Below is the rush transcript of "This Week" on October 26, 2014. It may contain errors.
ANNOUNCER: ABC's This Week: terror attacks in Canada and New York. Brand new details in the investigations and why this morning federal officials are so worried about more lone wolves.
Ebola in America: the first case in a city of 8 million. The controversial new quarantine policy in place. Is it keeping us safe, or an unfair overreaction?
Exploding airbags: the urgent recall sparking new confusion and outrage. How did the government let this happen?
And countdown to the mid-terms. Nine days to go. The key races that have even the experts stumped. And George P. Bush revealing whether he thinks his father Jeb will run in 2016.
From ABC News, This Week with George Stephanopoulos begins now.
MARTHA RADDATZ, HOST: Good morning, I'm Martha Raddatz. And as we come on the air, new details about Ebola in America, a fiery new debate. Is it fair to order mandatory quarantines or health care workers returning from the hot zone? Or is it an overreaction? The debate exploding this morning after one health care worker says she was treated like a criminal.
Plus brand new information on the condition of that American doctor who has Ebola. ABC's Lindsey Davis, who is tracking it all for us in New York this morning.
LINDSEY DAVIS, ABC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Health care worker Kaci Hickox, the first high risk traveler quarantined in New Jersey has tested negative for Ebola, but remains under mandatory quarantine.
In an open letter to the Dallas Morning News, she says she was treated like a criminal when she returned home from treating Ebola patients in Sierra Leone. Of her arrival at Newark Airport, she writes, "I sat alone in the isolation tent and thought of many colleagues who will return home to America and face the same ordeal."
She says she was held for six hours, grilled by officials and given only a granola bar and water, detained even after her temperature was taken at a healthy 98 degrees.
On Saturday, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie responded
CHRIS CHRISTIE, GOVERNOR OF NEW JERSEY: I'm sorry if in any way she was inconvenienced, but the inconvenience that could occur from having folks who are symptomatic and ill out and amongst the public is a much, much greater concern of mine.
DAVIS: Late Saturday, Florida joined Illinois, New York and New Jersey, all now imposing their own mandatory 21 day quarantine, far stricter than the federal requirements for high-risk travelers entering the U.S.
Ashoka Mukpo, the freelance journalist who recovered from the virus, says the quarantine policy threatens those on the front lines of the fight against Ebola.
ASHOKA MUKPO, FREELANCE JOURNALIST: If it's going to do anything, it makes it more difficult for those people to go is not the right thing to do right now.
DAVIS: Hickox is one of four people in the New York area now quarantined by state order. Another, Morgan Dixon, seen here returning late last night to the Harlem apartment she shares with fiance and Ebola patient Dr. Craig Spencer who is still hospitalized.
Hickox's attorney tells ABC News they believe the state's quarantine policy infringes on her liberty interest and they are preparing to challenge it -- Martha.
RADDATZ: Thanks, Lindsey.
Joining us now, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Dr. Fauci, I want to go straight to the issue with this nurse. She was kept in a tent. She writes in this editorial, "I am scared, I am scared about how health workers will be treated. No one seemed to be in charge, no one would tell me what was going on, and what would happen to me." Is this how people are being trained to deal with people?
FAUCI: Well, first of all, two principles. One, we need to protect the American public, but two, we need to make the decisions based on scientific data. And we know that people who are without symptoms are not a threat to transmitting it. You don't get Ebola unless you come into direct contact with body fluid. So there are things that we have got to be careful.
RADDATZ: Which Governor Christie even said, she was symptomatic and ill. She wasn't symptomatic and ill.
FAUCI: No, and the point is, the scientific evidence is what needs to drive us. We appreciate the fears of the American people, but you don't want to have policy that would have negative unintended consequences.
RADDATZ: So how did this happen? How did this health care worker come in and be treated like that?
FAUCI: I cannot explain that, Martha. I can just tell you that what we want to do is to make sure first, protect the American public, but do so based on scientific data, where we keep repeating over and over again, the scientific data tells us that people who are without symptoms, with whom you don't come into contact with body fluids, are not a threat, they will not get infected.
RADDATZ: What's your reaction to this mandatory quarantine, then, in New York and New Jersey?
FAUCI: As a scientist and as a health person, if I were asked, I would not have recommended that.
RADDATZ: Does it put more pressure on the CDC to change its policy?
RADDATZ: Should there be some national policy?
FAUCI: The CDC will continue to make their policies based on scientific data. That does not mean that they are cavalier about this at all. There are different levels of risk to a health care worker, and that there are different levels of monitoring. If you put everyone in one basket, even people who are clearly no threat, then we have the problem of the disincentive of people that we need. Let's not forget the best way to stop this epidemic and protect America is to stop it in Africa, and you can really help stopping it in Africa if we have our people, our heroes, the health care workers, go there and help us to protect America. We can't lose sight of that.
RADDATZ: Let's go back to this week. And we saw Nina Pham released, we saw her hugging the president, clearly to send a message.
RADDATZ: But at the same time this week on Friday, Deborah Berger, a co-president of National Nurses United, testified that the new CDC guidelines were still unclear, especially the protective equipment. She said the lack of mandates and shifting guidelines and reliance on voluntary compliance has left caregivers vulnerable to infection.
