Meteorologists: This Winter Will Be Like Last

Nov. 15 -- At its best, weather forecasting is science-aided guesswork.

So why, one might ask, would anyone even attempt to tell us what the weather will be like for the entire continent several weeks, or even months, down the road?

Partly because we need to know, and partly because scientists have a bunch of new tools to help them make long-range predictions that were considered impossible just a couple of decades ago.

Giant Weather Patterns

In addition, what has changed in recent years has been our understanding of giant weather patterns that cover thousands of square miles and influence local weather around the planet. We've heard a lot about El Niño, also called the Southern Oscillation, in recent years, but that celebrated weather-driver is just the tip of the iceberg. Now we've got the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

All of these have to do with variations in ocean or atmospheric temperatures and currents over immense regions, and they set the stage for weather conditions for an entire season. Scientists disagree among themselves over which of those oscillations are the most important, but there is considerable agreement that what happens in Florida this December will depend on earlier conditions as far away as the central Pacific Ocean or the Arctic.

So what are we in for this winter?

Repeat Performance

There is surprising agreement among scientists who looked at different sets of data. This winter, according to scientists at both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, will be pretty much like last year's. So if you liked what you had last year, you should be happy this winter. But if you didn't, hang on for some tough sledding.

"I'm calling for a repeat of last year's winter," says William Patzert, an oceanographer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California.

"For most of the United States, winter 2001-02 will feel like a sequel to last year's cold season," says a formal statement from NOAA.