The Note

W A S H I N G T O N July 30&#151;<br> -- Today's Schedule (all times Eastern):

—9:00 am: Senate convenes for legislative business—10:20 am: Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has private meeting with Vice President Cheney, D.C.—10:30 am: President Bush holds press conference, White House—11:30 am: Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge addresses the American Legislative Exchange Council, D.C.—12:00 pm: Senator John Edwards addresses the 21st Century Democrats' Youth Leadership Summer Speaker Series, D.C.— 2:30 pm: Governor Howard Dean proposes job creation plan, Des Moines, Iowa—2:45 pm: President Bush makes remarks on the 38th anniversary of Medicare, White House—4:00 pm: Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld gives closed briefing on Iraq to senators, Capitol Hill—7:00 pm: Senator John Kerry holds Fresh Air Forum in Dover, N.H.

NEWS SUMMARY

The oldest rule in politics is "you can't beat someone with no one."

President Bush and Gray Davis are both vulnerable — the latter much more than the former.

What has those who want to beat them crying (and kept their supporters dee-lighted) are the current weakness of their current opponents.

The Democrats want a Clinton-without-a-zipper. The Republicans want a Reagan-who's-like-the-Gipper.

But/so on this day when the president (presumably to let off some political steam) is having a news conference, windows of opportunity are open.

Witness President Bush's re-elect number in the new USA Today /CNN/Gallup poll. It's at 47 percent.

And Roger Simon ponders as only he can: can Bush be beat? LINK

Witness the excitement the average Iowa Democrat will likely feel when hearing Howard Dean give it to ya real for the first time on the economy.

Witness Clinton himself, preparing for his first trip in a while to Iowa two weeks from now. (Oh, to watch him shake his billowy arms, wrap them around an Iowan and squeeze their shoulders … )

Witness the goose bumps Democrats got from listening to Joe Biden lay the smackdown on Bolten and Wolfowitz.

But Biden isn't a candidate. (Yet).

Clinton can't be a candidate again.

And Gore isn't running (yet) although The Hill teases him in a bit. LINK

Per Mark Penn's poll, Democrats have lost the tenuous trust they once built with white male voters.

And the excitement Iowa Democrats feel about Howard Dean is probably exceeded by the sheer joy Karl R. and Company take at witnessing the same thing.

The candidates Democrats seem to like aren't that well-known nationally.

And Bush's re-elect number exceeds that of any Democrat.

In California, all eyes are on Richard Riordan (okay: some eyes are on Senator Feinstein too), but let's see what kind of team he puts together, and what kind of campaign he is able to run this time.

Witness the visceral dislike even many Democrats feel toward Governor Davis

Witness the bare-bones budget deal struck yesterday, which will cut favored programs and which won't likely solve the problem.

Witness the gaggle of candidates — some with attractive names, some with attractive faces, some with attractive resumes — that want to get in.

But many of those candidates are (a) Democrats who won't buck Mr. Davis or (b) flawed, either in political character or in qualification level, or in other ways. (See the recall section).

The California Republican Party is less rudderless than it was before but still lacks a commanding presence to unify various factions.

The White House is tepid about a recall …

Today, aside from the presidential news conference, a highlight is Governor Dean's job creation plan roll-out.

A compelling economic message (beyond railing against Bush's spending and deficits) has been one of the real holes in the Dean oeuvre — and if he DOES come forward with an economic message that excites Democratic activists, he'll be the first in the field to pull that off.

See the Dean section for details, but here's a bit of the speech, courtesy of Mike Glover: ""Too many Democrats in Washington have become so afraid of losing that they have remained silent or only halfheartedly fought the very agenda that is destroying the democratic dream of America.'" LINK

"'The central goal of a President must be to speak to the core concerns of American workers and their families — adequate health care, an excellent education and the assurance that every American who wants one has a decent job at a living wage."

In today's recall news:

-- Two Democratic members of the California Congressional delegation urge Dianne Feinstein to run, indicating there may be a crack in the wall of Democratic unity.

-- Arnold turns 56 today and may have a decision about his candidacy. Richard Riordan continues to put together a possible campaign team.

