. At 6-foot-8, 240, he's an ideal matchup for physical combo forwards like James, yet also has enough quickness to defend on the perimeter, so he can guard a variety of positions. Still, individual defense is a relatively small part of a player's defensive impact and the overall numbers on Johnson's defense aren't great. His defensive RPM (minus-0.7) ranked 70th among small forwards. That will surely improve as he adds experience but makes it unlikely Johnson gets to an elite level.
So when we put that package together, what is Johnson's long-term potential? As you mentioned, neither of us had him in our top 10 rookies ranked by that criteria.
Johnson vs. Winslow
Ford: I was somewhat infamous for tweeting on draft night that the Pistons made the first mistake of the night when they passed on Justise Winslow to draft Johnson.
While Johnson was the superior offensive player, I felt that Winslow had the ability to be an elite defensive player because of his superior athleticism. Elite defense trumped so-so offense.
So far I think the results have borne that out. I see Winslow making an All-Defensive team someday. I'm don't see Johnson making an "all-anything." That isn't to say he won't get better or won't be valuable to the Pistons. He already has proved to be valuable.
But I don't think he'll end up being one of the top 10 players in this draft in five years. I still have much more confidence that Winslow will be.
What about you, Kevin? Where do you stand on the Winslow-Johnson debate and his future impact?
Pelton: We're on the same page here. Winslow had far more impact on the Heat's team defense, which is why he earned honorable mention in my All-Defensive picks. Even though Winslow struggled offensively, I still like his long-term potential. Unfortunately for Johnson, in addition to Winslow several other players drafted in the late lottery showed more promise.
Still, I don't think we should rate Johnson's career based on the players taken after him. They won't prevent him from helping Detroit, as you mention. Despite Johnson's poor statistical production as a rookie, his SCHOENE comparables are still favorable because of his age. Most similar players, including Marvin Williams as his closest comparison and Pistons teammate Tobias Harris, tended to develop into starters.
If that's the path Johnson follows, there will be plenty more matchups with LeBron in his future -- and opportunities to back up his boastful comments.
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