In President Obama's Backyard, Tightening U.S. House Race a Bellwether

WASHINGTON, Oct. 18, 2010— -- Just how big is the impending Republican wave expected on Nov. 2? One bellwether could be the tightening U.S. House race in President Obama's own backyard.

Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly has represented Virginia's 11th District, across the Potomac River from the White House, since January 2009, cultivating what he calls a reputation as a pragmatic moderate.

In 2008, when Obama swept the Virginia 11th with 57 percent of the vote, Connolly defeated his Republican opponent, businessman Keith Fimian, by 12 points.

But in midterm election seeping with anti-incumbent and anti-government sentiment, a repeat match-up between Connolly and Fimian is looking much tighter.

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"I don't know that it's close," Connolly said in an interview. "It's always been a competitive race. This is a very swing district. So you can't take anything for granted."

Neither candidate has released details of their internal polling. And no independent pollsters have tracked the race. Still, several nonpartisan political strategists have pegged the race a toss-up.

"It's very, very close and my polling shows me up," said Fimian in an interview before a debate in Fairfax County last week. "[Connolly's] polling shows the same thing which is why he isn't releasing anything."

The Virginia 11th, one of the wealthiest districts in the country, is a must-win for Democrats if they want to retain a majority in the House -- and by many measures it should be a district they can hold.

The suburban Washington district has relatively low unemployment, at half the national average, and is home to thousands of federal government employees and their families who are less inclined to eschew the government programs or spending that sustains many livelihoods.

"But it's the congressional district in Virginia most responsive to waves," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. "It was built to be winnable by either party."

Voters there tend to be highly-educated, socially liberal, and fiscally conservative, polls show.

Still, Sabato noted that the fact that a conservative, tea party-backed candidate, who was rejected by voters two years ago, could now have Connolly under pressure is a sign to national Democrats of what could be coming.

"Fimian may be too far to the right for that very moderate district, but even candidates who are ideologically unsuited to a district can get elected in the right set of circumstances," he said.