FAUCI: Right now, if you look at the recommendations, they are clearly more stringent than they were right now. I know because I took care of Nina, and I am using the recommendations, and clearly if you follow the recommendations now and you are trained - but here is the critical issue, Martha. It isn't just a recommendation on the website. You have to be trained, you have to practice, you have to have people helping you put the material on and taking it off.
RADDATZ: OK, thanks very much for joining us, Dr. Fauci.
RADDATZ: Now to those stunning images of horror and mayhem captured during deadly terror attacks this week. In Canada, shots fired at a national war memorial and parliament, killing a soldier. And in New York City, a hatchet attack on police officers. Both incidents carried out by so-called lone wolves.
And there are new fears this morning about how many more are out there.
Dan Harris has been tracking the story all week.
DAN HARRIS, ABC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: It took only seven seconds, but it was devastating. A hatchet attack by this man against four New York City police officers, one of them hit in the head before the suspect was shot and killed.
Zale Thompson, a 32-year-old unemployed recent Muslim convert who police say was self-radicalized on the internet watching videos of ISIS and al Qaeda.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm very confident it was a terrorist attack. Certainly.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Is everybody OK?
HARRIS: It came just a day after that deadly rampage in the Canadian capital when another 32-year-old Muslim convert put the city of Ottawa on lockdown. After allegedly killing a soldier who was guarding Canada's National War memorial, Michael Zehaf-Bibeau stormed the parliament building as bystanders fled.
Shots were fired, and that's when the gunman started running, again with bullets flying at him, directly down this hallway. This is the incredible part, he then ran past these two rooms, which were filled with members of parliament. And in fact, in this room was the prime minister himself.
He was stopped by sergeant-at-arms Kevin Vickers, seen here just moments after he shot and killed the suspect. Zehaf-Bibeau, unemployed with a long criminal record, was reportedly frustrated over delays in getting a passport to travel to the Middle East.
The attack part of a worrying worldwide trend, after ISIS put out an online call for attacks against western targets, homegrown extremists have been either killed during their attacks, or arrested beforehand in America, Canada, England and Australia.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Terror is theater. And obviously they're trying to create and instill fear. And unfortunately I think we're going to see more of it.
HARRIS: For This Week, Dan Harris, ABC News, New York.
RADDATZ: Thanks to Dan.
More on this now from the chair of the House Committee on homeland security, Congressman Michael McCaul. And Matthew Olsen, who was the director of the National Counterterrorism Center until just last month.
I would like to start with you, Congressman McCaul. Do you consider the attack in the New York City subway a terror attack?
REP. MICHAEL MCCAUL, (R) TEXAS: I do. I think all of the markings are there of radical Islamist ties.
This is the profile of the enemy within: self-radicalization within the United States. We worry a lot about ISIS traveling overseas from Syria to the United States, but I think one of the greatest fears are those already within the United States who are being radicalized and inspired by the ISIS propaganda that's out there on the internet. They are waging a campaign of war against the west and the United States and these are three examples just last week of where they're winning.
RADDATZ: One of the things that struck me, and particularly this week with the school shooting, is worried about copy cats and that people are inspired not just by ISIS, but by seeing these other attacks. Congressman, quickly on that and then I want to go to Matt Olsen on that as well.
MCCAUL: Well, I -- I think, you know, getting attention, in a lot of cases, these are people in a basement radicalizing over the Internet. They're not mentally all that sound, in a lot of the cases. And they're very hard to stop. That's the main point I want to make is to detect and deter and destruct these cases, as FBI Comey, the director, said before my committee, are really one of the most difficult to stop. And it's like finding a needle in a haystack and then getting them out of that radicalization toward a deradicalization path.
RADDATZ: And -- and Matt Olsen, again, on the fears of this copycat, but is -- is there a strategy to stop this?
OLSEN: You know, I agree with Chairman McCaul. These are very difficult to stop. I mean this is the kind of violence that we've been concerned about, this spate of violence over the last week.
We need to learn more about the motivation for each of these. Obviously, each one is under investigation.
But, again, this is the kind of violence from these homegrown extremists that we've been concerned about over several years. This is not -- you know, this is not a new phenomenon.
The propaganda we see from ISIS does give us additional concern because they're very good at putting out their message online and seeking to, you know, have their supporters carry out attacks wherever they are.
And as Chairman McCaul said, it's very hard for local law enforcement or the intelligence community to stop these single individuals who are seeking to carry out these small scale attacks like we've seen over the past week.
RADDATZ: Let -- let's go back to the attack in -- in Canada. Canadian officials say the shooter was upset because he couldn't get a passport to Syria or Libya.
Would things have been different in the United States?
Would we have been able to track him in a different way, Matt Olsen?
OLSEN: Yes, it's -- it's hard to say exactly if things would have been different. I -- what I think this case highlights in Canada, look, we work really closely with our Canadian counterparts, as well as with law enforcement and services around Europe and around the world.
What this highlights is the need to have really good information sharing. So if we have somebody that we see who's -- who we're concerned about, we need to make sure that other countries have that information, as well. As -- and the other thing is we need to make sure that information that we get on the intelligence side is shared with law enforcement. That's one of the things that we worked on at The National Counterterrorism Center, really crossing that intelligence and law enforcement divide to make sure that the FBI and in particular, local police departments have the information -- information they need to identify these individuals and stop them before they're able to carry out an attack like this.
