Post-Fidel Castro Era Begins

Dec. 13, 2006 — -- The absence of Fidel Castro at his own 80th birthday celebration and the 50th anniversary of the Cuban Revolution on Dec. 2 in Havana clearly marked the beginning of the post-Fidel Castro era in Cuba and the commencement of a new period under Raul Castro.

The main questions that remain unanswered are how effective Raul Castro will be and for how long he will be able to maintain "continuity" in the leadership structure.

Fidel's strengths have been his charismatic leadership and ability to keep 11.4 million people complacent and believing in his failed revolution. In reality, Fidel has run the nation based on Fidelismo -- his own personal charisma and enrichment. Forbes recently estimated the dictator's net worth to be nearly $1 billion.

Raul, on the other hand, has been an ardent communist since his teens and lacks the charisma of his brother. Raul, however, has been very effective in leading the most important institution in Cuba -- the military. The military now controls more than 60 percent of the economy. It is in the military leadership's interest to maintain a Raul Castro government for its own financial benefit.

Raul Castro is unlikely to introduce political reforms once Fidel is gone, but will need to make minimal economic reforms to placate the Cuban people and buy himself time to solidify power. Reforms will likely look similar to a Chinese model: controlled political ideology with a degree of economic reform.

Raul has been increasingly interested in this model since a late-1990s visit to China. Reforms may include improving accessibility of food, housing conditions, health care provision, the quality of education, and finally putting the Cuban people to work repairing the nation's dated infrastructure.

Raul may also allow Cubans to operate small enterprises in order to generate currency and to pacify the masses. Furthermore, the dissident movement on the island remains too small, poorly funded and poorly organized to present any alternative to a Raul Castro succession government.

Andy Gomez is the assistant provost and a senior fellow at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami.