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EXIT POLLS: Negative Campaign Tarnishes Clinton, Obama

Late Deciders Favor Clinton by a Wide Margin

One reason is that white Catholics in Pennsylvania were less apt to hold college degrees -- again reflecting Clinton's better showing among less-educated voters.

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Many Pennsylvania voters discerned the negative turn in the Democratic race for the White House, more blaming it on Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., than Barack Obama, D-Ill..
(AP Photo)

Bitter Race Damages Both Candidates

While two-thirds of voters said Clinton attacked Obama unfairly, 50 percent also said Obama unfairly attacked Clinton. Both numbers were higher than in previous primaries overall -- by 15 points for Clinton and 12 for Obama -- reflecting the negative tone of the campaign's closing days.

However, voters who said Obama attacked unfairly were more apt to punish him for it: Clinton won those voters by 67-33 percent; of those who said Clinton attacked unfairly, Obama won by a narrower 54-46 percent.

For many voters, moreover, it didn't matter; more than usual decided early. Sixty-one percent said they picked their candidate more than a month ago, compared with 45 percent in previous primaries this year.

Yet as noted, those who did decide late went for Clinton, reversing Obama's edge among those who decided in the previous week to a month.

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Most Expect Obama Will Win Nomination

Despite Clinton's victory in the state, overall expectations were on Obama's side. Fifty-five percent said they expected him, not Clinton, to be the party's eventual nominee.

And Obama supporters were more confident: just 5 percent of his supporters thought Clinton will win the nomination; by contrast, 23 percent of Clinton supporters said they think Obama will be the nominee.

If Obama does win the nomination, a quarter of Pennsylvania Democrats say they'd either support John McCain or sit out the contest entirely; if Clinton's the nominee, one in six said they'd either vote for McCain or sit it out.

That, however, may indicate the heat of the Democratic contest more than it predicts the future; the question's akin to asking a quarreling couple what they'll be doing for Valentine's Day. It might end ugly -- but they also may kiss and make up.

At the same time, there is a racial element to these views. Among white voters who said the race of the candidates was important in their vote -- albeit a small group, 12 percent of all voters -- just 55 percent said they'd support Obama vs. McCain.

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