RADDATZ: And, Congressman McCaul, your colleague, Congressman Peter King, said this week, "We need to be more closely watching Muslim communities in the U.S. and go all-out with surveillance and be quick to call it terrorism."
Do you agree with him, that these communities should be under surveillance?
OLSEN: Well, I was under -- I was a federal prosecutor like Matt, worked on FISAs. And look, yes, surveillance of mosques is a very sensitive issue.
But what I would urge would be that we have greater community involvement within the mosques.
Remember Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the Boston bomber, who got literally kicked out of his mosque and yet there was no reporting of that at the time. And had there been, just maybe we could have stepped that particular bombing from happening.
And it's very true of a lot of these cases where they do attend mosques. There is radical behavior. And I think it's more of the FBI and Homeland Security working with state and locals within the...
OLSEN: -- the Muslim community.
RADDATZ: And those local law enforcement really have to come into play there, it seems like.
RADDATZ: Thank you very much to both of you.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Thank you, Martha.
RADDATZ: Now the growing outrage over dangerous, defective airbags that can explode like miniature bombs inside your car. A partial recall is still sparking confusion for millions of drivers.
And breaking this morning, the government's safety watchdog, under fire for its handling of that recall, is now facing a new federal investigation.
Here's ABC's David Kerley.
DAVID KERLEY, ABC NEWS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The Department of Transportation says it's going to look into how its National Highway Transportation Safety Administration handled the recall of millions of cars containing the potentially deadly equipment.
The problem has been around for years, but it was just this Monday that the agency told drivers to bring in their vehicles immediately. And the list of affected cars was incomplete, by a few million. And the Web site to check to see if your car is recalled crashed.
On Thursday, a harsh accusation from two senators -- the agency's response was glacial over the course of years.
It all started in 2004, when an airbag made by manufacturer Takata injured a Honda driver. Honda settled that case and started looking into the problem.
That problem -- the airbag inflator can explode too strongly in a humid climate, turning the metal cap into shards of shrapnel.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The expansion rate is so fast and so quick and violent, that it a actually expands this metal portion.
KERLEY: But Honda didn't issue any recalls until 2008, and then for only about 4,200 cars. The watchdog agency did open an investigation in 2009, but shut it down quickly.
This week, it was nearly eight million drivers told they should urgently replace defective airbags used by nearly a dozen of the world's biggest brands.
But the replacement parts just aren't there. They're leaving some manufacturers in the position of offering to turn off passenger side airbags and telling people not to sit there.
Regulators say it's legal, something that Senators Markey and Blumenthal say leaves them not just alarmed, but astonished.
For THIS WEEK, David Kerley, ABC News, Washington.
(END VIDEO TAPE)
KERLEY: Thanks, David.
Now, one of the senators who wrote that letter and is calling for a nationwide recall, Richard Blumenthal from Connecticut.
Senator, we learned from that report Congress is gearing up to investigate NHTSA.
What should they have done and when?
SEN. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D), CONNECTICUT: What they should have done is issue a national recall, not a selective, limited recall that applies to certain geographic regions that supposedly have higher humidity. They also should require the manufacturers to issue loaners or rental cars at no cost to the car owners so that they can drive safely in the meantime.
Disabling the airbags is of very questionable legality. In fact, I'd argue it is blatantly illegal without a finding from the secretary of Transportation that there's a basis for this exemption. And what also needs to happen in the long run is NHTSA to be overhauled. It really is a prisoner of a culture of capture...
RADDATZ: But what a...
BLUMENTHAL: -- too close to the industry...
RADDATZ: -- what about the car companies?
I mean how much liability should they have in this?
So it's the government and the car companies?
BLUMENTHAL: The car companies have a responsibility here to support a national recall and issue these loaners and also to support an overhaul of NHTSA so that it can be much more vigilant and vigorous in protecting auto safety.
RADDATZ: Senator, one of the things that was really stunning to me in reading about this case is the secrecy. Honda was settling some of these cases with people who had been injured in confidential deals with them.
How -- how does that happen?
And then there was no recall.
BLUMENTHAL: That is a profoundly important point and one that's often overlooked. Thank you for asking me about it.
I proposed legislation that would end these secret settlements because sunshine in litigation is absolutely necessary so the public is informed about defects that lead to litigation.
Too often, the courts approve these secret settlements. If the public were aware of the lawsuits that are brought, if they were settled in open view, available to the public, there would be much quicker and more vigorous action to end the defects that lead to these horrendous crashes and exploding airbags, in this case.
RADDATZ: And just quickly on this last question, is part of the problem that NHTSA is so small?
I -- I read that the Office of Defects has 51 employees tracing 250 million cars.
So is it just too small?
BLUMENTHAL: Resources are very, very important. NHTSA is probably too small. But the culture is important. This culture of capture, the collegial or friendly relationship with the automakers. And the automakers have a responsibility here to expedite replacement parts so that the defective airbags can be repaired. And NHTSA ought to be all over this industry.
There are times when a good working relationship is fine. But there are also times when the relationship has to be confrontational, not collegial. And NHTSA is maybe too small...
RADDATZ: Thank you.
BLUMENTHAL: -- but the culture needs to be changed, as well.
RADDATZ: Thanks so much, Senator Blumenthal, for joining us.
