Trade grades: Ricky Rubio swap and future moves for Jazz, Wolves
The deal
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Wolves get:?Oklahoma City's 2018 first-round pick (top-14 protected)
Jazz get:?Guard Ricky Rubio
Utah Jazz: A
The clock was ticking down to the final hours on the $16 million or so in 2016-17 cap space the Jazz had remaining after they were unable to convince starting point guard George Hill to agree to a renegotiation and extension during the season.
When the 2017-18 league year officially begins after the moratorium, the cap holds for free agents Hill and Gordon Hayward would put Utah over the cap. For that matter, so would retaining just Hayward's cap hold, and even if both Hill and Hayward left,? Rudy Gobert's extension kicking in means the Jazz wouldn't likely have as much space as they did Friday, the last day of the 2016-17 league year.
So there was an urgent deadline for Utah to use its cap space and acquire a replacement for Hill at point guard on a more reasonable contract. Enter Rubio, who has reportedly been available for the past year and was no longer an ideal fit in Minnesota with the addition of Jimmy Butler last week.
Rubio has two seasons remaining on his contract and a combined $29 million. Over that span, my multiyear projections value his production at more than $50 million. While Rubio would have been hard-pressed to command that kind of money on the market as a free agent, he's on par with the second-tier options like Hill, Jrue Holiday and Jeff Teague who will surely make far more money over the next two years. That's important given the Jazz must keep an eye on the luxury tax if they re-sign Hayward and restricted free agent Joe Ingles.
If Hayward returns at the max and Utah waives Boris Diaw (whose $7.5 million salary is non-guaranteed through July 15), the Jazz would be about $6.4 million under the tax line before re-signing Ingles and filling out the roster. Ingles will likely cost more than that, but Rubio's salary puts Utah one move -- like trading Alec Burks, who has two years left on his contract at about $10 million each season -- away from getting back under the tax line.
As compared to the group of comparable point guards, Rubio has the advantage of being younger. He is 26 and Holiday is 27. Teague recently turned 29 and Hill is 31. Rubio should be at his peak level of performance the next couple of seasons while the alternative options gently decline.
If Hayward returns, Rubio is a worse fit alongside him than Hill, whose 3-point shooting allowed him to play both on and off the ball. Though Rubio showed improvement from midrange last season, shooting a career-high 43.4 percent on 2-point attempts, his 30.6 percent 3-point shooting was slightly down from his 31.5 percent career mark.
In the event Hayward leaves, head coach Quin Snyder will probably want to shift toward more of a point guard-centric attack. Rubio's court vision is ideal for a team that wants to score using the pass.
Defensively, Rubio should be an excellent fit in the Jazz's system. Like Hill and backup Dante Exum, he has good size and length for a point guard. Assuming Snyder tolerates his occasional freelancing, Rubio's ability to generate steals should be a positive addition. He's a perennial leader among point guards in defensive rating according to ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), and his overall plus-2.4 RPM projection for 2017-18 is on par with Holiday, just behind Hill (plus-2.8) and ahead of Teague (plus-1.5).
All that makes getting two years of Rubio at a relative bargain price well worth a first-round pick in the second half of the round.
Minnesota Timberwolves: B-
A Rubio trade was probably inevitable after the Timberwolves acquired Butler. The move gave Minnesota a pair of relatively weak outside shooters on the wing -- Butler and Andrew Wiggins combined for 2.4 3-pointers per 36 minutes last season, or about as many as departed Timberwolves guard Zach LaVine alone (2.5) -- as well as two wings who like to play with the ball in their hands.
Rubio was about the worst possible fit to play alongside that duo, so it's understandable Minnesota would be interested in moving him to create cap space to sign a point guard who fits better. And, on the plus side, the Timberwolves recouped some value. The extra first-round pick (lottery-protected through 2020, converting into a pair of second-round picks if not conveyed by then) gets Minnesota back to pick-neutral; the team's own 2018 first-round pick belongs to the Atlanta Hawks (with lottery protection) from the ill-fated Adreian Payne trade.
The downside is whomever the Timberwolves sign in free agency -- and conjecture has quickly linked them with Teague -- will be older (unless Holiday somehow ends up in Minnesota) and far more expensive. That eats into the $32 million or so in cap space the Timberwolves can now clear if they renounce the rights to their free agents. Ideally, Minnesota would also be able to use that space to add a stretch-4 option or a backup behind Butler and Wiggins on the wing. Each extra dollar the team spends on a point guard takes money out of the kitty there.
So ultimately we won't really know how to evaluate this trade until we find out which point guard the Timberwolves choose to replace Rubio and how much that costs them.