-- A judge ruled to strike down a (minor) portion of the recall. A vote for a replacement candidate will now count irrespective of whether or not a voter voted on the recall matter itself.

-- the California Assembly passed the state budget plan and Governor Davis intends to sign it this week.

Senator Kerry campaigns in New Hampshire.

Senator Edwards participates in the 21st Century Democrats' Youth Leadership Summer Speaker Series today in D.C.

Reverend Sharpton is in D.C. today and will appear on CNN's "Crossfire" this afternoon.

Senator Lieberman, Senator Graham, Ambassador Braun, Representative Gephardt, and Representative Kucinich have no announced public events for today.

July unemployment numbers will be released tomorrow at 8:30 am.

California Recall:

Is the Democratic wall of unity beginning to crack?

In their must-read recall roundup, the Los Angeles Times' James Rainey and Jean Guccione report two Democratic members of California's congressional delegation are urging Dianne Feinstein to put her name on the ballot. LINK

"'It is no secret that Gov. Davis is in trouble, and I seriously doubt that he can survive the recall effort,' Dooley said in a statement. 'We, as Democrats, need to get behind a strong candidate.

"'It is unfortunate that the recall effort qualified for the ballot,' he added, but 'it is foolhardy for Democrats to gamble that Gov. Davis can pull this out.'"

"[Congresswoman Loretta] Sanchez, who was in San Francisco to take part in a meeting of Democratic strategists presided over by San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown, said she spoke Tuesday with Feinstein and that the senator was 'not inclined at this point to put her name in, though that doesn't mean she won't.'"

"Sanchez said she 'went through my list of reasons, that voters need a choice, and that choice would be to vote no on the recall and then vote for [Feinstein] as Plan B' in case the recall is successful."

Team Davis continues to appear confident Democrats will stay together. We wonder what it must feel like to hold your breath from now until August 9.

"'Democrats across California are as united as they can be in opposition to this right-wing recall effort,' said Peter Ragone, spokesman for Davis' campaign committee, Californians Against the Costly Recall."

The Rainey/Guccione duo also recap all of the day's recall news including: California GOP Chair Duf Sundheim laying down the law; Noelia Rodriguez may run the Riordan campaign ("'Dick is running,' said one Riordan confidant."); Bill Simon gets his nomination papers; Hillary Clinton is coming to town next week; and the federal court ruling in San Diego.

How can Gerald Parsky and Noelia Rodriguez both be mentioned in a single story about the recall and the White House continue to claim it is remaining wholly uninvolved?

Carla Marinucci and Mark Simon also write up the crack in Democratic unity for the San Francisco Chronicle. They report that Congresswoman Sanchez may be considering a bid of her own. LINK

"'We need to have a strong Democrat on the ballot. And the strongest would be Dianne . . . otherwise, I'll have to," she said in an interview. 'Stay tuned.'"

More Marinucci and Simon:

"Democratic strategist Bill Carrick — who has advised Feinstein — downplayed comments by Dooley and Sanchez, calling them 'understandable' because of party unease over the recall."

"'But people are going to recognize this is just not good for California,' he said, adding that Feinstein continues to regard 'the recall as radical and abusive.'"

They also write up the Democratic and Republican strategy sessions. And Mindy Tucker (who is very much looking forward to the president's upcoming California visit) describes Ms. Rodriguez' involvement with Mr. Riordan's potential campaign as something she is doing in a "personal capacity."

The Associated Press' Erica Werner also has Arnold's birthday as a possible decision day and looks ahead to the possibility of a recall race without Schwarzenegger or Riordan. LINK"'If Schwarzenegger doesn't run all eyes are on Riordan and the prayers of many are with him, because if Riordan and Schwarzenegger both don't run it'll be seen as a real blow to the recall,' said Kevin Spillane, a GOP strategist who worked for Riordan during his failed run for the Republican nomination for governor last year."

Rene Sanchez looks at the Schwarzenegger or Riordan dynamic on A1 of the Washington Post today. LINK

"What's clear at this point, according to Republican leaders, is that one of them is definitely going to launch a campaign against Davis, perhaps as early as Wednesday, that the other will fervently endorse. When that happens, the dynamic of the recall election, which has made California a nervous wreck, would be profoundly altered."