And up next, nine days to go. We're on the ground in the key states that will determine Senate control.
Who's got the edge?
Plus, a revealing interview with George P. Bush on following in his family's footsteps when Republicans should compromise and will his dad run in 2016?
Back in just two minutes.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) RADDATZ: Back now with our politics buzzboard. Topping it off, we're in crunch time, just nine days to go. And in the critical battle for control of the Senate, these are the 15 races everyone is watching.
RADDATZ: Republicans need to pick up six states in order to win back the Senate. On the trail this week, despite his sagging approval ratings, the president again saying his policies are on the ballot.
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The bottom line is, though, these are all folks who vote with me. They have supported my agenda in congress.
RADDATZ: And it's not just Obama who is struggling with popularity, but congress, too. Check out our new ABC News/Washington Post poll. 72 percent disapprove of Republicans in Congress and 67 percent disapprove of Democrats, a record high.
So, who will have the edge a week from Tuesday? Right now, Nate Silver and his team over at FiveThirtyEight say Republicans have a 61 percent chance of taking the Senate, falling 1 percent since last week.
RADDATZ: Now, let's dig into three of the critical races we'll all be talking about on election night with Reporters who have been tracking every move in these campaigns.
Let's start off in New Hampshire where former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown has switched states, now taking on incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen.
And we're joined from Manchester by WMUR political reporter James Pindell. And James, Senator Shaheen is facing a problem so many Democrats have this year being tied to President Obama. Here is what she said this week when asked why the president wasn't campaigning with her.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JEANNE SHAHEEN, (D) NEW HAMPSHIRE: The fact is, he's busy in Washington. He's dealing with the Ebola threat. He's dealing with the threat from ISIS. I think he's exactly where he needs to be.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RADDATZ: So, James, is the translation there stay away from my campaign, please?
JAMES PINDELL, WMUR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: In short, it is.
Remember, Jeanne Shaheen is the most successful New Hampshire Democrat since Franklin Pierce was elected president. She's the first woman to serve as a U.S. Senator and a Governor in the nation's history. And she's still very personally popular here. She's still well above 50 percent. Some polls have her at 53, 54 percent.
But Barack Obama has been that anchor, dragging her down. He is the reason this race is competitive right now. He may be the only reason why Scott Brown is even in this race.
RADDATZ: Bottom line, who is your guess to win right now?
PINDELL: Well, look, this race is a toss-up. The Scott Brown's campaign really likes where they're at right now. They feel like they have a little bit of momentum. They're really excited. They're really close. And there's just one debate left.
RADDATZ: OK. Thank you, James.
And now to the crucial Senate race in Iowa. The Republican candidate is Jon Ernst, the Democratic candidate is Bruce Braley. Let's head out to Des Moines and check in with Jennifer Jacobs, she is the chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register. And Jennifer, Democrats didn't expect a tough race here, but that all changed with this comment from Bruce Braley talking about popular Republican Senator Chuck Grassley.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BRUCE BRALEY, DEMOCRATIC SENATE CANDIDATE, IOWA: You might have a farmer from Iowa who never went to law school, never practiced law, serving as the next chair of the Senate judiciary committee.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RADDATZ: Oh, a candidate in Iowa taking a shot at the farmers. Has Braley been able to move past that?
JENNIFER JACOBS, DES MOINES REGISTER: That remark has had some real shelf life here in Iowa. Remember that Bruce Braley apologized to Senator Grassley almost immediately after that clip came out in March, but there have been more than a dozen GOP attack ads trying to keep it fresh in voter's minds. So it's just been really hard for Bruce Braley to overcome that, sort of like Mitt Romney's 47 percent comment.
RADDATZ: So, let's talk about Joni Ernst. We've watched her television ads where she talks about castrating hogs. It's gotten a lot of national attention, but how is that playing in Iowa?
JACOBS: She was virtually unknown one year ago. And now our polling shows that she is better known with likely voters than Bruce Braley, who is an eight year congressman. So, clearly those ads are breaking through.
RADDATZ: So where are people placing their bets on who wins this race in Iowa?
JACOBS: Ernst has led pretty consistently in the last few polls, but this race is a coin toss.
RADDATZ: Thanks very much, Jennifer.
And it's not just the Senate at stake on election night, 36 governor seats are up for grabs. And a critical race down in Florida, which could have huge implications for 2016. Incumbent Republican Rick Scott is facing off against former Republican turned independent now Democrat Charlie Crist. Let's go down to Tampa. Adam Smith is the political editor for the Tampa Bay Times.
And Adam, these two are virtually tied in recent polls, but we're also seeing that voters view them favorably.
ADAM SMITH, TAMPA BAY TIMES: Yeah, they have -- but between them they've spent $96 million in TV ads so far, overwhelmingly negative. So, you know, with 10 days out both these guys are pretty much loathed by the electorate down here.
RADDATZ: And now the big guns are being called in: Bill Clinton, Chris Christie will be there later today. And it underscores just how important this race is to the 2016 presidential election as well.
SMITH: Yeah, Florida is sort of a bizarre state, because we're the ultimate, we're the biggest battleground state, and yet in state politics Democratic Party is virtually irrelevant in state government. So if the Democrats win the governor's mansion with Charlie Crist, that's going to be a huge deal and certainly worth a couple of points for the next presidential nominee, whether that's Hillary Clinton who whoever else.
