The Note: 'Closer to 'Not' Than Yes'?

March 14, 2008 -- As you get ready for ABC's upcoming Democratic debate in Pennsylvania, there are six balls worth watching this Friday: Michigan, Florida, the McCain campaign's first engagement with Barack Obama's controversial former pastor, James Carville's op-ed in the Financial Times, charges that Hillary Clinton has overstated her work on S-CHIP, and the (new) fight for delegates in Iowa.

1. Michigan: 'A Compromise May Be Announced as Early as Today' (Detroit News):

The Detroit News reports that a Michigan compromise may be announced as early as today after a "blue-ribbon group" of four top Michigan Democrats met in Washington on Thursday with top officials in Clinton's campaign and by conference call, separately, with Obama's camp.

"Sources close to the negotiations said the talks were centering on a state-run, privately financed June primary of voters who would be willing to declare themselves Democrats."

"A compromise may be announced as early as today, the sources said, but they added that details must be negotiated, including figuring out how the party declaration would work, nailing down $10 million or more in private financial backing and securing legislative and gubernatorial approval to call the election."

Members of the blue-ribbon group are Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, D-Mich., DNC member Debbie Dingell, and UAW President Ron Gettelfinger.

The Detroit Free Press notes that "time is running short."

"Legislation allowing for a second presidential primary would have to be written and considered by the state Legislature before the House of Representatives goes on two-week spring break on Thursday. If the bills don't pass before then, they get put on hold until April 15 when the Senate returns from its two-week spring break. According to Democratic party rules, an election would have to be held before June 10."

2. Florida: 'Closer to 'Not' Than Yes':

The Florida Democratic Party promoted a plan Thursday for a new, mail-in presidential primary.

But Karen Thurman, the party chairwoman who offered the proposal, is sounding gloomy about its chances of winning acceptance: "I have a feeling that this is probably closer to 'not' than yes."

The Florida Democratic Party will continue to seek responses over the weekend from Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, the DNC, and others, but the New York Times reports that "if no consensus was reached by Monday the plan would most likely die."

Under the proposal, Florida Democrats would receive mail-in ballots in April and May. The vote would then be counted in early June after voter signatures were verified. The Florida Democratic Party would run the contest and pay the state to authenticate ballot signatures. The party would then pay a private firm to count the results.

The state party estimates that the cost would be somewhere between $10 million and $12 million. However, according to the Times, "the Florida Democratic Party raised only $5 million in all of 2007, and many Democratic lawmakers" in Florida "doubt that the money would materialize."

"There was one big problem" with the plan, per the Los Angeles Times. "Hardly anyone who mattered liked the idea."

The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder writes that at this point the biggest hurdle to a new primary in Florida is "the lack of a non-biased sponsor."

"Clinton allies have promised to put up their share of the money, but Obama allies in Florida, including his Florida finance chair, Kirk Wagar, are keeping their wallets closed."

3. Carville unloads:

In a must-read op-ed for the Financial Times, James Carville writes that "calls for resignation are becoming cries of 'wolf' in US politics."

He urges Samantha Power, the Obama adviser who was forced to resign after calling Hillary Clinton "a monster," to "come back to work."

He opines that Geraldine Ferraro should have been "dispatched to a cruise ship for a few weeks of sightseeing and spa treatments" rather than being forced off of Clinton's finance committee for suggesting that Obama would not be where he is if he were not African American.

And he defends the invocation of Obama's teen drug use by Clinton supporter Bill Shaheen.

"Was that a suggestive statement? Sure," writes Carville of Shaheen's Washington Post interview. "Was it out of bounds? Not egregiously. Are Republicans going to raise this issue should Mr. Obama become the Democratic nominee? You bet."

4. McCain Camp Circulates WSJ Clip on Obama's Controversial Pastor:

In its morning email to reporters, the McCain campaign is circulating a Wall Street Journal op-ed by Ronald Kessler in which he writes that Obama's association with controversial pastor Jeremiah Wright raises "legitimate questions" about Obama's fundamental beliefs about his country.

The New York Post's Geoff Earle writes up Obama's controversial pastor under a "9/11 Slur by Obama Rev." header.

Over at NationalReview.com, Kathryn Jean Lopez writes that the more Americans hear about Obama's pastor, "the more they're going to have the audacity to look beyond Obama's inspirational milquetoast speeches, probing what makes him tick, what influences him, who advises him, what he believes."

Keying off the Ferraro dust-up, Jennifer Rubin writes for Human Events that it would have been "unimaginable" for McCain to raise the question of whether Obama would have gotten where he is if he were a white male and that the media would have "vilified him had he tried."

"Now he need not do it," she writes. "The issue is out there and will either serve to torpedo Obama's prospects for the nomination or perhaps slowly simmer, possibly creating a backlash against Obama among key swing voters in the general election."