The Note

ByABC News
April 20, 2004, 10:27 AM

W A S H I N G T O N, April 20&#151;<br> -- TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET)

FUTURES CALENDAR

NEWS SUMMARY

Nothing annoys elite Republican supporters of President Bush's re-election more than the political media's disparate treatment of poll results favorable to their man versus those favorable to John Kerry.

In the view of BC04ers, polls suggesting progress for Kerry are allowed to frame coverage for days on end, while polls demonstrating incumbent superiority -- such as yesterday's ABC/Washington Post and Gallup numbers -- usually are barely allowed to pierce even the news cycle in which they first appear.

Unlike Bush-Quayle '92 and Dole-Kemp '96, the back-to-back presidential efforts of George Walker Bush follows two simple media rules: know the press is the enemy, and never let on to the press that you think of them that way.

But the BC04 campaign's strong sense that the press processes and evaluates the polls differently (and even favors flawed polls showing Kerry gaining over solid polls showing Bush thriving) tests the GOP's capacity to hold its collective tongue.

Anyone of even modest political sophistication viewed the President's improved horserace standing (and improved issues standing) in yesterday's two nearly identical polls as part of a simple narrative -- Bush's advertising and free media efforts have filled in a still-mostly-blank portrait of Kerry with lots of negative information (liberal, goofy, arrogant, out of touch flip flopper), overcoming the bad news out of Iraq.

We share the Bush concerns that polls should be covered prudently and equitably.

And there are lots of twists and turns that will occur in the "real world" between now and election day. Even some occurring as we speak, erh, type:

1. The Boston Globe's Mike Kranish and the RNC's Ed Gillespie are both spotlighting Sen. Kerry's refusal to match the POTUS release of Vietnam-era medical and military records. Kranish = must-read. LINK

Gillespie's speech in Ohio today to a GOP party meeting is expected to cleverly create a rhetorical link between the failure to fully disclose with the BC04 effort to make Kerry = Gore.

And Note how aggressive government official Dan Bartlett is on the record in the Globe story on the records release issue.

This morning, the Kerry campaign's Stephanie Cutter is contradicting the Globe headline about Kerry refusing to release more medical/military records. She says they will release "everything." They want have to have a doctor pore over them first, however -- "due diligence." Timing of the release is TBD.

2. Despite Powell's "good soldier" routine, addicts require post-Woodward polls to feel they know which way the wind is blowing.

3. The Kerry campaign's Earth Day gambit.

4. Dick Morris says Iraq is killing the President politically. LINK

5. Will the new Kerry fundraising ads in Blue States open a new stream of gushing Democratic money? (What is up with the Kerry on cameras in winter clothes!!!!????)

Let's briefly hear from four people who "get" the national environment in which all of this is percolating:

The Washington Post's Mike Allen: "Republican officials said that Bush plans to make the Patriot Act a central theme of his campaign to show his plan to combat terrorism and that he took specific action after the attacks. Bush has used the vote to portray Kerry as a waffler."

The Washington Post's E.J. Dionne: "The Bush campaign wants to re-create the dynamic of 2002 and render criticism of Bush's anti-terrorism policies illegitimate and unpatriotic. Kerry wants Bush held accountable for the decisions he made. The side that wins this definitional war is likely to win the election."

The Wall Street Journal's Jake Schlesinger and John Harwood: "(BC04 strategist Matthew) . . . Dowd pointed to two new polls released late yesterday, by CNN and ABC, that showed Mr. Bush's standing against the Massachusetts senator rising in recent weeks. Despite the steady stream of bad news out of Baghdad, Mr. Kerry slipped in the polls when voters were asked which candidate could best handle Iraq."

"'Kerry has not offered any acceptable and viable alternative to the public,' Mr. Dowd said, underscoring a central Bush campaign argument: that no matter how much negative reporting comes out about the incumbent, voters may still harbor greater doubts about the challenger."

But let's keep our eyes on the ball here. One in every eight people in these national polls is a Californian, and, in terms of anticipating results, we don't much care what they think. One in every 14 is a Texan, and, again, their views are meaningless to the outcome of this election.

What really matters are the views of people in 17 states. A day like yesterday -- with Bush in Pennsylvania and Kerry in Florida -- is going to be repeated many times between now and November -- with each man in a battleground state, fighting for hearts, minds and free media.

So let's see how they did, print-wise at least.

The President and Sen. Specter get center of the front page treatment in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and Philadelphia Inquirer this morning, below the resignation of the US Airways CEO, which was the top story in both cities.

