ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News

W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 22, 2004&#151;<br> -- NOTED NOW

TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET)

FUTURES CALENDAR

Morning Show Wrap

Evening Newscasts Wrap

41 days until Election Day8 days until the first presidential debate13 days until the vice presidential debate16 days until the second presidential debate21 days until the third presidential debate

NEWS SUMMARY

It was the food critic Frank Bruni who wrote in the New York Times of October 16, 2000:

"With little more than three weeks until Election Day, Mr. Bush and his aides are exuding a mood as helium-buoyant as at any other point in the 16 months of his campaign. They feel that he aced last week's debate and turned the tide of polls decidedly in his favor, and they seem to be operating in a zone of comfort and joy, or at least are successfully projecting that image."

A comparable period of comfort and joy for the Bush-Cheney re-elect has been pierced by most meta-accounts in the last 48 hours, as John Kerry seems to have had a measure of success making the race more about the incumbent's record than about the challenger's wobbly past statements and actions.

There's the fact that Kerry has had two good days in a row of media coverage of all stripes.

There's the fact that Team Kerry has taken on its own helium-buoyancy with the advent of the fabled and long-sought "negative frame" against the president (on Iraq).

There's this stunning passage in New York Times ' political muckraker David Sanger's piece that doesn't seem to mention North Korea: LINK

"The (Bush) campaign leadership was shaken by recent assertions by three senior Republican senators — Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and Richard Lugar of Indiana and John McCain of Arizona — suggesting that the United States is facing deep trouble in Iraq, and that the White House may be in denial about the need for a new approach."

"'They are clearly worried that this could take a nasty turn,' said one senior Republican strategist who joined a conference call on Monday about how to respond to Mr. Kerry's counterattacks. 'The headlines are getting to them."

There's the fact that two of America's leading news organizations (who poll together) are about to release some horserace numbers that are going to suggest a tight race and tease out the "Kerry closes the gap with momentum" storyline for which the press hungers. (As Joe Lockhart would say, EVERYONE in Washington knows about these poll numbers … ..)

There's the fact that Bush supporters seem this week to be a bit more frustrated at the way the race is being covered than they were when things were jake.

There's the fact that the violence and chaos in Iraq continues.

And there's the fact that Mike McCurry is shaming the press corps into siding more often with its "this election should be about big issues" good angels than with its "this election should be about Vietnam" bad angels.

Hoping to end his news cycle losing streak, President Bush meets with the president of Pakistan at 7:45 am, pre-tapes Bill O'Reilly's show, holds an education event in Pennsylvania at 11:35 am before surveying storm damage from the air at 3:25 pm and receiving a briefing on the recovery at 3:55 pm.

In addition, to get back on their game, the campaign is going to its bread and butter — "humorously" "teasing" John Kerry by mocking him personally and attacking his consistency — with a new ad, reports ABC News' Karen Travers.

The spot is called "Windsurfing."

The ad, which will join the BC04 ad rotation on national cable and local markets in battleground states, looks at John Kerry's record on a variety of issues and concludes with this zinger:

"John Kerry … whichever way the wind blows."

Senator Kerry's late August windsurfing excursion has given the Vice President and Mrs Cheney a new favorite joke on the campaign trail.

The two banter like Nick and Jessica on their variety show, with the Vice President joking that Lynne thinks John Kerry should stick to windsurfing instead of policy.

At a 1:30 pm town hall meeting in Palm Beach, FL, Senator John Kerry will jump on a University of Chicago study which suggests President Bush's plans to reform Social Security would hand financial services firms a windfall totaling $940 billion over 75 years, according to the Washington Post . LINK

Bush, who has proposed letting workers divert some of their payroll tax contribution into a personal retirement account, has been criticized for not proposing a way to pay for the transition to a partially privatized system, or for acknowledging that the point of such a system is to take pressure off of the trust fund by lowering the guaranteed minimum benefit.

Kerry has occasionally alluded to supporting means testing Social Security benefits for the richest Americans. But other than saying he wants to improve the country's overall budget outlook, he has not yet proposed a comprehensive plan for shoring up the Social Security system in time for the retirement of the baby boomers.

Wednesday's edition of NPR's "All Things Considered" will air a Kerry interview that it pre-taped on Tuesday.

The president's father, George H.W. Bush, campaigns for his son in Columbus, Ohio at 12 pm.

Senator John Edwards campaigns in Miami, FL at 11:35 am. Edwards, who was born in South Carolina and won the state's presidential primary this year, holds a "welcome back" event in Columbia, SC at 6:15 pm and a DNC fundraiser at 7:10 pm.

Vice President Cheney is in Washington, DC with no public events.

At 10:15 am, House Democratic leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi and the House Democratic Caucus hold a news conference to announce their New Partnership for America-six core values that House Democrats are running on. LINKHouse Speaker Rep. Dennis Hastert and the GOP House leadership counter with a news conference to discuss accomplishments of the past decade and the vision for the next decade at 11 a.m.

