Majority of Democrats think Kamala Harris would make a good president, AP-NORC poll shows

WASHINGTON -- As President Joe Biden faces a growing drumbeat of pressure to drop his reelection bid, a majority of Democrats think his vice president would make a good president herself.

A new poll from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that about 6 in 10 Democrats believe Kamala Harris would do a good job in the top slot. About 2 in 10 Democrats don’t believe she would, and another 2 in 10 say they don’t know enough to say.

Since Biden’s debate debacle on June 27, many Democrats have privately and even openly looked to Harris to step in and succeed Biden as the party’s presidential nominee, believing she has a better chance against GOP nominee Donald Trump. For her part, Harris has remained completely loyal to Biden, being one of his toughest defenders in the aftermath of the disastrous debate performance.

Oakley Graham, a Democrat in Greenwood, Missouri, said while he is “pretty happy” with Biden’s accomplishments in office, he felt that he would be more excited to support Harris at the top of the ticket and that it was “about time” a woman becomes president.

“I know he’s got unfinished business,” Graham, 30, said of Biden. “But it would be nice to see a person of color, a woman, somebody younger to step up and to lead that charge. I would hope that that would inspire a younger generation to be more engaged.”

Black adults –- a key contingent of the Democrats’ coalition and a group that remains relatively more favorable to Biden than others — are more likely than Americans overall to say that Harris would do well.

As for Americans more broadly, they are more skeptical of how Harris would perform in the Oval Office. Only about 3 in 10 U.S. adults overall say Harris would do well as president. About half say Harris would not do a good job in the role, and 2 in 10 say they don’t know enough to say.

Harris’ favorability rating is similar to Biden’s, but the share of Americans who have an unfavorable opinion of her is somewhat lower. The poll showed that about 4 in 10 U.S. adults have a favorable opinion of Harris, while about half have an unfavorable opinion. There are more Americans with a negative view of Biden: approximately 6 in 10. About 1 in 10 Americans say they don’t know enough to have an opinion of Harris, whereas nearly everyone has an opinion on Biden.

About three-quarters of Democrats have a positive view of Harris, which is in line with how Democrats view Biden. Seven in 10 have a favorable view of him.

Shannon Bailey, a Democrat who lives in Tampa, praised Biden’s accomplishments as president –- particularly with his infrastructure law and efforts to tame inflation --- and said he’ll be “remembered fondly.” But she had a more favorable view of Harris than she does the incumbent president because, in Bailey’s view, the vice president appears more “capable of handling the taxing nature of the job.”

“It’s not just the physical stamina part, but also the cognitive reasoning part right now,” said Bailey, 34. “It’s important to be able to concisely and persuasively get the message across that is the Democratic platform right now.”

Bailey said the Democratic Party needs Harris and a running mate “who can really motivate people to go out to the polls” — a task that she’s skeptical Biden can do as effectively.

Harris’s position as the administration’s lead messenger on abortion also has endeared her to many Democrats.

“I think she would be a very strong advocate for abortion, has been and would continue to be,” said Thomas Mattman, a Democrat from Chico, California. “The Republicans have gone with white men as their ticket, and both of them have said some pretty specific things about being opposed to abortion so I think that would be a very strong argument.”

Mattman, 59, said he believes Biden will not be able to defeat Republican nominee Donald Trump — a prospect that leaves Mattman “very distraught.” Harris would be a much more effective candidate because Biden is unable to “put pressure” on his opponent and exploit his weaknesses, Mattman said.

Harris is more popular among Black Americans than she is among white or Hispanic adults. She is more disliked by men than she is by women.

Other prominent Democrats who have been floated as potential replacements are less known than Harris is. About 4 in 10 U.S. adults don’t have an opinion of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, and half are unfamiliar with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Newsom is seen, overall, slightly more negatively than positively. Americans are divided about evenly on Whitmer: 24% have a favorable view and 22% have an unfavorable view.

More Democrats see Harris rather than Newsom or Whitmer as someone who would make a good president, though that's partly because they're relative unknowns. About one-third of Democrats say Newsom would make a good president, and half don’t know enough to say. About one-quarter of Democrats say Whitmer would do well, and about two-thirds don’t know enough to say.

Trump’s running mate, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, is unknown to most Americans. In the AP-NORC poll, which was conducted before Trump made Vance his vice presidential choice, 6 in 10 Americans don’t know enough about him to form an opinion. About 2 in 10 U.S. adults have a favorable view of Vance, and about 2 in 10 view him negatively. Among Republicans, 61% don’t know enough to have an opinion of Vance. About one-quarter have a positive view of him, and roughly 1 in 10 have a negative view.

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The poll of 1,253 adults was conducted July 11-15, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.