Kurdish Commander Says Battle for Mosul Will Take at Least 2 Months

— -- A Kurdish military commander overseeing forces in Iraq, peshmerga Brig. Gen. Sirwan Barzani, said it could take two weeks for advancing troops to reach Mosul and two more months to liberate the city from ISIS. He cautioned that bad weather could prolong the battle even further by hampering coalition airstrikes and aerial reconnaissance.

The Iraqi army estimates there are 5,000 to 6,000 ISIS troops still defending Mosul, with the possibility of a bloody street-to-street battle and numerous booby traps and IEDs to contend with.

The Popular Mobilization Force, a coalition of mostly Iranian-trained Shiite militias, said it would support the Iraqi army's offensive on Mosul, raising the risk of sectarian strife in the mainly Sunni region. The PMF said Tuesday it would back Iraqi government forces advancing toward Tal Afar, about 35 miles west of Mosul — which would effectively cut off the escape route for ISIS fighters heading to Syria but could hamper the escape of civilians.

As Day Three of the battle got underway, combined Iraqi and peshmerga forces continue to make their way east across the Nineveh Plain, advancing slowly, village by village toward the northern side of Mosul.

To the south, regular Iraqi army troops and Shiite militias also advanced steadily but slowly, hampered by numerous roadside bombs, booby traps, car bomb attacks and other IEDs. They have encountered stiff resistance by ISIS fighters in certain places as they concentrate on the Hamdaniyah district to the southeast of Mosul.

According to the citizen journalist group Sound and Picture, ISIS hung 20 severed heads at the Mosul gate in a gesture Sound and Picture described as “blood propaganda,” or a warning for soldiers and citizens not to enter or leave the city.

The blog Mosul Eye, which reports on troop deployments in the city, said that ISIS suddenly redeployed its forces throughout Mosul, specifically bolstering the western bank of the Tigris River.

Some 900 people have recently fled Mosul and crossed the border into Syria, said the UNHCR, the U.N. refugee agency. This is the first large group of civilians confirmed to have escaped since the Iraqi government began its offensive to liberate Mosul on Monday. Up to 1.5 million people are thought to be in Mosul, and there are fears that ISIS will use the civilians as human shields during fighting.

Meanwhile, the aid group Save the Children said thousands of Iraqis are fleeing to Syria in order to escape the fighting around the city. The group said Wednesday that 5,000 people have arrived at al-Hol camp in northeastern Syria from the Mosul area in the last 10 days, with 1,000 more waiting to enter at the border.

The group said the camp was ill equipped to receive the refugees, saying it is "littered with waste and feces, with a looming risk of outbreaks of disease." It said there are just 16 latrines shared by more than 9,000 people, many of whom have access only to dirty, untreated water. Tarik Kadir, the head of Save the Children's response to the Mosul crisis, said, "Conditions there are among the worst we've seen, and we expect thousands more people to be on their way soon."

The outcome of the battle is expected to be felt beyond the region as well. Europe is bracing for a wave of returning jihadists if ISIS is driven out of its Iraqi stronghold. EU Security Commissioner Julian King said even a few militants would pose "a serious threat that we must prepare ourselves for."