THE NOTE: Rudy Rises

October 16, 2007 — -- While the political world has waited for the inevitable collapse of Rudolph Giuliani, something interesting has happened: He looks stronger, not weaker, than he did a few months ago.

In addition to being the national poll leader, the former mayor of New York City is surging in New Hampshire, which has never been crucial to his Feb. 5 strategy but is vital to at least two of his opponents. He's now the GOP fund-raising leader, too, despite getting a bit of a late start behind former governor Mitt Romney, R-Mass. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., looks stronger than ever -- http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2007-10-15-poll.htm?loc=interstitialskip good news for a GOP candidate who's running on electability.

Perhaps most significantly, nothing major -- not Romney's attacks, not social conservatives' threats to bolt the party, not recurring questions about his abortion position -- has stopped Giuliani, R-N.Y., from controlling the GOP race. He's even doing another TV interview with his wife tonight -- talking about his family on his terms, not his rivals'.

Yes, he's spending more than he's bringing in, but he's got $16.6 million in reserve -- and he hasn't spent a dime on TV ads yet. The latest campaign-finance numbers show that Giuliani is putting in place a strategy that would allow him to fall short in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, yet still compete for the nomination.

"Giuliani invested thousands of dollars opening campaign offices in places such as Fargo, N.D., and Columbia, Mo.," write Matthew Mosk and Sarah Cohen of The Washington Post. "Giuliani's decision to spend there, as well as in Florida, New Jersey, and Illinois -- all states that will be part of a Feb. 5 mega-primary -- signals that he alone among the Republicans is laying the groundwork for a national primary strategy, campaign strategists said."

Look around the rest of the field for contrast. Romney suddenly looks vulnerable in New Hampshire (if somewhat less so in Iowa), and the lawyers comment at the debate and his Paul Wellstone/Howard Dean remark about the "Republican wing of the Republican Party" made him a target for his rivals.

His campaign would be flat broke if he weren't worth a couple hundred million (a big if, we know, but still . . . ). "Mitt Romney has spent nearly twice as much this year as Rudy Giuliani in the Republican presidential race, but remains locked in tight battles in Iowa and New Hampshire, and has less cash available than his rival as they enter the crucial stretch before balloting begins in January," The Boston Globe's Michael Levenson writes. He's already run nearly 11,000 ads, and has just $9.2 million in the bank after giving his campaign $17.4 million and counting.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., is scrambling to stay relevant (and his baseball metaphor looks worse in the wake of the Colorado Rockies' sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks last night).

Even after righting his fiscal ship by dumping staff and restructuring over the summer, he still spent 95 percent of the money he brought in last quarter, ABC's Bret Hovell reports. He has a measly $3.5 million cash on hand -- and is still carrying $1.7 million in debt.

And former senator Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., teased the GOP all summer but has yet to control the stage. One attempt came yesterday, when Thompson traveled to Giuliani's backyard to proclaim, "I believe that conservatives beat liberals only when we challenge their outdated positions, not embrace them. Per the New York Sun's Benjamin Sarlin, "was a clear but unnamed reference to Mr. Giuliani, whose moderate stance on social issues, such as abortion, has helped him argue that he is the most electable Republican candidate."

"He was more direct in a television interview with Fox News Channel," AP's Liz Sidoti reports. Said Thompson: "I don't think that the mayor has ever claimed to be a conservative." He added that Giuliani sought and won the Liberal Party's endorsement in his first mayoral race, and that while in office he backed then-governor Mario Cuomo, D-N.Y., for re-election.

McCain spent another day locked in a war of words with Romney, with surrogates arguing "over who is the more pure Republican," John DiStaso writes in the Union Leader.

All the attacks among the GOPers could wind up benefiting Giuliani, as the two candidates who need New Hampshire the most -- Romney and McCain -- batter each other, Washingtonpost.com's Chris Cillizza writes. He compares the fight to the combat between Dick Gephardt, D-Mo., and Howard Dean, D-Vt., in 2004, which "amounted to mutually assured destruction for both men," Cillizza writes. "Romney must find a way to avoid a similar fate," he writes. "He needs to answer McCain without turning this into an ugly brawl that will only accrue to Giuliani's benefit in the long run."

This is a big week for all of the Republicans, with much of the field addressing the Republican Jewish Coalition today, the Club for Growth tomorrow, and the Values Voters Summit on Friday and Saturday in Washington.

For Romney, the Values Voters Summit comes at a critical time, as his campaign reaches out to evangelical Christians, Michael Luo writes for The New York Times' front page. "He faces a delicate task in trying to stake out common ground with conservative Christians, while not running afoul of deeply rooted evangelical sensitivities about any blurring of distinctions between Mormonism and conventional Protestantism," Luo reports. "His advisers are still undecided about whether Mr. Romney will directly address concerns about his religion in his 20-minute address and, if so, how much to dwell on it relative to his stances on particular social issues."

A top official at Bob Jones University, Dean Robert R. Taylor, is endorsing Romney, despite the school's "history of anti-Mormon rhetoric," Michael M. Phillips reports for The Wall Street Journal.

But with his "Republican wing" line, "Romney handed rivals Rudy Giuliani and John McCain the opportunity to remind GOP primary voters about the Old Romney, who was pro-abortion rights and courted gay voters when he ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate, then successfully for governor of Massachusetts," Debra Saunders writes for Real Clear Politics.