"Republican leaders agreed yesterday to extend three middle-class tax cuts for five years, clearing the way for Senate and House votes as early as this week on the fourth tax-cut package in as many years," the Washington Post reports. LINK

At 1:45 pm, Reps. Marty Meehan (D), Christopher Shays (R), and Sens. John McCain (R) and Russ Feingold (D) will unveil legislation to require the Federal Election Commission to treat groups organized under section 527 of the tax code as bonafide political committees subject to expenditure and contribution limits.

The bills, according to an aide to one of its authors, will "automatically designate all 527s as political committees whose 'major purpose' is influencing federal election unless those groups meet new exemptions, such as for groups engaged solely in non-federal election activity." See: LINK

The debates:

The Commission on Presidential Debates has dug in its heels and told the Bush and Kerry campaigns that it would not play along with their request that it sign off on their deal by today, the New York Times ' versatile Jodi Wilgoren reports. LINK"First of all, the commission said, it has to determine which candidates have enough support in the polls to qualify for the debates, which it does not plan to do until Friday. Regardless of the timing, the new requirement that the independent commission as well as the four journalists selected to moderate the debates sign onto the pact between the two candidates has made some people involved in the process uncomfortable."

We still think the deal will hold, but — to re-quote James Addison Baker 3d — nothing is decided until everything is decided.

The Christian Science Monitor's Liz Marlantes writes that the debates give both sides a chance to engage one another directly on character — and casts a wary eye on the press' propensity for loving one-liners. LINKThe Washington Times ' Ralph Z. Hallow details his version of who got what and why during the debate negotiations. LINKWashington University in St. Louis has still not received confirmation from the Commission on Presidential Debates that the university's event is a go, reports Jonathan Greenberger of "Student Life." LINKAmerica's Charities is participating in the commission's DebateWatch program, encouraging group viewings of the events. LINK

ABC, CBS, and NBC will broadcast all three debates and the vice presidential debate, reports the Boston Herald's Greg Gatlin. Fox will bag on the Oct. 13 event at Arizona State University and the vice presidential debate to honor its contract with Major League Baseball to broadcast the playoffs. Fox News Channel, however, will carry all of them. LINK

The New York Daily News reports observant Jews don't like the schedule for the televised debates between Bush and Kerry. The first debate coincides with the Jewish harvest holiday of Succoth. The second falls on the eve of the Sabbath. LINKThe Miami Herald 's David Ovalle reports that "as the school prepares for the media wave, parking crunch and mind-boggling security, many agree that the debate's coming presence on campus has spawned an increase — if just a fleeting one — of interest in politics." LINK

Arizona State University is taking full advantage of the presidential debate coming to town. Check out the surrounding events: LINK

Todd Richmond of the AP reports that Senator Kerry will hole up in southwestern Wisconsin for four days of debate prep next week. LINKIf you are a student at the University of Miami we wanted to let you know that the application period for student seats has closed. The University of Miami has announced that "nearly 690 students enrolled for the fall 2004 semester completed a Student Seat Application Form and submitted an essay on the topic Democracy in Action: Make Your Vote Count. Students who make it to the second round of the process will be notified on Friday, September 24."

Also, though The Note cannot condone skipping class, we do think if you can squeeze in this 3:00 pm event, you should definitely do so. From the University of Miami press release: "Elise K. Kirk presents the musical interests of various presidents and their families, from George Washington to the present, and the performers who have entertained them in the White House. Dr. Kirk is a member of the Board of Directors of the White House Historical Association and served on the planning committee for the bicentennial of the White House in 1992." Details can be found here: LINKAnd remember the WWE Smackdown Your Vote debate on September 29 hosted by Jake Tapper!

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect: the Iraq speech:

The Washington Post 's Milbank and Lynch lead with the contrast between the Iraq scenario painted by Bush and by other leaders. LINKThe New York Times ' Weisman has Bush engaged in the "international equivalent of the politicking and record defending that he has done on the campaign trail since the Republican convention." LINK"After three consecutive years in which Iraq has dominated the opening of the General Assembly, the response from many delegates was tepid," write Maura Reynolds and Maggie Farley of the Los Angeles Times. LINK

USA Today on the "cool" response to Bush's UN speech. LINKThe Wall Street Journal has Bush "softening the tone" he used before the invasion of Iraq as he told the world body: it's your fight, too! LINK

In a news analysis, the Washington Post 's Glenn Kessler writes that "the gulf between the Bush administration and the rest of the world appeared as wide as ever" on Tuesday. Kessler describes Bush's vision as "lofty and idealistic" but appearing "incomplete to others" while Kerry is described as "more of a 'realist' in the mode of Henry Kissinger." LINKThe New York Times chides Bush for issuing a scolding to the UN at a time when the US needs international help. LINK