Tom DeLay Faces First Big Post-Indictment Test

March 7, 2006 — -- Texans head to the polls today, and all eyes will be on Rep. Tom DeLay's vote total in his Houston-based district.

Having vastly outspent his three Republican rivals and having carefully targeted the Republican faithful, the former House majority leader is expected to win the GOP's nomination to represent the 22nd district of Texas.

But political insiders will be closely watching today's results to see whether the "Hammer" wins going away or he just squeaks by.

Non-partisan political analyst Stu Rothenberg tells ABC News that it's "not impossible" that DeLay will be forced into a run-off against Republican Tom Campbell, his strongest rival. Texas law mandates a runoff if no candidate gets 50 percent plus one. If necessary, the runoff would be held April 11.

Assuming DeLay gets through the primary, Rothenberg thinks DeLay is in "huge trouble" come November. The Rothenberg Political Report rates DeLay as one of the 10 most vulnerable House incumbents in the country. The Democratic nominee will be Nick Lampson, a well-financed former member of Congress.

In 2004, the situation was quite different. DeLay sought his party's nomination unopposed. He won his November 2004 election by a 55 percent to 41 percent margin.

In addition to the Texas primary, today will also see the launch of "The Big Buy," a new documentary that chronicles Travis County prosecutor Ronnie Earle's legal pursuit of DeLay. The anti-DeLay film by Mark Birnbaum and Jim Schermbeck will also tie DeLay to disgraced ex-lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

DeLay will be in Washington on primary day. He will spend the evening at a fundraiser hosted by husband and wife Bill Paxon and Susan Molinari, who served together in Congress before becoming lobbyists.

Lampson's campaign manager issued a statement Friday rebuking DeLay's primary night plans.

"Rather than living it up with Washington lobbyists," said Lampson campaign manager Mike Malaise, "DeLay should be here trying to explain his legacy of debt, corruption and neglect to Texans."