UFC 199: Luke Rockhold vs. Michael Bisping
— -- A pair of familiar matchups fill the main and co-main event slots at this weekend's UFC 199 pay-per-view in Inglewood, California.
Middleweight champion Luke Rockhold seeks his first defense against Michael Bisping, whom he submitted in November 2014. And bantamweight champ Dominick Cruz will meet longtime rival Urijah Faber for the third time. That series currently sits at 1-1.
Let's take a closer look at the two championship fights atop Saturday's event. Don't agree with these picks? Let me know on Twitter: @bokamotoESPN.
Main event
Luke Rockhold (15-2) vs. Michael Bisping (28-7)
Middleweights
Odds: Rockhold -1000; Bisping +600
Michael Bisping is bringing a knife to a gun fight. I suppose it's possible one could win in that scenario, but one would have to be absolutely perfect (and at least a little bit lucky) to do so.
Bisping, 37, is a smart mixed martial artist. He's in tune with his strengths and weaknesses. That honesty means he's always exceptionally well-prepared -- although it's reasonable to think he won't fully possess his trademark gas tank on Saturday, having accepted this bout on short notice.
That's a potentially crippling detail, because the only way Bisping wins this matchup is if he's extremely active. Rockhold is a monster on the ground and you don't want to give him an opportunity to take you down, but Bisping has to pick the lesser of two evils on this one. And the greater evil here is staying on the outside, where he'd be at range for Rockhold's sledgehammer of a left kick. You want to talk about the singular, most potent offensive weapons that exist in the game today, Rockhold's left kick is right up there with an Alistair Overeem knee, a Jose Aldo leg kick, a Dan Henderson right hand, a Conor McGregor left, etc.
But that being said, there isn't really a "safe" range for Bisping. Ideally, he'd like to be at that middle boxing distance, constantly moving in and out of it. Slip punches, land the jab, combinations, hit the outside leg kick at the end of a flurry, don't reach. Never be where Rockhold thinks he is. When Bisping gets into a rhythm, he's beautiful to watch. A big issue though, and we all saw it in the first fight, is Rockhold doesn't respect Bisping's power. When he got physical and moved forward, Bisping gave ground. And the second Bisping got on his back foot, there he was for that Rockhold left kick.
Rockhold's one-arm guillotine in their first fight remains the only time Bisping has been submitted in his 12-year career. That's pretty remarkable and speaks to Bisping's underrated defensive grappling and scrambling ability. He's facing an enormous opponent in Rockhold though, and if this fight ends in submission again, it won't be surprising. Rockhold's athleticism is unmatched at this weight. I believe there's a solid chance we see him in a light heavyweight bout at some point. Bisping has heart and courage, but Rockhold has a way of breaking opponents. He hasn't let a fight go the distance in nearly four years.
Prediction: Similar to the first meeting. Rockhold hurts Bisping on the feet, taps him in the second round.
Co-main event
Dominick Cruz (21-1) vs. Urijah Faber (33-8)
Bantamweights
Odds: Cruz -550; Faber +425
Cruz has often dismissed Faber's game as essentially nothing more than overhand rights and guillotines. And while that might be (intentionally) over-simplified, there also might be an element of truth to it.
When these two met for the second time in 2011, Cruz hit Faber with a little bit of everything. The jab was effective, as was the lead right. A perfect counter uppercut produced one of the best highlights of the five-round fight. And, most important, he shut down Faber's offensive grappling. There was not a single moment in that fight Faber was able to rely on his wrestling background.
And the ultimate effect of that -- Cruz' versatility plus Faber's inability to grapple -- was that Faber relied on his best punch, the right hand. There were times when he simply stood still, did his best to not bite on Cruz feints and searched for a moment to land that right. He tucked his chin and basically stormed Cruz, throwing the right. In a way, he became the limited offensive fighter Cruz described him as. He also dropped Cruz with the punch on several occasions, including once in the fourth round that appeared to legitimately hurt him.
Five years later, there's not a whole lot of reason to believe Faber's wrestling will be more effective. As much as Cruz's awkward, elusive movement is behind his success, his wrestling is arguably just as important. Cruz has fought some outstanding wrestlers in his career and he has not only shut them all down, he's out-grappled them when he needed to. This is important when talking about a matchup with 37-year-old Faber, who has nearly three times as many submission wins on his resume as knockouts. For Faber to win, he might need to do it without his best attribute, which is his submission wrestling.
Prediction: Cruz in a shutout decision.
Other featured bouts:
Max Holloway (15-3) vs. Ricardo Lamas (16-4)
If Lamas can get this to the floor, he is a very live dog. If he can't, not so much.
Prediction: Holloway by decision.
Dan Henderson (31-14) vs. Hector Lombard (34-5-1)
Henderson is finally addressing the "retirement" talk ahead of this fight with Lombard, who is returning to middleweight. Could this be Hendo's final run?
Prediction: Lombard via TKO, round one.
Dustin Poirier (19-4) vs. Bobby Green (23-6)
The "sneaky good fight" of the card. Probably not even that sneaky since Poirier is involved, but it's going overlooked. Should be fire.
Prediction: Green by decision.
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