RADDATZ: And your bet on who wins?
SMITH: My bet is -- I wouldn't bet. I would say we've had already more than a million voters cast their votes. The early voting looks pretty good for the Democrats and for Charlie Crist. I wouldn't bet this is a photo finish kind of race.
RADDATZ: You're a very smart man not to bet. I wouldn't either.
Adam, thanks very much.
Up next, the roundtable weighs in on the mid-terms. Plus, Jon Karl's revealing interview with George P. Bush making news about 2016.
And behind the scenes with brave investigators risking everything to shine a light on war crimes. We're back in two minutes.
RADDATZ: Now our Closer Look at George P. Bush.
He grabbed headlines back when he announced he was running for Texas land commissioner.
The bilingual 38-year-old seen as a potential GOP star.
But now it's questions about his dad, Jeb, that are popping up most on the campaign trail.
Chief White House correspondent Jonathan Karl met up with him in College Station, Texas.
GEORGE P. BUSH (R), CANDIDATE FOR COMMISSIONER OF THE TEXAS GENERAL LAND OFFICE: I want to state all of our candidates, as well.
JONATHAN KARL, ABC NEWS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Down in the heart of Texas, there's another George Bush running for office. George P. Bush has been immersed in politics about as long as he's been walking.
UNIDENTIFIED CHILD: I pledge allegiance...
KARL: He was just 12 when he first took the stage of a Republican National Convention. He has spoken at so many of them.
Now, 38, he finally has his own campaign bus.
(on camera): And you've been drawn to politics for a long time. This is the first time you're actually running.
BUSH: That's right. You know, until you put your name on the side of a bus or a placard or on the ballot, it's a different level of sacrifice. And it's one that I take very seriously.
KARL (voice-over): Now he's running to be Texas land commissioner. But on the stump, his focus goes beyond Texas.
BUSH: This president is the one leading the war on women.
KARL: And this Bush, whose mother is from Mexico, says he wants to broaden Republican Party appeal to Hispanics and to young people and to moderates, too.
(on camera): Does that mean being pragmatic?
Does that mean being willing to compromise with -- with Democrats?
BUSH: I think it's -- it's all of the above, at least in Texas. We work with Democrats. We work with Republicans of all stripes to make our state move forward.
KARL (voice-over): As land commissioner, he'll oversee millions of acres of oil and natural gas reserves. But he also talks about the need for renewable energy and he attempts to stake out a middle ground on climate change.
BUSH: Well, sort of.
KARL: How big a threat is climate change to the Texas coastline?
BUSH: The Texas coastline is impacted by -- by rising sea levels. And, again, the question is whether or not that's -- that's manmade. And I'll leave that to the scientists.
But at least in Texas, the facts showed that on average, about 17 feet of wet beach is lost due to coastal erosion and so...
KARL: Which is a huge problem for Texas.
BUSH: It's -- it's a huge problem.
KARL: But you don't doubt that human activity contributes to climate change?
BUSH: Well, we'll see in terms of the science, I think other -- there is -- there's a wide range that has been discussed. And, again, I'm not a scientist by any stretch. But everywhere from, you know, no impact at all to 100 percent.
KARL (voice-over): On the trail, there are constant reminders that he's in the family business.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I voted for your grandfather.
BUSH: All right.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I voted for your father. I'm voting for you.
KARL: There's the grandfather who was president and the uncle and listen to what he told us about his father.
(on camera): So is your dad going to run for president?
BUSH: I think he's still assessing it.
KARL: Do you think it's more than 50 percent, less than 50 percent?
BUSH: I think it's -- it's more than likely that he's giving this a serious thought and moving -- and moving forward...
KARL: More than likely that he'll run?
BUSH: That he'll run. If you had asked me a few years back, I -- I would have said it was less likely and a...
KARL: So the family will be behind him 100 percent?
BUSH: The family will be behind him 100 percent if he decides to do it.
KARL (voice-over): What about George P. himself?
You don't grow up in this family without at least thinking about it, do you?
(on camera): You had to at some point think, ah, maybe I'll be president someday.
BUSH: No, I haven't. I actually...
KARL: Come on. I mean even if -- I've had that thought. I mean I -- I even had my cabinet picked out, I think, when I was a teenager.
So you never once thought about...
BUSH: I've thought about...
KARL: -- (INAUDIBLE) being president?
BUSH: I've -- I've thought about service, but I never really understood how it would manifest itself.
KARL: I guess we'll have to take his word on that.
For THIS WEEK, Jonathan Karl, ABC News, College Station, Texas.
(END VIDEO TAPE)
RADDATZ: Thanks, Jon.
The roundtable is here now.
Former New Mexico governor, Bill Richardson; Illinois Congressman, Adam Kinzinger; Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson; and LZ Granderson from CNN and ESPN.
Their take on the midterms and more after the break.
But first, the Powerhouse Puzzler and it's a royal one. This week, 88-year-old Queen Elizabeth issued her first ever Tweet sent from the account @britishmonarchy. She signed it Elizabeth R.
But do you know in which decade the queen sent her first e-mail?
Back in two minutes with the answer.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
RADDATZ: So in which decade did Queen Elizabeth send her first e-mail?
