UN envoy to Yemen warns of a ‘devastating’ regional escalation, but points to glimmer of hope

UNITED NATIONS -- The U.N. envoy for Yemen warned Tuesday that recent developments in the Red Sea, Israel and inside the country “show the real danger of a devastating region-wide escalation” — but he also pointed to a glimmer of hope.

Hans Grundberg said Yemen’s warring parties — the internationally recognized government and Houthi rebels – informed him Monday night “that they have agreed on a path to de-escalate a cycle of measures and countermeasures which had sought to tighten their grip on the banking and transport sectors.”

But he warned the U.N. Security Council that seven months of escalating actions reached “a new and dangerous level last week” which saw a Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv and Israeli retaliatory attacks on Yemen’s key port of Hodeida and its oil and power facilities.

He said Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea and surrounding waterways continue and the rebels are escalating their crackdown “on civic space and on international organizations.” Airstrikes on Houthi targets by the United States and United Kingdom are also continuing, he said.

Grundberg also warned that escalating economic issues have been “translating into public threats to return to full-fledged war.”

Yemen has been engulfed in civil war since 2014, when the Iranian-backed Houthis seized much of northern Yemen and forced the internationally recognized government to flee from the capital, Sanaa. A Saudi-led coalition intervened the following year in support of government forces, and in time the conflict turned into a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

While fighting has decreased considerably since a six-month truce in 2022, Grundberg told the council that clashes have been reported along numerous frontlines this month “and we have witnessed an increase in military preparations and reinforcements.”

Rivalry between the Houthis and the southern government have fueled an economic divide, with the rivals establishing separate and independent central banks and different versions of the country’s currency, the riyal.

Grundberg told reporters after the briefing that the rivals informed him Monday night that they reached agreement on four points to de-escalate the monthslong standoff on the banking sector and the operation of Yemenia Airways.

He told the council the “understanding” followed months of contacts with his office, which warned of the risk to the Yemeni people that “the deepening weaponization of the economy” would pose.

“I welcome the parties’ decision to choose a path of dialogue and I look forward to engaging further with the parties to support them in implementing their commitments with regard to the banking sector and Yemenia Airways,” he said. “The aim remains a unified currency, a unified and independent central bank, and a banking sector free of political interference.”

Nonetheless, while Grundberg welcomed the willingness of both sides to engage on economic issues, he said, “I reiterate my warning to the council that we risk a return to full-scale war and all the predictable human suffering and regional implications that entails.”

Grundberg told reporters the four points are similar to commitments the two sides made in September to engage in dialogue.

He said he told the council in closed consultations after the meeting that “we have been here before and that previous opportunities have slipped in the past because they never translated into structured dialogue on underlying issues.”

The U.N. special envoy said he will provide all the support the rivals need to implement the measures they agreed to, and expects them to translate their commitments to de-escalation into action.

These include the need for monetary policy coordination, progress toward a unified central bank and currency, and guarantees to ensure the central bank’s independence from political interference, he said.

“Stopgap measures could serve as band-aids but being serious about building an economy that benefits all Yemenis means that the parties have also to engage on underlying longer-term issues,” Grundberg said.

Yemen is the Arab world’s poorest country and faces one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

Acting U.N. humanitarian chief Joyce Msuya told the council that Yemen’s GDP has shrunk by more than half since the conflict began, and a recent World Bank analysis found it contracted even further in the last year.

The fall in the value of the riyal has driven already sky-high food prices further out of reach for millions of people, she said.

“I urge the parties to seize this opportunity to find sustainable solutions to these challenges,” Msuya said. “Millions of people across the country depend on it.

Both Msuya and Grundberg called for the Houthis to immediately release 13 U.N. staffers and dozens of personnel from international and national organizations, civil society and the private sector detained for the past seven weeks. None of them have been heard from, they said.

Msuya said the detentions “have caused widespread fear and anxiety among humanitarian workers” and without guarantees for their safety and security, “we cannot operate at the scale required.”

She also appealed to donors, saying low funding has meant that an average of just 2.9 million people received food assistance every month of the 12.9 million targeted – and many of those getting aid “are having to make do with reduced rations, around 40% of what they need.”

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Jade Lozada contributed to this report from the United Nations