How Will Good News in Iraq Affect Obama Vs. McCain?

June 9, 2008 — -- Their strong views on the Iraq War helped them stand out from their competitors during the presidential primaries.

And Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama's sharp policy differences on the conflict continue to define them as the presumptive nominees prepare for the general election.

But the recent spurt of good news out of Iraq -- from the drop in American casualties to the increasing political stability of the Maliki government -- presents new challenges for both candidates and could change the dynamic of the race.

Recent success in Iraq "would seem to hurt Obama, but it seems as though many Americans have a fixed opinion about this and are impervious to changing facts," said James E. Campbell, chairman of the political science department at the University of Buffalo.

"It will take some time and continued success in Iraq to change those numbers."

Obama, who touts his early opposition to the war and was skeptical of the surge policy last summer that increased the number of American troops on the ground, has acknowledged that things have improved in Iraq. But Obama has said that good news only reinforces his argument that troops should start withdrawing from Iraq.

McCain, who repeatedly promoted a surge policy until the Bush administration took action, has basked in the apparent success of the surge and criticized Obama for supporting a withdrawal, telling ABC News' Charles Gibson, "I believe if we'd done what he said -- and I think it's becoming clearer to the American people -- there would have been chaos, genocide, and we'd have been back."

The facts on the ground have changed substantially in recent months. Violence across Iraq hit a four-year low in May, according to the U.S. military, and the number of American casualties that month were the lowest since the invasion.

Starting with security gains in Anbar province, the surge was replicated in parts of Baghdad and spread to some of the Shiite areas. And Iraqi security forces have taken the lead in several difficult operations in Basra, Sadr City and Mosul, reported ABC News' Jonathan Karl.

On the political front, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's government, after much stagnation, has never been stronger. And there has been some success on several of the benchmarks long-sought by the Bush administration as evidence of progress.

Last week, 100 delegations at a Stockholm conference scheduled to discuss the country's progess according to a five-year peace and economic development plan titled the International Compact with Iraq expressed their confidence in the country's recent changes. They adopted a declaration that stated they "recognized the important efforts made by the [Iraqi] government to improve security and public order and combat terrorism and sectarian violence across Iraq."