AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New Mexico on Election Day

WASHINGTON -- Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, Republican former President Donald Trump and five third-party candidates will compete for New Mexico's five electoral votes, but the most competitive race on the ballot will likely be a U.S. House race that could determine control of the narrowly divided chamber.

New Mexico was once one of the nation's most competitive presidential battlegrounds, having gone for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 and Republican George W. Bush in 2004 by less than 1 percentage point. Democratic presidential candidates have since won seven of the last eight general elections in the state, where neither of the major party candidates has campaigned this year.

In the U.S. House, Democratic Rep. Gabriel Vasquez is seeking a second term in the 2nd Congressional District against the Republican he narrowly defeated in 2022, former Rep. Yvette Herrell. Immigration has been a major issue in the sprawling district that spans the state's entire border with Mexico. Republicans hold a slim majority in the House, and a Herrell victory would complicate Democratic hopes to retake the chamber.

In the U.S. Senate, Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich is seeking a third term against Republican Nella Domenici. She is the daughter of the late Republican Sen. Pete Domenici, who served six terms, from 1973 to 2009 and was the last Republican elected to the Senate from New Mexico.

More than 60% of New Mexicans typically vote before Election Day. A 2023 law requires counties that have not completed their tally of absentee votes by 11 p.m. local time to stop their counts of those ballots for the night and resume counting the next day between 9:30 a.m. and 9:30 p.m. local time.

Democratic presidential candidates historically have won most of the state’s largest counties — Bernalillo, which includes Albuquerque; Santa Fe, the state’s capital; and Dona Ana, in the south part of the state. Republicans tend to do well in the east of the state bordering Texas, and in San Juan County in the Four Corners area in the northwest.

The Associated Press doesn’t make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race hasn’t been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, like candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear it hasn’t declared a winner and explain why.

Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 election in New Mexico:

Nov. 5.

9 p.m. ET.

5 awarded to statewide winner.

President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (DTS) vs. Chase Oliver (OTH) vs. Jill Stein (Green) and two others.

U.S. Senate: Heinrich (D) vs. Domenici (R).

2nd Congressional District: Vasquez (D) vs. Herrell (R).

U.S. House, state Senate, state House, district attorney, bond measures, ballot measures.

2020: Biden (D) 54%, Trump (R) 44%, AP race call: Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, 9 p.m. ET.

Registered voters: 1,361,117 (as of Sept. 30, 2024). About 43% Democrats, 31% Republicans and 24% other.

Voter turnout in 2020 presidential election: 68% of registered voters.

Votes cast before Election Day 2020: about 85% of the total vote.

Votes cast before Election Day 2022: about 63% of the total vote.

Votes cast before Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote tracker.

First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 9:24 p.m. ET.

By midnight ET: about 78% of total votes cast were reported.

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Associated Press writer Maya Sweedler contributed to this report.

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Read more about how U.S. elections work at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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In a story published October 25, 2024, about the election in New Mexico, The Associated Press erroneously reported that a 2023 law required counties to report early and absentee vote totals by 11 p.m. ET. It has been corrected to reflect that the 2023 law requires counties that do not complete their counts of absentee votes by 11 p.m. local time to stop their counts of those ballots for the night and resume on the subsequent day from 9:30 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. local time.