Why AP called Nevada’s presidential race for Trump

WASHINGTON -- President-elect Donald Trump won his sixth battleground state of the 2024 election early Saturday, beating Vice President Kamala Harris in Nevada.

The Associated Press declared Trump the winner after concluding there were not enough uncounted ballots in the state’s strongest Democratic areas to overcome the former president’s 46,000-vote lead over the Democratic nominee.

Trump clinched a second term early Wednesday when Wisconsin pushed him past the 270 electoral votes needed to win, so Nevada’s six electoral votes only added to the size of his victory: He now has 301 electoral votes and has won six of the seven battleground states. Only Arizona remains to be called.

The AP only declares a winner once it can determine that a trailing candidate can’t close the gap and overtake the vote leader.

Here’s a look at how the AP called this race:

CANDIDATES: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Joel Skousen (Independent American Party) vs. “None of these candidates.”

WINNER: Trump.

POLL CLOSING TIME: 10 p.m. ET

ABOUT THE RACE:

Nevada has one of the nation’s best overall track records as a presidential bellwether, although voters there supported Democrat Hillary Clinton over Trump in 2016. The state remains a hotly contested battleground. Both Harris and Trump made frequent visits to Nevada since becoming their parties’ nominees, including Halloween rallies in Clark County, home of Henderson and Las Vegas. Both campaigns concentrated their visit to those two cities, as well as Reno in Washoe County.

In statewide elections, Democrats tend to carry only two of Nevada’s 17 counties: Clark and Washoe. Whether they win depends on how big their margins are in those two counties. Clark County has by far the largest population in the state. A large vote margin there is vital to Democratic electoral success. It comprised 69% of the total statewide vote in 2020. Washoe is more competitive, although Democrats have consistently prevailed there in high-profile statewide campaigns, including Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak’s unsuccessful 2022 reelection bid. Republicans tend to win the rest of the state by wide margins.

WHY AP CALLED THE RACE:

Most of the final ballots to be counted come from Clark and Washoe counties. They both have long-established histories of supporting Democrats for president. Statewide, votes counted after Election Day have also tended to favor Democrats.

Trump’s vote lead narrowed as more of these ballots are counted over the course of the week, but Harris was not winning those ballots by a large enough margin to overtake Trump for the lead. At the time AP called the race, AP estimated Harris would need to win 85% of all ballots left to count — a margin of victory she never achieved in any update since polls closed.

___

Learn more about how and why the AP declares winners in U.S. elections at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.