Stimulus plan's job numbers get 2nd look

WASHINGTON -- Looking for a job or fear losing your own? President Obama says he can help 3 million to 4 million of you.

That could be optimistic, however. The Congressional Budget Office says Obama's economic stimulus package of spending programs and tax cuts would create 1.2 million to 3.6 million jobs. The economic consulting firm IHS Global Insight puts the number at 2.6 million.

Most of the jobs would only replace those lost to the recession. Even with the stimulus package, the administration estimates that unemployment would be 7% at the end of 2010 — barely below the current 7.2% rate.

As the Senate began debate on the package Monday, much of the focus turned to jobs: How many there would be, how quickly they could be created, how much they would pay and with what benefits, and who would get them.

"The bottom line is this: You've got a piece of legislation that creates jobs," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said after several questions. "The latest statistics based on the economic reports show that 90% of these jobs are private-sector jobs."

Republicans in Congress have criticized elements of the emerging package for not creating enough jobs. House Minority Leader John Boehner and others cite investments that do not immediately create jobs, such as an increase in the size of Pell grants for low-income college students.

Others say investing in education would be an indirect benefit by helping students compete for better jobs in the future. Indirect benefits will be "fairly widely dispersed through the economy … so all kinds of jobs will be created," says Chad Stone, chief economist for the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

As an example of jobs that could be saved, Gibbs cited 27 police recruits in Columbus, Ohio, who were laid off last week before graduating from the police academy.

The quickest infusion of money into the economy under the two-year, $819 billion House bill or $885 billion Senate version would come from aid to states, help for the unemployed, and tax cuts for consumers and businesses. Those produce jobs indirectly.