Play the White House Staff Guessing Game

April 20, 2006 — -- After weeks of anticipating a big staff shake-up, the first major tremor hit the White House Wednesday. Press secretary Scott McClellan announced he would be stepping down in the next two or three weeks.

"The White House is going through a period of transition," said an emotional McClellan with the president by his side. "Change can be helpful, and this is a good time and good position to help bring about change."

The White House gracefully allowed McClellan his day of headlines: They have not yet announced his replacement.

The move is no surprise. After the new Chief of Staff Joshua Bolten chaired his first morning meeting three days ago, McClellan was the one to tell the media the White house is looking to "refresh and revive" the team. For months, Republicans close to the White House have been calling for major staff changes, especially an overhaul of the communications and congressional offices. Though few people on the inside believe McClellan is responsible for the president's troubles, it's believed to be one very visible way to signal a fresh start.

"The president is in serious political trouble," said Thomas Mann of the Brookings Institution, a nonpartisan research organization. "The prospects for November look dire. Right now Democrats have to be favored to regain control of the House, so under those circumstances you look to change the dynamic and one of the easiest ways of doing that is to move some people around."

Moving people is exactly what they're doing. In addition to changing the face behind the press podium, the president has brought in a new deputy chief of staff, Joel Kaplan, who will coordinate policy inside the West Wing. He's taking over a portion of Karl Rove's duties (more on that below).

Bush has filled Bolten's vacant post at the Office of Management and Budget with his former trade representative, Rob Portman, and has promoted internally to fill Portman's job. All these players were already in the administration --