Let's see what you came up with.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: 2010.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, I've said -- that's of this decade.
RADDATZ: OK. OK.
ANDERSON: I went a little late.
RADDATZ: Oh, you're so, so, so far off.
The answer, the 1970s, specifically...
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What?
RADDATZ: -- 1976. She sent the e-mail over the ARPANET, an early version of the Internet, while visiting a research center in England.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We were way off.
RADDATZ: Way off.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We were.
RADDATZ: We're back in two minutes.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MONICA LEWINSKY: I fell in love with my boss in a 22-year-old sort of way. It happened.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RADDATZ: And on that note, we're back with the roundtable.
And I want to go back to President Obama and something, Governor Richardson, that the WMUR reporter said, which was basically that President Obama is weighing like an anchor on candidate in New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen, but also in other key races. And Republicans are clearly using that as well. Should they be?
RICHARDSON: Well, I'm disappointed in my party, in Democrats, the way they have been defensive about the president. I'd be talking positive. Voters want to hear positive messages, that Democratic candidates are strong. I'd be talking about unemployment going down, the health care plan working. I'd be talking about the war on ISIS. We've got a strategy of 60 countries supporting us. You know, I...
RADDATZ: But that doesn't seem to be working, talking about that, does it? Does it, Congressman Kinzinger.
KINZINGER: You look in 2006 -- I mean, obviously, you know, with the president -- and President Bush's unpopularity, Republicans lost both chambers, but, you know, the surge was being implemented. We saw the war in Iraq turn around at that time, but the president weighed as an anchor on the Republican Party. And I think that's happening now.
I mean -- the American people -- and when I'm out in my district talking to folks, they just...
RADDATZ: And you're on the ballot.
KINZINGER: Yeah, yeah. They just feel unsafe. I mean, you look at the expansion of the war in the Middle East, which I supported a year ago at this table. And the president just this summer came around to understand that this was a growing cancer. The Ebola crisis. There's all kinds of things that the American people just feel unsafe right now.
And I think, you know, with a senator it's -- you don't have as close of a connection as you do a member of the House, and so they tend to get this in essence painted by their president more than maybe a House member who can go out and have a local connection.
RADDATZ: Kristen, could he go positive in other states?
ANDERSON: Well, I'd really like to see Republicans also talking about what they'd want to do, for instance, in the Senate if they were to pick up that Senate majority. I think Republicans here in the last few days in addition to the fact that people are frustrated with this president, also need to talk about what they would do if they take, for instance, a majority in the Senate. What will they do if they hold both chambers of congress?
I think by presenting that positive image out there -- you know, right now a lot of the polls show that even though Republicans are set to do very well in this election, people are still uncertain about the Republican Party as a whole. And I think even if Republicans do very, very well there's a risk that -- you know, there's still work to be done to repair the GOP brand.
RADDATZ: And LZ, you've been looking at the Illinois governor's race, the president's home state. He's campaigned for incumbent Governor Pat Quinn, but the polls show a very close race. So, so much for that positive campaigning.
GRANDERSON: Well, Illinois is unique in the sense that the economy of Illinois is so poor. We're one of the -- you know this, congressman -- one of the lowest in terms of unemployment, falling way behind the national trend. And so there are other factors involved with what's happening in Illinois and not just President Obama.
As a matter of fact, his opponent, Bruce Rauner, has been going into Cook County specifically where the majority of Democrats are located, and finding ways of getting Democrats to come to his side because of strictly the economy of Illinois and Pat Quinn and not necessarily tied to President Obama.
But I agree with the governor here, I'm actually astounded at the number of Democrats who have been cowards, in my estimation, and running from President Obama except when it comes to raising campaign funds. He's still pretty popular there.
RICHARDSON: And I think, Martha, the Hispanic vote -- everyone has talked about what they're going to do. My view is...
RADDATZ: Colorado in particular.
RICHARDSON: Colorado. I think that's Senator Mark Udall will pull through because of the Hispanic vote.
And Illinois, that's a growing Hispanic population. I think Governor Quinn is going to win that one.
Georgia, 9 percent of the vote there is now Hispanic. I think that's going to help Sam Nunn's daughter...
RICHARDSON: Michelle Nunn.
So, I believe in New Mexico, I'm going to go way out on the limb and predict Attorney General Gary King beating Susana Martinez.
So, the Hispanic vote is a little down, because they didn't get the deportation issue -- easing of deportations, but they know President Obama has been strong on immigration reform. And, you know, I think the Republican Party -- and this is a Republican that I think is -- sees the big picture -- and George P. Bush said that. You know, they've got to go after the Hispanic vote. They're not doing well, because of their very harsh stance on immigration reform.
KINZINGER: Yeah, I agree that the Republican Party has to show -- or as Kristen was saying, as the governor saying over the next couple of years. That's going to be key to 2016.
The key I think to a week from now, turnout is going to be a big deal. You know, is the Democrat-base -- Democratic base motivated to turn out, or is it the Republican base? The Hispanic question is there.
You know, Bruce Rauner in Illinois, for instance, has a great turnout program, which we haven't seen in Illinois before. We've never been good as Republicans in Illinois at turning out. He's got a great program in place.
So, I think it's going to be an interesting election night. And I think it's going to be very positive for Republicans in Illinois and around the country.