Front page images:

LINK (and Note the "roadmap to the primaries" banner featuring a rather dour cartoon of the senior Senator from Pennsylvania) andLINK

The coverage in Pennsylvania, unlike the national political reporters, focused heavily on the Bush/Specter relationship and the heated primary battle that Specter is engaged in with Rep. Pat Toomey.

The Post-Gazette headline: "Specter gets a big boost from Bush visit, Senator hoping president's support helps thwart challenge from the right."

The Inquirer headline picks up the same theme: "Bush tells Pa. he wants Specter reelected, The conservative President's support could sway voters for the moderate senator."

The Post-Gazette also writes what seems to be the obligatory local story about protestors outside events featuring the President or Vice President. Outside the convention center in downtown Pittsburgh yesterday, several protestors were arrested for allegedly leaving a designated area on the sidewalk and trying to disrupt traffic. LINK

As for the challenger:

Miami Herald headline: "Kerry, Bush court Jewish vote as a key"

Tampa Tribune: "Kerry Backers Hope Fundraising Record Falls"

Orlando Sentinel: "Kerry conjures up memories of 2000: Campaigning in the Palm Beach area, the Democrat spoke of a 'stolen' election."

St. Petersburg Times: "Kerry seizes on oil allegation"

Palm Beach Post: "Kerry focuses on economy at local rally"

Sun-Sentinel: "Kerry pitches jobs, tax break plan to S. Florida"

Naples Daily News: "Election 2004: Kerry criticizes Bush over oil report"

The Tampa Tribune's William March reports Kerry supporters hope to raise close to $500,000 today at a fundraising lunch in Tampa. LINK

"The amount Kerry backers hope to raise today wouldn't be unusual for a Democrat in Miami or Palm Beach. Kerry raised $1 million at events Sunday night and Monday in West Palm Beach and Juno Beach.

"Nor would it be a large sum for a Republican in Tampa. President Bush and Gov. Jeb Bush have raised seven-figure sums in the area.

"For a Democrat, though, it's a big deal."

Mark Silva of the Orlando Sentinel writes that appearances by Sen. Kerry and Sen. Lieberman in Palm Beach county yesterday ignited feelings of resentment over the 2000 election. "The scars of 2000 are motivating Democrats this year in a closely divided state where the turnout of core supporters could determine whether Bush holds a state he won by only 537 votes." LINK

The Palm Beach Post writes the glitches that began Sen. Kerry's campaign rally -- such as his normal being late and his microphone not working -- did not dampen the enthusiasm of the crowd at yesterday's rally. LINK

President Bush participates in a conversation on the Patriot Act in Buffalo, N.Y. and attends a Victory 2004 reception at the River Club in New York City.

Sen. Kerry discusses clean water and its effect on the economy at event in Tampa, then attends a luncheon fundraiser. In the evening, he attends three more reception fundraisers in Miami Beach and Bal Harbor, Fla.

The Supreme Court hears arguments on the Guantanamo Bay detainees while the Senate considers the asbestos bill.

Polls:

Two big new polls out today find President Bush's approval rating holding steady, John Kerry's standing on the issues losing ground, and the country continuing to be almost evenly divided on the presidential race. The issues most important to Americans have also seen a bit of a shift.

The new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows President Bush maintaining his approval ratings, despite nearly six in 10 Americans saying the United States has gotten bogged down in Iraq, writes ABC Polling Director Gary Langer. It's a split country, Langer Notes, with Bush's overall approval rating at 51 percent to 47 percent -- roughly the same as February -- and the same margin split over whether the war in Iraq was worth fighting. The survey has a +/- 3 percent margin of error. LINK

Other highlights:

-- In a head-to-head matchup, Bush took 49 percent to Kerry's 48 percent. Add Nader into the equation, and the numbers read thusly: 48 percent for Bush, 43 percent for Kerry and 6 percent for Nader.

-- Bush's numbers have improved in relation to John Kerry in terms of public trust to handle the situation in Iraq; he's up 11 points, compared to the 1-point advantage Kerry had in March.

-- The economy now shares top billing with Iraq and terrorism as the most important issues to voters, as opposed to clearly topping the list in March. In addition, Bush and Kerry came in with equal scores in terms of public trust over how to handle the economy.

The Washington Post's Richard Morin and Dan Balz also take a look at the new ABC News/Washington Post poll, highlighting positive findings for President Bush, who holds "significant advantages" over Sen. Kerry regarding who can better handle Iraq and has reduced Kerry's previously held advantages on domestic issues. LINK