Shanghai Disney Resort a $5B Bet That It's a Small World After All

— -- Shanghai Disney Resort, the Walt Disney Co.'s latest theme park venture since 2005, will officially open its doors to a maddening crowd Thursday.

Opening-day tickets for the Shangai resort, Disney's first park in mainland China, sold out within hours of going on sale in March and Disney's two onsite hotels are booked at full capacity for the first two weeks of the park's opening.

There is a lot at stake for Disney: Can the park pull in the visitors it needs every day, week after week, to justify the $5.5 billion investment? The resort is a joint venture between Disney (43 percent ownership stake) and Shanghai Shendi Group, a state-owned holding company that owns the rest.

Significant demand and excitement can be expected in the beginning but there are two basic concerns surrounding the resort’s opening: a slowing Chinese economy and escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing over the Communist Party's bellicose stance toward ownership of the disputed islands of the South China Sea. The United States recently sent military ships to the region as a warning to China to end its claim to the islands, adding friction to an already volatile and sensitive situation.

Such factors may be enough to persuade some of the country’s 1.2 billion people to stay home, according to one expert.

"There is certainly a political risk" for Disney, the largest theme park operator in the world, said Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. "China is at war over the China South Sea. Disney is an American company -- the worst case is there is a boycott of the park. In the past the Chinese have boycotted cars and goods made in Japan."

Lardy is referring to the strained relations and territorial row between the two Asian juggernauts over a group of islands known as the Senkaku islands in Japan and the Diaoyu islands in China.

That said, Lardy pointed out that the Chinese middle class is spending hugely on U.S. movies as well as general tourism, sporting events and entertainment. Shanghai Disney will offer two categories of tickets: regular and peak pricing. Regular tickets cost 370 yuan (about $56 at current exchange rates) and peak tickets cost 499 yuan (about $76).

Lardy explained that the country's traditional attitude toward saving and spending has changed as more Chinese see their incomes rise.

"Disposable income is growing more rapidly than GDP," he noted. "There is a relatively high labor participation rate in China and wage growth has grown more than 10 percent for a decade and will likely remain strong. The Chinese are well fed and well clothed."

The boom in spending has in turn fueled new leisure and entertainment construction projects in China. The increase in spending on education and tourism in China has led to "projects getting approved and financed ... developers are supporting the service industry ... and the amount of themed entertainment product keeps growing,” according to the Themed Entertainment Association (TEA), a trade group that analyzes trends and attendance at theme parks around the world.

There are 11 parks, excluding the Shanghai Disney Resort, in China and attendance for the top 20 amusement-theme parks in the Asia-Pacific region -- which also includes Japan and South Korea -- jumped nearly 7 percent between 2014 and 2015, according to TEA.

Shanghai Disney Resort could be a "watershed" for the communist nation, according to TEA: "The Asian market really likes the Disney product" and Shanghai Disney "is expected to do very well and have a positive effect on the region."

But success will also likely embolden competitors who are already eager to chip away at Disney’s stronghold. Universal Beijing is under construction and other international brand IPs are looking actively in China, TEA noted in a recent industry report.

In a note to clients, Alexia Quadrani, a stock analyst who follows Disney for J.P. Morgan, said she does not anticipate Shanghai Disney to be profitable this year but is bullish on the park's long-term prospects.

"The brand value and synergies provide substantial value to Disney in the key China market," she wrote. "Over time we expect the park to become a greater contributor and driver of international growth, potentially opening up the possibility of greater expansion in both Shanghai as well as additional parks in other areas of China."

Quadrani said the park may also succeed for its strong inclusion of Chinese culture and heritage. Three examples include the park's "A Garden of 12 Friends," which represent Chinese architectural elements as well as the Chinese Zodiac; Disney's popular "Soarin'" ride will feature the Shanghai skyline and the Great Wall; and the slippers, teakettles and Chinese board games offered at the Shanghai Disney hotels.

"Disney executives describe the resort as 'distinctly Chinese' which we believe is important in order to draw local visitors," according to Quadrani's note. Moreover, "Disney has increased its brand-building efforts in China to make Chinese consumers more familiar with Disney properties."

The resort will certainly appeal to Disney fans across the globe but the target audience is locals. Disney management has previously noted that there are 330 million potential customers within a three-hour travel radius of the Shanghai resort.

Joseph Foudy, who teaches several courses on Asia and Asian economies at NYU's Stern School of Business, said the resort will likely experience "teething problems" in the beginning, such as crowd management and other operational glitches, but he predicts the park will be a resounding success.

Shanghai, China's wealthiest and most populous city, boasts good weather and is easily accessible by high-speed rail from all parts of the country.

"This is a premium resort and a destination," he told ABC News. "There is an enormous attraction for Western brands and attractions. The Chinese are very brand sensitive and Disney is a global brand."

ABC News is owned by Disney.