RADDATZ: But Kristen, let's go back to George and the Michelle Nunn race. That could be a surprise pickup for Democrats.
ANDERSON: Yes. Well, so in a variety of different states, the congressman is absolutely right, Republicans are doing a really good job on turnout. And you take a look at, for instance, a state like Iowa where Joni Ernst who is running for that seat has, you know, banked a lot of these votes in these early mail-in votes.
Georgia is a place where it's kind of the opposite. I think neither party really knew that the race there was going to be so competitive. And so now, you know, Democrats are trying to really remake the electorate there and have really strong turnout, because Georgia is not a state where you typically think of Democrats as doing very well.
But overall, Republicans in states like Colorado, in states like Iowa, have implemented a much stronger ground game so that they're not caught off guard like they may have been in year's past.
RADDATZ: Let's go forward to 2016 and you get to talk about this first. You heard what George P. Bush said about his dad, more than likely he'll move forward with a run. You all looked surprised. That was news.
GRANDERSON: Well, I was still shocked that a land commissioner candidate has a bus.
RADDATZ: Surprised by Jon Karl's cabinet, you know...
GRANDERSON: I was like, wow, that's a little bit aggressive.
You know, it's really weird because Jeb Bush right now in today's climate is viewed as a moderate because of the extremists that have taken over the narrative over the past four years. When you look at his policies, he's not really a moderate, but because of the extremism we've seen in the media since the Tea Party has gotten involved, he appears to be a moderate and thus I think a little bit more appealing.
But I get the sense that American people do not want a monarchy. And I get the sense that there's a reason why people are not as happy about Hillary Clinton as they are not as happy about Bush is because they're tired of Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton. They really do want a different voice.
RADDATZ: What do you think on the Jeb Bush question first?
RICHARDSON: Well, I -- you know, I've said before that I think if Jeb Bush is the candidate we, the Democrats, have to be very concerned, because he is a moderate. He is appealing to Hispanic votes that are going to keep growing. I keep coming back to this. And we're a cyclical country, Martha, eight years one party, eight years another party.
So, I believe that 2016 is going to be a year in which, yes, national trends, the young voters, minority voters, Hispanic voters, because of the immigration issue and other issues -- social issues, women -- are going to gravitate back to the Democratic Party. My worry is that 2014, our Democratic base is not going to turn out.
RADDATZ: That's the hard part.
RICHARDSON: It will. It will in 2016. I'm worried about the turnout, about the base turning out now. That's my concern.
But I don't think we're going to do as badly as people predict. My view is, yes, we'll lose some seats in the House. I think we'll split governorships. In the Senate, I think it's going to end up being dead even, that's my view. And the vice president will break the tie. That's my...
RADDATZ: I want to go back to Hillary Clinton. And you saw Monica Lewinsky speaking this week and what she said. Will that make any difference if Hillary Clinton runs?
KINZINGER: I don't think so. I mean, look, I was -- I was a teenager, I think, when this whole thing was going down...
RADDATZ: I think you were about 16 maybe? I'm sure your parents were turning down the radio.
KINZINGER: I learned a little about -- yeah, they were.
No, but you know, so I don't think it's going to really have much of an impact. And I mean, it really hasn't had an impact on Bill Clinton, right, who was really the guy that led this -- but, you know, I think on 2016, by the way, I'd love to see Jeb. I'd love to see Chris Christie. I think Paul Ryan would be a great candidate. The one person I don't want to see is somebody like a Rand Paul who has put out budgets to cut the military in half. I think that would be devastating for our party right now.
RADDATZ: Kristen, I want to ask you quickly about 2016, too.
ANDERSON: I would be very excited about the prospect of Governor Bush running as somebody who comes from the state of Florida I think very highly of him.
But frankly, the entire 2016 field for the Republican Party I think looks very strong. We have such a wide variety of candidates, all of whom I can imagine at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. And I think back in 2012, the options were fewer for the GOP. I'm very excited about the number of -- the breadth of different views we might have up on that stage and how each of them I think represents a unique facet of where the GOP is.
RADDATZ: We're all very excited about that race. And it's two years away.
Coming up, why some experts now say what women have been told about mammograms is wrong.
RADDATZ: Across the country, so much is decked out in pink for Breast Cancer Awareness Month. But now, controversial new recommendations are challenging what all women have been told about the fight against the disease.
Here's chief medical editor, Dr. Richard Besser.
DR. RICHARD BESSER, ABC NEWS CHIEF MEDICAL EDITOR (voice-over): Peggy Ornstein was big on pink. Though doctors said 35 was too young for her to have a mammogram, it found a lump and she had surgery.
PEGGY ORNSTEIN: And I really believe that the mammogram that I'd had early on had been instrumental in saving my life.
BESSER: But 16 years later, in spite of that early detection, Peggy's breast cancer returned. And she looked at the numbers. Between 1987 and 2010, as mammograms became the focus of The Pink Ribbon Campaign, the rate of mammograms doubled, but breast cancer deaths decreased by only about 2 percent per year.
ORNSTEIN: Early detection was becoming such a mantra and it was so pounded into American women's heads that if it wasn't really decreasing the number of deaths from breast cancer, it was really important to find out why and what was going on.
BESSER: Some cancer specialists think that pink's emphasis is all wrong.
