Confidence Near Record Low
Ninety-five percent of Americans say the economy's in bad shape
Feb. 3, 2009 — -- A full month into 2009 consumer confidence is off to its worst yearly start in weekly polling since late 1985.
The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -52 on its scale of +100 to -100, 2 points from last week's record-tying low. It's averaged -51 so far this year, its worst opening month of a new year by far. The previous low for a full January was -46 in 1992.
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Indeed the CCI has been at or below -50 a dozen times since August – a level it'd previously seen just twice before, in May 2008 and February 1992.
Dismal ratings of the economy are leading the way: Ninety-five percent say it's in bad shape, the third straight week at this record high. Three-quarters call it a bad time to buy things and 57 percent rate their own finances negatively.
Other data echo the CCI. Fourth-quarter GDP was its worst since 1982, with economic output down 3.8 percent; "mass layoffs" in 2008 (cutting 50 or more workers at once) reached their highest annual total in seven years.
INDEX – As noted, virtually no one has a good word to say about the national economy; just 5 percent rate it positively, 34 points below the long-term average. Fewer than one in 10 have rated the economy positively for 13 weeks, matching the streak set in 1992.
Twenty-four percent rate the buying climate positively, 14 points from the long-term average, albeit 6 points higher than its record low in October and August.
In the third and traditionally highest rating, 43 percent rate their own finances positively, also 14 points off the long-term average. Its 28 weeks below a majority is surpassed by a 40-week run at that level in 1992-93.
TREND – The CCI's been in a downward trend since 2007, when it averaged -2 in Q1 and fell to -18 by Q4. That steepened to -31 in Q1 2008, continuing down to -50 in Q4 2008, its worst quarter on record. This year it's averaged -51, compared with a long-term average of -11. The index averaged -42 last year, its second-worst ever.
