Analysis: History suggests a team will make a big leap to reach a conference championship game

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Some of the 18 NFL teams that missed the playoffs last year have reason to hope for much greater success this season.

Since 2019, seven teams have reached a conference championship game after failing to make the playoffs the previous season. Four of those seven teams won six or fewer games the year before advancing to the NFL’s Final Four.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers went from 7-9 in 2019 to Super Bowl champions in 2020. The San Francisco 49ers rebounded from a 4-12 season in 2018 to reach the Super Bowl the following year only to lose to the Kansas City Chiefs. They bounced back from a 6-10 campaign in 2020 and got to the NFC title game the next season.

Here are five potential sleeper teams in 2024:

Josh Allen donned a gladiator-style costume for Pepsi’s short film that also features Travis Kelce, Justin Jefferson, Derrick Henry and Megan Thee Stallion.

The Bills need Allen to play like a gladiator to get to a Super Bowl.

Allen lost top receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis so he’s working with a new pass catching corps. The Bills made the playoffs last year so they wouldn’t be considered sleepers but expectations are much lower for a team that has lost in the divisional round three straight seasons after falling short in the AFC title game against Kansas City four years ago.

“It takes a little bit of luck to bounce your way, too, but ultimately, it comes down to winning your last game and that takes 53 guys on an entire roster, plus the practice squad, plus your training staff, plus your equipment staff, plus your weight-training staff and your strength staff,” Allen said. “It takes everybody in the entire building. So, looking forward to the challenge this year, and we’re going to do everything that we can do to get over that hump.”

They have a new coach and new quarterback after six straight losing seasons. Raheem Morris replaced Arthur Smith and four-time Pro Bowl QB Kirk Cousins got $100 million guaranteed in free agency to be the solution at the most important position.

Cousins has plenty of playmakers around him, including wide receivers Drake London and Darnell Mooney, tight end Kyle Pitts and running back Bijan Robinson.

The defense got a major boost with the addition of edge rusher Matthew Judon and safety Justin Simmons.

The Falcons are favorites to surpass three-time defending champion Tampa Bay and capture the NFC South, according to BetMGM Sportsbook.

“You just try to have the same habits and I think that gives you the best chance for success, but you certainly want to build momentum through the year,” Cousins said. “That certainly can be done when you’re playing well and winning.”

Aaron Rodgers’ return from a torn Achilles tendon and the excitement surrounding the team hardly makes the Jets a sleeper. But they were 7-10 last year because Rodgers only played four snaps.

If Rodgers stays healthy, the Jets will have a dangerous offense with running back Breece Hall and wide receivers Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams surrounding Rodgers.

Gang Green’s defense led by cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebackers C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams already is fierce. It’ll be even better if edge rusher Haason Reddick shows up.

“I feel like this entire team, this entire organization has a renewed mind set,” coach Robert Saleh said. “We’re just all looking forward to getting to compete on Monday night (against San Francisco).”

The Jaguars fell apart after an 8-3 start and missed the playoffs after losing five of their last six. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is healthy now and got paid to deliver.

Coach Doug Pederson already turned the franchise around after inheriting Urban Meyer’s mess and led them to a division title and playoff victory two years ago. Pederson knows what it takes to win. He led the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory with a backup quarterback by beating New England.

A revamped defense led by new coordinator Ryan Nielsen has a pair of star pass rushers in Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. The pieces are in place for the Jaguars to make a deep playoff run.

“Quite honestly, that’s what I was hired to do,” Pederson said about winning. “We just have to go do it. I can appreciate that. It doesn’t add any extra pressure or anything like that. We just have to go to our jobs.”

There’s plenty of hype surrounding the Bears because of Caleb Williams.

But the Bears have had only one winning season in the last 11 years and play in the tough NFC North.

Williams, the No. 1 overall pick, should finally answer Chicago’s search for a franchise quarterback. The Bears added wide receivers Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen and running back D’Andre Swift to make sure he has help.

The team might be a year or two from making a Super Bowl run but Williams should make an immediate impact.

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AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl