Wade's exit a blessing for Heat if they follow their own history

— -- The Miami Heat didn't want the Dwyane Wade era to end. Not like this.

Not after team president Pat Riley two years ago gave his famous "guts" speech heading into the 2014 free-agency period and promptly watched LeBron James take his talents back to Cleveland. A few weeks ago, Riley made another bold call in free agency, naming Hassan Whiteside -- not Wade -- the Heat's "No. 1 priority" to a room full of reporters. After negotiations quickly went south, Wade packed his bags and went north to Chicago.

And while that wasn't the ending the Heat wanted, from their perspective, the Wade departure likely was for the best.

The divide seems to stem from a fundamental disagreement over how Wade should be compensated. He reportedly turned down a two-year, $40 million contract from the Heat and accepted a two-year, $47.5 million deal from Chicago. Should the Heat pay for past performance and perceived debts of gratitude? Or should it purely be based on cold future projections removed from emotions?

One important byproduct of a 13-year tenure is a long history of internal medical information. A 34-year-old Wade probably wasn't going to age gracefully enough in today's NBA to justify a three-year deal, or a contract exceeding $20 million annually.

Advanced projections agree with the Heat's call. According to NBA Insider Kevin Pelton's SCHOENE projection system, the most similar player to Wade is none other than Kobe Bryant, whose body broke down at age 34, starting with a torn Achilles at the end of the 2012-13 season. Pelton's projections saw Wade's value dropping by 40 percent next season, from 6.0 WARP to 3.7 WARP, and then falling again to 3.0 WARP in 2017-18. Even with all the money being thrown around this summer, Wade's asking price didn't fit with his forecasted production.

The Heat aren't going to follow in the Los Angeles Lakers' footsteps and back up the truck for a Wade farewell tour. All that was standing between Wade and the contract Chicago offered was moving  Josh McRoberts' contract that accounted for just $5.8 million on the books this summer. Keep in mind, Jose Calderon and his $7.7 million was just dumped onto the Lakers for the measly price of packaging a future second-round pick.

With  Chris Bosh's outlook still unclear, a full reset was probably the smart, levelheaded move, even if Riley and the Heat didn't plan on it falling apart so unceremoniously.

Whiteside better without Wade?

If you watched the Heat closely last season, you would expect Wade's departure to devastate Whiteside, their new franchise player. Wade knew how to get Whiteside the ball; according to the NBA StatsCube database, Wade assisted on 92 Whiteside baskets last season, while starting point guard Goran Dragic assisted Whiteside only 65 times. Zeroing in further, Wade successfully tossed 29 alley-oop lobs to Whiteside -- twice as many as Dragic did.

So Whiteside and the Heat will suffer without Wade, right? Well, it's not that simple.

Pick-and-roll chemistry is just one slice of the Heat's overall play. Interestingly, Whiteside posted superior numbers without Wade. Per StatsCube, Whiteside registered a 30.3 PER without Wade on the floor. When Wade was out there? Whiteside's PER fell to "just" 23.9. Even without Wade's assistance, Whiteside still shot 60.6 percent from the floor last season, aided by floor-spacing rookie Josh Richardson, who shot 53-of-115 (46.1 percent) from deep last season. With fewer bodies packing the paint, Whiteside enjoyed more space to work in.

Another important big-picture look: The Heat outscored opponents by 5.1 points per 100 possessions last season when Whiteside played and Wade did not. With both players on the floor, the Heat outscored opponents by just 1.8 points per 100 possessions. That decline can be explained by Miami's souring on defense. That end of the floor improved without Wade, from 103.8 points allowed per 100 possessions to 98.0 points, which would have been good for second-best in the NBA over the course of the regular season.

Much of that improvement can be explained by many Richardson-Whiteside lineups appearing against second units. What's more, Wade and Whiteside produced healthier offense toward the end of the season, but the trend is clear: Whiteside doesn't necessarily need Wade to excel.

Should the Heat tank?

Despite those positive numbers for Whiteside, there's reason to believe he might have already peaked last season. Second-round picks who get their big payday tend to see their performance fall off immediately after the boatload of cash comes in. Considering that and the sobering fact that the Heat had little choice but to fill the rest of the roster with borderline NBA players, Miami will need to maximize its 2017 first-round draft pick, which it owns outright.

The Heat know this route well. All they have to do is look at the 2002-03 season after they lost Alonzo Mourning to a serious kidney condition that sidelined him for the entire season. Led by a 22-year-old Caron Butler, that team went 25-57 under Riley. The Heat's awful season earned them the fifth pick in the 2003 draft. Who did they select? A prospect out of Marquette University named Dwyane Wade.

The Heat could try to postpone the rebuilding movement to 2017-18, but they would lose their pick to Phoenix if it falls out of the top seven, thanks to the trade that brought in Dragic. But with Bosh's future in jeopardy and desperate options in free agency, Miami would be wise to rebuild with an eye on getting a high draft pick in 2017.

And it starts with moving Dragic.

Trade options for Dragic

Dragic didn't sign long-term with the Heat to take part in a rebuild. But he could have a hand in it if he knocks on Riley's door and asks for a trade. Riley might not even need Dragic to initiate that conversation.

The Heat desperately need assets to restock their cabinet. Currently, the team has reloaded with a bunch of one-year deals, looking to leverage its championship culture and player development staff that turned Whiteside, Richardson and Tyler Johnson into legitimate NBA contributors. That the Heat matched Johnson's poison-pill contract offer from the Brooklyn Nets indicates they plan on vying for a playoff spot with an up-tempo team built on athletes.

But it will be a tall task. As it stands now, the Heat are the only East team other than the Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic without a player who ranked top-50 overall in real plus-minus in 2015-16. The Heat scraped the bargain bin by signing  Wayne Ellington, James Johnson, Derrick Williams and  Willie Reed, and trading for Luke Babbitt. Of that group, only Reed ranked among the top 50 at his position, according to RPM. (Reed finished 47th at the power forward slot.)

The upside is that the team meshes together with a vision built around Dragic and Whiteside. But it could go poorly, and teams could be in the market for a point guard like Dragic, who has three years left on his contract with a player option for 2019-20.

One team to watch: the Rockets, who may be interested in a Dragic reunion to help beef up their squad. The Heat could do a sign-and-trade involving 25-year-old Donatas Motiejunas, who is a restricted free agent. Or if the Heat don't want to take back Motiejunas' contract, they could just opt for a package of Patrick Beverley, Corey Brewer and picks.

Who else would be in the market for Dragic's services? Keep an eye on the Atlanta Hawks and New Orleans Pelicans, two teams that could use more solid options at point guard. According to league sources, the Heat have not made Dragic available yet, but that might change soon.

When Wade bolted for Chicago, the Heat took a huge hit in the public relations department. But it may have been a blessing in disguise. It hurts now, but it quickens the post-Wade era, which would have been painful under any circumstance. Rather than try to reload a playoff team every season like Mark Cuban's Mavericks, Miami should follow the Boston Celtics' blueprint and rebuild from scratch. The Heat organization only has to rewind to the beginning of the Wade era in 2003 to see how it should proceed.