One Year From Caucus, Iowa Campaign Under Way

DES MOINES, Iowa, Jan. 17, 2007 — -- Many Iowa Democrats believe that Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., can do very well in that state's crucial caucuses almost exactly one year from now.

The freshman senator says he will make his formal announcement on whether he will run for president in 2008 on Feb. 10. And every signal from the Obama camp indicates he will run for the White House.

Already, he has taken the first step, announcing on his Web site Tuesday that he is creating a presidential exploratory committee.

"I certainly didn't expect to find myself in this position a year ago," Obama said on the site.

Obama's emergence as a player in this race has surprised other Democratic presidential hopefuls, such as former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who appeared last summer to be the early front-runner in Iowa.

Obama got a boost from a late December poll at a Des Moines TV station KCCI-TV. The telephone poll asked Iowa Democrats their most likely choice in the caucuses. Obama tied with Edwards at 22 percent.

Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack placed third at 12 percent. New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton was close behind with 10 percent, a slight disappointment to some of her supporters.

The poll also showed that, regardless of party, among all voters questioned, Obama led three Republican hopefuls: Sen. John McCain, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

That's all good news, of course, for Obama. If he runs, though, he will have to put together a strong campaign staff in this state.

And he could face formidable organizations from other top finishers in the poll. Edwards and Vilsack are expected to mount strong campaigns in Iowa, and so is Clinton who, although she has not announced she will run, has begun building support in Iowa.

Edwards is well known in Iowa; he came in second behind Sen. John Kerry in the 2004 caucuses. Edwards also seems to have solid backing from labor.

Both Edwards and Kerry came from behind in the final days of the '04 Iowa campaign to move ahead of former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean. Kerry, who has not announced whether he will make another presidential run, scored poorly in the TV station's poll.

Only 5 percent backed Kerry, who was outpointed by former Vice President Al Gore with 7 percent.