2006 Poll: Strife Erodes Afghan Optimism

Dec. 7, 2006 — -- Five years after the fall of the Taliban, public optimism has declined sharply across Afghanistan, pushed by a host of fresh difficulties: Worsening security, rising concerns about a resurgent Taliban, troubled development efforts, widespread perceptions of corruption and reduced faith in the government's effectiveness in facing these challenges.

The U.S.-led invasion remains highly popular, the Taliban intensely unpopular, and the current Afghan government retains broad support. Yet this extensive ABC News/BBC World Service survey makes clear the country's profound problems, including renewed Taliban activities five years after the fall of their last redoubt, Kandahar, on Dec. 7, 2001:

Views on the drug front also are not promising. Signaling frustration with the slow pace of development, there's been a jump in the acceptance of growing opium poppies, the country's illicit cash crop. Nationally, 40 percent now call it acceptable if there's no other way to earn a living, up sharply from 26 percent last year. And in the top-producing opium provinces, more -- a 59 percent majority -- endorse poppy cultivation.

Despite eradication efforts, Afghanistan is the world's top opium poppy producer -- and nearly three-quarters of Afghans suspect the Taliban is protecting the trade.

Compared to a year ago, this poll finds deterioration in a range of public perceptions about the country's condition: a 22-point drop in views that it's headed in the right direction, a 17-point drop in the belief security has improved since the Taliban was in control and a 13-point drop in personal optimism for the year ahead. Trust in parliament is down 18 points while approval of Afghan President Hamid Karzai is down 15 points.

Some of these ratings, to be fair, have fallen from probably unsustainable levels. Sixty-eight percent approve of Karzai's work -- down from 83 percent last year, but still a level most national leaders would envy. Fifty-nine percent think the parliament is working for the benefit of the Afghan people, down from 77 percent but still far better than American approval ratings of the U.S. Congress.

Others are lower: Positive ratings of the performance of the United States in Afghanistan are down by 11 points, to 57 percent. Provincial governments are rated positively by 52 percent.

Perhaps most troubling in terms of governance: 78 percent of Afghans call official corruption a problem in the area where they live -- and 55 percent call it a big problem. One in four report that they or someone they know has had to pay a bribe to receive proper service from the government -- and that jumps to four in 10 in the country's northwest, where corruption is particularly severe.

There are, however, positives. Most Afghans say the government and local police alike have a strong presence in their area. Few say so of the Taliban -- and trust the current authorities, at least somewhat, to provide security. Again, likely reflecting the Taliban's broad unpopularity, big majorities continue to call the U.S.-led invasion a good thing for their country (88 percent), to express a favorable opinion of the United States (74 percent) and to prefer the current Afghan government to Taliban rule (88 percent).

Indeed eight in 10 Afghans support the presence of U.S., British and other international forces on their soil; that compares with 5 percent support for Taliban fighters and 11 percent for jihadi fighters from other countries. In the south, however, just three in 10 say international forces have a strong presence. And while just a quarter overall say U.S. forces should leave within a year, that is up from 14 percent a year ago.

Fifty-five percent of Afghans still say the country's going in the right direction, but that number is down sharply from 77 percent last year. Fifty-four percent remain optimistic rather than pessimistic about their future, but that's down from 67 percent. Hopes for a better future can provide an important element of social stability; a decline is cause for concern.

In one sense, optimism at all is remarkable in Afghanistan, given the security problems and deep poverty. (Barely two in 10 Afghans, for example, live in homes that receive electricity from power lines.) But, again, views of today's conditions are balanced by recollections of the repressive Taliban regime. Whatever the current problems, 74 percent say their living conditions today are better now than they were under the Taliban.

That rating, however, is 11 points lower now than it was a year ago.While 58 percent say security, in particular, is better than it was under the Taliban, that's down from 75 percent a year ago. And fewer than half -- 43 percent, about the same as last year -- say the availability of jobs and economic opportunity has improved.