American Airlines parent AMR posts Q2 loss

— -- American, the No. 2 airline in size, set the tone for what is expected to be a frightening round of quarterly reports. Historically, airlines have needed big second and third quarters to survive during lean fourth and first quarters.

As a result, analysts are turning up the volume on their warnings that another round of airline bankruptcies is likely late this year or in 2010.

Most endangered, according to most analysts, are US Airways and United, with American a distant third.

JPMorgan analyst Jamie Baker told clients Wednesday that AMR's "liquidity pantry is still fairly well stocked" with $3.3 billion in cash and $3.7 billion of assets that could be sold or refinanced to raise cash.

Baker said he considers US Airways' liquidity pantry to be "bare," and United parent UAL's to be "stocked with canned goods long past their expiration date."

Airlines are struggling despite oil prices being half that of July 2008.

"If someone predicted oil prices would be cut in half from nearly $150 a barrel a year ago, yet the airline industry would be in worse shape, not many people would have believed it," American CEO Gerard Arpey wrote in a letter to employees.

During the recession, millions of travelers — particularly the high-fare-paying business travelers — have reduced their flying, bought cheaper seats or stayed home. The effects are seen in American's quarterly numbers: