Tracking the College Football Playoff
— -- We are a little more than two weeks from the final College Football Playoff rankings and the semifinal announcements.
Dinich projects the committee's top six
Ten of the committee's top 11 teams won this week, the exception being Louisville, so there shouldn't be too much of a shakeup in the top six. Michigan might drop because of a lackluster passing game under John O'Korn, and Oklahoma still has some work to do. Here's an updated projection of what the committee might do:
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Michigan
5. Washington
6. Wisconsin
Sooners still have work to do
The easiest declaration in the Big 12 is that West Virginia is out, done, kaput. It's more complicated with Oklahoma, which earned its first statement win -- and got it in Morgantown. The Sooners still need help, though -- lots of it -- because of a r?sum? that has just one win against a top 25 team and just three wins against teams with record above .500 (Kansas State, Baylor and now West Virginia). Five of OU's nine wins have come against teams with at least six losses.
So what has to happen?
OU first needs to beat Oklahoma State on Dec. 3. The Sooners would increase their legitimacy in the debate if Michigan loses, because if the Wolverines win out and win the Big Ten, you're looking at a top four that starts with Alabama, Clemson and Michigan. The debate would then boil down to Oklahoma and Washington. That's why if Washington loses, it also helps, because Oklahoma might have a better chance when evaluated against a two-loss Colorado Pac-12 champ. Oklahoma could also make a case against a two-loss Penn State team, but would likely lose that r?sum? test, too, because Penn State's win over No. 2 Ohio State still trumps anything the Sooners have done. OU isn't done yet, but it remains a long shot in the big picture.
Pac-12 takes playoff hit
The entire Pac-12 took a hit when both No. 12 Utah and No. 22 Washington State lost. Utah's loss hurts Washington's r?sum?, as a road win against Utah is the Huskies' best win. With Washington State's loss, it's possible the Cougars drop out of the CFP top 25 entirely. That's not good for Washington, which needs as many ranked opponents as it can get down the stretch. In spite of the loss to Colorado, Washington State can win the North if it wins the Apple Cup. That would leave Colorado as the league's best shot at the CFP, but it would be playing a team it already beat in the conference championship game. The better scenario for Colorado is for Washington to win the North.
Michigan wins O'Korn's debut, but tougher challenge awaits
This was the selection committee's first chance to see if Michigan looks like a top-four team with backup quarterback John O'Korn, and in spite of the win over Indiana, that remains debatable. Michigan's passing game struggled immensely, as O'Korn completed just seven of 16 passes for 59 yards, and the Wolverines put the game in the hands of De'Veon Smith, who had 158 yards and two touchdowns. Michigan can't remain one-dimensional at Ohio State next week or in the Big Ten championship game, should it win the East. That is enough to give the committee pause, and it could drop Michigan to the No. 4 spot behind Clemson this week. The Wolverines should stay in the top four, however, thanks to wins over Colorado, Penn State and Wisconsin. Ohio State should remain ranked ahead of Michigan, partly because the Buckeyes have a better loss (to a ranked Penn State team) than the Wolverines' loss to Iowa. It should be noted in the committee meeting room, though, that Michigan and Ohio State both played in East Lansing, and the Wolverines won in more impressive fashion.
Ohio State wobbles but keeps playoff hopes alive
No. 2 Ohio State escaped East Lansing with a 17-16 win and should remain in the committee's top four, but such a close game against a 3-7 team opens the door to debate whether the Buckeyes are the No. 2 team in the country. The close win also calls into question whether the Buckeyes would deserve to stay in the top four without winning the Big Ten East division. Remember, in order for a team that doesn't win its conference championship to go to a semifinal, it must "unequivocally" be one of the four best teams in the country. There must be no doubt among the 12 committee members that Ohio State is better than another Power 5 conference champion. For much of the game Saturday, there was doubt as to whether the Buckeyes are better than Michigan State.
Also in the Big Ten, Wisconsin trounced Purdue 49-20 but needed Nebraska (and Minnesota) to lose to clinch the Big Ten's West division. The Huskers thoroughly beat the Terps, so the Badgers' celebration must remain on hold, though they should remain the Big Ten's top two-loss team.
Gundy states his case for Oklahoma State
The No. 11 Cowboys beat TCU 31-6 to improve to 9-2 and set up a potentially monumental Bedlam showdown with Oklahoma on Dec. 3. But coach Mike Gundy isn't looking at his team as a 9-2 squad. To him, it's 10-1.
After the TCU win, Gundy reflected on his team's? controversial Week 2 loss to Central Michigan, in which on-field and replay officials admitted to an error that prolonged the game and allowed the Chippewas to complete a last-second Hail Mary.
"Nobody will ever convince me that we didn't get the win," Gundy said.
CFP selection committee chair Kirby Hocutt has said his group is considering the game a loss for the Cowboys, but Gundy isn't sure they feel that way.
"I know Kirby had mentioned that the committee feels a certain way about that game," Gundy said. "I think Kirby's playing poker and that they see us as a 10-win team. That's just my opinion."
Playoff impact games
- No. 2 Ohio State 17, Michigan State 16
- No. 7 Wisconsin 49, Purdue 20
- No. 11 Oklahoma State 31, TCU 6
- No. 3 Michigan 20, Indiana 10
- No. 4 Clemson 35, Wake Forest 13
- No. 1 Alabama 31, Chattanooga 3
- No. 8 Penn State 39, Rutgers 0
- No. 9 Oklahoma 56, No. 14 West Virginia 28
What Louisville's loss means
After a wild Saturday filled with upsets, the ripple effect in the College Football Playoff continued Thursday, when No. 5 Louisville was thoroughly outplayed by Houston in a 36-10 loss that sent reverberations throughout the selection committee's Top 25. It's hard to envision a scenario where the Cardinals can get back into playoff contention.
To read more about how the Cardinals' loss affected the playoff, click here.
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