The Note: Bringing It Home

Stephanopoulos also Noted that many of the battleground states could all break the same way, and that "if the number of provisional ballots exceed the margin of victory, it could be days – weeks before we know who won."

On Today, Tim Russert said he doesn't know who has the momentum. Traditionally, Russert said that if an incumbent is below 50 percent it is very hard for an incumbent to win a race. But is this a traditional race, Russert asked, and will undecideds break for the challenger? Or is the specter of terrorism so great that they will go to the incumbent? Does Kerry have a big edge among newly registered voters that is not showing up in polls? Russert did some Electoral College math in front of a large Electoral College map. He used a pen.

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush vs. Kerry: the field:

The field generals for Bush-Cheney '04 and the Republican National Committee: Senior strategist Karl Rove, BC04 campaign manager Ken Mehlman, RNC deputy chair Maria Cino, RNC political director Blaise Hazelwood, RNC national field director Dan Gurley, Bush field director Coddy Johnson, Bush political director Terry Nelson.

The field generals for Kerry-Edwards '04 and the Democratic National Committee: Campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill, senior adviser John Sasso, DNC general election strategist Michael Whouley, senior strategists Doug Sosnik, Tad Devine, Jill Alper and John Giesser, DNC national field director Karen Hicks, Kerry campaign political director Steve Elmendorf, Kerry campaign senior political adviser Paul Rivera, strategists Teresa Vilmain and John Norris. (The leader of the Democrats' paramilitary force is Steve Rosenthal).

The pollsters and the admakers can stand down. The people listed above (and their armies) will probably decide who wins.

The Washington Post's Dan Balz and Tom Edsall on the field mobilization:

"In the Minneapolis suburb of Plymouth on Saturday, two GOP voters reported that the Bush campaign had already contacted them three times. In Ohio, Democrats said they had 27,000 people working phone banks and on Saturday night made 399,446 calls. A Bush campaign official said they were contacting 400,000 people a day in Ohio as well. In Pennsylvania, the Bush campaign planned to contact 2 million voters between Friday and Election Day." LINK

"The weekend blitz represented the culmination of many months of preparation by the campaigns, which along with their outside allies will spend $300 million and perhaps much more on targeting and turning out their voters. Longtime organizers say they have never seen so much money available for such an effort."

"Bush's budget for voter mobilization is about $125 million, at least triple that of four years ago, a knowledgeable official said. Kerry's field operation, run out of the Democratic National Committee, will spend nearly $60 million, more than doubling what the Democrats spent in 2000, campaign officials said."

"Supplementing the campaigns and party operations are outside groups, the biggest and potentially most important being America Coming Together, a pro-Kerry organization funded with 'soft money,' that is likely to spend $100 million to $125 million. Organized labor also will spend tens of millions to reach union members. "

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