The Note: Donald Trump Is Still on Top (For Now)
— -- NOTABLES
--BY THE NUMBERS: A new CNN/ORC poll out this morning -- the second national poll since the first GOP debate -- found Donald Trump on top of the GOP field, with 24 percent support among registered Republican voters, ABC's BEN GITTLESON notes. Jeb Bush came in second with 13 percent, followed by Ben Carson with 9 percent; Marco Rubio and Scott Walker with 8 percent each; Rand Paul with 6 percent; Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina and John Kasich with 5 percent each; and Mike Huckabee rounding out the top 10 at 4 percent. The poll shows that there's a lack of a real gender gap for Trump -- he's leading among both men and women, although he does have slightly more support among Republican men compared to Republican women. It also found that he's gained the trust of Republican voters: "45 percent say they trust Trump more than any other Republican candidate on the economy," "44 percent say they trust Trump over the others on illegal immigration," and "32 percent trust him most to handle ISIS" -- "no other candidate comes close on any of these issues," CNN reports. http://cnn.it/1Lh9MF2
--ANALYSIS -- ABC's RICK KLEIN: Policy Trump is a more potent and dangerous version of the original Donald. His announcement of an immigration plan has (again) reordered the politics of the issue, with a series of hardline stances that are putting things back in the mix that had been set aside for months. His proposal to end automatic birthright citizenship -- something guaranteed by the Constitution - has no realistic show at happening. Yet Scott Walker came out in favor of it in Trump's wake. Trump's plan for deporting all 11 million undocumented immigrants may bring back GOP nightmares about Mitt Romney. But it's now going to be a measuring stick for primary voters. (How will he find them all? "It's going to be very easy," Trump told ABC News outside his jury duty assignment.) Ditto Trump's proposed wall with Mexico, which the other candidates might oppose on policy or fiscal grounds, even as Trump promises to send Mexico the bills. For a partial measure of GOP jitters regarding the party's frontrunner, imagine how many words can replace "immigration" in the following quote. "He has injected this into the presidential debate, and now the rest of them will have to run to catch up with him on the immigration issue," Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa, told The Washington Post.
WALKER TO INTRODUCE OBAMACARE REPLACEMENT: GOP presidential candidate Scott Walker is in Minnesota today where he will lay out his plan to repeal and replace Obamacare with what the Wisconsin governor is calling the "Day One Patient Freedom Plan." According to excerpts of his remarks as prepared for delivery, Walker will say: "On my first day as President, I will send legislation to the Congress that will repeal Obamacare entirely and replace it in a way that puts patients and their families back in charge of their health care -- not the federal government. I call it the Day One Patient Freedom Plan....If you've had it with Obamacare and you want someone who is going to do something about it, I am your candidate."
TODAY ON THE TRAIL with ABC's SHUSHANNAH WALSHE: Both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are in Las Vegas today, again trying to woo labor. The AFL-CIO is a critical endorsement and they will spend part of today trying to court them -- behind closed doors. On the other side of the aisle, it's another busy day at the Iowa State Fair. And Jeb Bush is talking national security in South Carolina while Scott Walker is giving a speech on how he will repeal Obamacare and replace it with his own plan.
THE BUZZ
with ABC's VERONICA STRACQUALURSI
CARLY FIORINA RESPONDS TO DONALD TRUMP'S COMMENTS ABOUT HER TIME AT HP. GOP presidential hopeful and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina responded Monday to comments Donald Trump made attacking her record at the company. "Donald Trump's gone after just about everybody. He's entitled to, obviously," Fiorina told ABC News in an interview Monday at the Iowa State Fair, ABC's KATHERINE FAULDERS and JOSH HASKELL report. "But I guess what I would say is that Hewlett-Packard is a publicly traded company, so the results are there for everybody to see. You can't hide them. You can't fudge the numbers. And the results are clear," she said. "I led the business from about $44 billion to almost $90 billion. We quadrupled the top line revenue growth rate in the middle of the biggest technology recession in 25 years. We tripled innovation to more than 11 patents a day. We went from lagging behind to leading in every product category in every market segment." Over the weekend, Donald Trump -- while repeatedly describing Fiorina as "nice woman" -- attacked her record in the private sector and her failed California Senate bid. http://abcn.ws/1HSx6Ee
CLINTON EMAILS: 305 MESSAGES NEED FURTHER REVIEW, COURT DOCUMENTS SAY. Intelligence community officials involved in the review of Hillary Clinton's emails have flagged 305 messages for further inspection, new court documents released Monday say. The emails were found in a sampling of 20 percent of the total 30,000 emails. The documents were filed by State Department lawyers in Washington DC federal court as part of an ongoing Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit, ABC's JUSTIN FISHEL reports. They were intended to provide an explanation as to why the State Department did not meet the requirement to release 15 percent of her 30,000 emails by July 31. http://abcn.ws/1E1kNdB
PROTESTERS INTERRUPT SCOTT WALKER'S SOAPBOX SPEECH. During Scott Walker's remarks on the Soapbox at the Iowa State Fair, the Wisconsin Governor encountered a group of 50 union protesters who traveled from Wisconsin to "challenge the governor and ask him questions." About 300 people attended Walker's soap box, but the protesters were scatter in the crowd and Walker was forced to acknowledge them a few times. Walker tried to use the presence of these protesters to his advantage by saying, "I'm not intimidated by you sir or anyone else out there." Walker talked about his confrontation with the unions in Wisconsin as well, according to ABC's JOSH HASKELL. His supporters waved Walker signs in the air to block out the protesters. The protesters are members of Service Employees International Union and the Fight for 15. They shouted "liar" and "not you" during his speech.
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
DONALD TRUMP REPORTS FOR JURY DUTY, GETS ' NO SPECIAL TREATMENT.' Although New York real estate mogul Donald Trump had to report for jury duty just like everybody else, it was no mundane ordeal, especially for fellow potential jurors. The GOP presidential candidate had to take a break from campaigning and report for duty at Manhattan Supreme Court Monday morning. Ultimately Trump was dismissed and not chosen for a case, but here's what happened when the Republican presidential candidate showed up for jury duty. ABC's BRAD MIELKE, INES DE LA CUETARA, AARON KATERSKY and VERONICA STRACQUALURSI have more. http://abcn.ws/1Mxt3oP
WHO'S TWEETING?
@ByronYork: In 2012, fact that many GOPers went from Bachmann to Perry to Cain to Gingrich to Santorum told us something: They didn't want Mitt.
@kasie: New CNN poll shows it's not just pundits getting it wrong on Trump. It's also GOP strategists who thought the debate was beginning of end
@KilloughCNN: Rand Paul fares best among voters under age 50, according to the new CNN/ORC poll http://cnn.it/1fmpKlw
@thehill: Mark Cuban says Clinton's college plan will actually make college more expensive: http://hill.cm/vtv06RK
@DavidMDrucker: .@philipaklein's expert breakdown of @ScottWalker's proposal to repeal & replace #Obamacare: http://washex.am/1J0Wl91
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