Danger Ahead: Taliban Leaves Opium Business

March 1 -- Pakistan's Foreign Secretary Inam-ul Haq's claim to have eliminated all opium plantations in Taliban controlled territories — reported by Agence France-Presse — seems to have been confirmed by a U.N. survey.

This development could have several important ramifications for both the geopolitical situation in the region and the world drug trade.

Opium trade has played a significant role in propping up Afghanistan's economy. Last year most of the country's nearly 3,300-ton opium harvest was produced in Taliban-controlled areas.

But recently Taliban leaders began implementing a strict version of Islam, including a ban on drugs. Leaders then issued a decree banning the poppy crop.

For More Foreign Investment

Ultimately, the Taliban issued the decree to satisfy the intolerant governments of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other big foreign investors. Both persecute drug traders severely. Both are Islam nations. Each has a history of heavy financial support for the Taliban.

The Taliban is looking for even more foreign investment. And that can't happen until U.N. sanctions are lifted. Cracking down on opium production may persuade the United Nations and the international community to review their policies toward the regime, easing the country's economic crisis.

The opium ban will likely increase the Taliban's dependence on Pakistan. But Pakistan will not respond with money or arms; it simply has neither to spare.

Likely, it will use its increasing leverage in Afghanistan to push the Taliban toward halting its offensive in the north and entering a peace dialogue with the opposition Northern Alliance.

Trouble Shifts to the Golden Triangle

The end of opium cultivation in the Taliban-controlled areas also will have an impact on the world drug trade.

The center of world drug production will shift from Afghanistan, which accounted for 75 percent of the world opium production last year, to Colombia and the Golden Triangle area on the border between Myanmar and Thailand.

The loss of vast poppy plantations for international drug syndicates will intensify the struggle for control over drug export routes and production. The opium harvest in Afghanistan has already fallen significantly.

That's likely to increase world heroin prices. It also will mean increased violence and probable border conflicts in the countries where opium and heroin are still being produced and exported.

International drug cartels saw an opportunity in the Taliban ban and increased opium cultivation and heroin production in the Golden Triangle. The increase seems to be a major factor in recent clashes between Myanmar and Thailand.

Seeing the opportunity to more thickly line their pockets, corrupt officials on both sides of the border have intensified their fierce competition for access to the drug barons and ethnic insurgent groups associated with them.