DR. LAURA ESSERMAN: What we had hoped with the early detection concept is that we would be able to screen our way into a cure. But I think we have to accept that that is only part of the story.
BESSER: Dr. Laura Esserman chairs a National Cancer Institute advisory panel that is calling for sweeping changes to how we treat breast cancer.
ESSERMAN: The problem with doing lots of mammograms is that the more you screen, the more you're going to find. But 75 percent of the biopsies turn out to be nothing. And sometimes we're finding precancerous lesions or lesions that we call cancer that, in fact, probably have a much lower risk of progressing than we had thought previously.
BESSER (on camera): So cancers that aren't really acting like cancer?
BESSER (voice-over): One study estimates that 1.3 million women have gotten a breast cancer diagnosis for a lesion that would never have hurt them. That's about a third of all breast cancer detected.
(on camera): So are you saying that women should not get mammograms?
ESSERMAN: I'm not saying that mammograms don't have value. I'm saying we need to do a better job of figuring out for whom they have value. It's time for us to explore and to understand who is at risk for what kind of breast cancer and to start to tailor our screening.
BESSER (voice-over): The panel recommends a revolution -- scrapping the idea of annual mammograms starting at a certain age, depending on risk factors like weight, alcohol intake, exercise, genetics. Some women should have more screening, some less. And a radical step -- stop treating some early stage of lower risk cancer. Stop even calling them cancer. Because they lead to unneeded surgery, chemo and radiation and all their side effects.
But other experts say this is a dangerous path.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If you have an accurate diagnosis of something that can turn into cancer or can be lethal, even if the chances are low, as long as those chances are not zero, you have to treat it as a serious disease.
ESSERMAN: Women are afraid to do less. And I think physicians are afraid to do less. Mammograms are just one piece of the puzzle. Forty-five thousand women are dying of this disease.
BESSER: For Peggy, still in treatment, it's time to stop promoting pink and start focusing on research and prevention.
ORNSTEIN: We are so over dependent and so overconfident in screening. But now it's the time to stop, reevaluate and change it, so that we can really make a difference in women's lives and health.
BESSER: For THIS WEEK, Dr. Richard Besser, ABC News, New York.
(END VIDEO TAPE)
RADDATZ: Our Sunday Spotlight after this from our ABC stations.
RADDATZ: Now our Sunday Spotlight shining on a new Netflix documentary called "E Team," about the extraordinary bravery of a unique group -- human rights investigators who fight for peace by exposing war crimes.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They shoot them here.
RADDATZ (voice-over): They are witness to horrors few ever see, often the first ones on the scene of some of the world's most gruesome atrocities, taking unimaginable risks to make sure the victims' stories are documented.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They bombed our dock just half an hour ago.
RADDATZ (on camera): What?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Can we go there?
RADDATZ (voice-over): They are Human Rights Watch emergency teams, who rush into conflict zones, collect evidence to investigate war crimes.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I found what we're looking for.
RADDATZ: And now, a Netflix documentary has captured the passion of these E Teams.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: A lot of people ask me the laws of war.
Well, what's the point?
War is hell. But there is a point, actually, because you're supposed to draw some red lines of acceptable behavior.
RADDATZ: The filmmakers know all too well how risky their work is. Their colleague, American journalist, James Foley, was killed by ISIS two months ago. Foley filmed some of the scenes in the movie, like this one in Libya. The film is dedicated to him.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I met Jim in Libya. He literally walked into my frame.
It's hard to find the right mix of people that really can sense how difficult it is for the people in front of their camera, the beauty with which they empathize with the characters in front of the camera. But it's astounding.
RADDATZ: ISIS operates not only in Syria, where Foley was killed, but in Iraq, where Abrahams has been investigating since the film was made. He rates the terror group's crimes as some of the worst he's ever seen.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What's happening in Iraq really scrapes low down in terms of humanity and what's disturbing.
RADDATZ (on camera): And the military action?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The military action is not going to solve the crisis in Iraq. It must be political.
RADDATZ (voice-over): But what is remarkable about this film is you see these committed investigators not just on the job, but at home. Ole and Anya, who we see sneaking into Syria -- she was pregnant at the time -- are married and live in Paris with their 14-year-old son, the second arrived this year.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's not much that's going to stop Anya from doing the work that she does. She's as committed as just about anyone I've ever met.
RADDATZ: And Fred?
He has two young children, which he says always makes him think hard about what he does.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: With children, it gets harder for me, because you identify.
RADDATZ (on camera): That could be me.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.
How would I react if this was my child who was missing or injured or killed?
RADDATZ (voice-over): But for these courageous Team members, they want to make sure the stories of all these children aren't forgotten.
(END VIDEO TAPE)
RADDATZ: And a special note this morning, journalism lost a giant this week. Ben Bradlee, former executive editor of "The Washington Post," died Tuesday at the age of 93. He was best known for overseeing the paper's historic coverage of Watergate, but his energy, quick wit and charm were unrivaled.
And now, we honor our fellow Americans who served and sacrificed.
RADDATZ (voice-over): This week, the Pentagon announced the death of one service member in Iraq.
(END VIDEO TAPE)
RADDATZ: That's all for us today.
Thanks for sharing part of your Sunday with us.
Check out "World News Tonight."
And we'll see you back here next week.
Have a great day.